Last pictures of the frost

This will be the last set of pictures being posted of the frost...Highly unlikely I will take anymore frost pictures this year as this was the killing frost..

Here are the reported temps and lows

As you can see most areas have had frost overnight/this morning...Many areas have had their killing frost/freeze....Info from the SFC OBS from the NWS...
WIZ001-002-006>008-014>016-023>028-301300-
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SUPERIOR ARPT CLOUDY 30 28 93 CALM 30.20R
ASHLAND CLOUDY 33 31 92 CALM 30.22R
6HR MIN TEMP: 29; 6HR MAX TEMP: 34;

HAYWARD CLOUDY 24 21 88 CALM 30.21R
6HR MIN TEMP: 22; 6HR MAX TEMP: 27;

SIREN SNOW 32 29 88 CALM 30.20R VSB 1/4
6HR MIN TEMP: 32; 6HR MAX TEMP: 38;

RICE LAKE FOG 28 28 100 CALM 30.21R VSB<1/4
6HR MIN TEMP: 28; 6HR MAX TEMP: 32;

LADYSMITH CLEAR 28 27 96 CALM 30.22R
6HR MIN TEMP: 28; 6HR MAX TEMP: 32;

EAU CLAIRE PTCLDY 30 30 100 NE6 30.19S WCI 24
6HR MIN TEMP: 30; 6HR MAX TEMP: 34;

NEW RICHMOND CLEAR 32 32 99 CALM 30.18S
6HR MIN TEMP: 30; 6HR MAX TEMP: 36;

OSCEOLA N/A 30 30 100 CALM 30.20R FOG
$$

More frost pictures

Ok I can't get back to sleep so I headed back outside to get more frost pictures..

Hard/killing frost

Hard to killing frost has hit much of the area as we have forecasted...So far temps here at the office have been to 28.6,will see if it drops lower when the sun starts to come up...Here are some pictures of the frost...More to come once it gets light outside...

Pleiades and Orion.

Still sicker than a dog eating grass,but took the Doc advise to get outside for a little bit...So I thought ok why not get pictures of the Pleiades and the Great Nebula Orion....
First off Pictures of the Pleiades or M45...First one is not zoomed in the second is zoomed in...Pleiades AKA the seven sisters is a open an clusters of stars..This open end clusters is still rather young,only 50 millions yrs old....

The Great Nebula Orion or M42 is found in Orion's sword,this Nebula is about 30 light yrs across and it's about 1500 light yrs away from Earth.....Both of these seem to be the most photographed areas of the sky...

Fall colors/still sick/no forecast

Yes I'm still sick got feeling this way Saturday night and it really hit me on Sunday,went to work for 2 hrs on Monday and ended up coming home,I stayed home today..Still not sure if I will make it to work tomorrow or not...Anyway I will not issue a forecast,if Paul feels up to he will...I did walk out to get my mail this evening I took my camera with so here are some fall color pictures,as you can see we are getting very close to peak color...Not the best pictures I took,was in a hurry to get back in the house,no not because of the cold either.

Hard frost/killing freeze on it's way

Not going to have to chance the forecast that much from what Dirk left me He is feeling under the weather.He didn't sound to good.

Hard frost/killing freeze is still on tap for Tuesday night.Before we get to that lets talk about tonight.

Clouds are forecasted to remain with us through the night,along with winds still on the gusty side.This shall keep frost from forming tonight.Though temps will fall into the upper 30s across our Central and Northern areas and either side of 40 down in our Southern areas.Tomorrow will star mostly sunny skies and lighter winds.However this will not help in the temp dept as lower 50s are in the deck for the Northern areas and middle 50s Central and Southern areas.Tuesday night hard frost and killing freeze is forecasted for parts of our Central and all of our Northern areas,all except close to Lake Superior.See Dirk's forecast below for point to point,As I totally agree with his line up for this hard/killing freeze.Lows will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s across said area,could see a few middle 20s in our cooler spots.Points South of Dirk's line temps will drop to the lower to middle 30s.So widespread frost is forecasted for them areas.
Wednesday will bring us warmer temps.Highs should reach for the upper 50s North to the lower 60s South.Wednesday night lows fall into the lower 40s North,and Central while middle 40s shall be had for the taken over our Southern areas.Rest of the week looks to be wet.Showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday and Thursday night.Then rain showers dot the area for Friday,Saturday,and Sunday.Temps will start to fall back off after Thursday.Highs by the weekend middle 50s,lows fall back into middle 30s to lower 40s.

Forecaster/Paul S

Winds,hard frost/freeze possible through parts of the area.

This system is not done with us yet...Today and tonight will feature more gusty winds along with much colder temps..Highs today shall top off in the middle 50s South with lower 50s Central and North...Lows on this last Monday of Sept fall into the upper 30s South Middle 30s Central and North...Winds will remain strong today and tonight...Today 20 to 30 MPH with gusts 35 to 38 or so South and Central Northern parts of the FA still could see gusts up to 40 MPH.Tonight winds do slack off some with gusts up to 30 MPH through the whole FA...Thinking is with clouds still FCSTD to be around and winds still strong frost won't be a problem tonight...Tuesday we see highs in the middle 50s South...Lower 50s Central and North...Winds will become lighter...Tuesday night we have a chance at widespread frost...So for areas that did not see their frost yet,looks to be sure bet they do Tuesday night....Central and Northern parts of the FA may very well see their killing frost Tuesday night...The NWS has issued a freeze watch for my Northern FA....Thinking is areas likely to see a hard frost/killing frost will be point North of Range to Barron over to Conrath line...Or mainly point along and North of a HWY 8 corridor...So the possibility of the growing season coming to end for parts of the Central and Northern parts of the FA is rather high ATTM...

Thanks everyone

Wow just checked out the stats on my blog over 200 hits late this afternoon through now...With the other hits through out today we had a total of 400 hits in one day...Thanks to our viewers and their support!

Strong winds

Stronger winds now pounding the office...Wind gusts now have hit 45 MPH....Small branches have been downed here at the office...Power is still flashing on and off...

Some pictures

Just some pictures...As you can see the box one..The mail box should be straight out not pointing towards the right....Also lots of leaves getting blown off the tress..Got pictures of that and the ground covered with leaves...Click on pictures for full size...

Strong winds

very strong winds now over taken the Western parts of my FA...Siren and Osceola coming in with wind gust of 44 MPH...New Richmond coming in at 40 MPH....Rice Lake coming in with 31 MPH..While 6 miles Northwest of Rice Lake...Here at the Weather Center we have wind gusts up to 35 MPH....Also small branches are been blown down...Temps in my Western FA have now dropped into the middle 50s....Power here at the office has been blinking on and off..All readings are from the 6 PM SFC OBS...

Radar with cold front

Radar grab then we drew the cold front in..Bv and SR really shows this rather well...Click on image to see full size...This is the second cold front to cross the area....

SHORT TERM FORECAST NUMBER 4

Temps have taken a hit here at The Weather Center...Temps right now is at 60.3° this is down by 7° from the top of the hour....The Weather Center's radar is still tracking showers and a few thunderstorms...The area that could see a few thunderstorms look to be over Southern Burnett,Northern Barron,Northern Polk,and Souther Washburn Counites...These storms should be moving into the are within the next 1/2 hour and should clear the said areas in an hour or so....Meanwhile other showers are effecting the most of my FA...Still watching very strong winds out over MN...Still expect to see this move into the area within the next hour or so...Winds still could reach gusts uo to 55 to 60 MPH range....This should lead to some tree damage through out the FA..Mainly over flat areas of the FA...Main cold front reaching from Central Pine Coutny down through the Twin Cities then reaching through Southeastern Sibley County MN....

SHORT TERM FORECAST NUMBER 3

We are watching very storng winds over MN winds have been up to 55 to 60 MPH with somw trees downed....We will see very strong winds pushing into my FA..Winds could reach 50 to 60 MPH...Some tree damage is sure a bet...

Cold front number 2

Cold front number has cleared the FA...Cold front number two will be moving through within the nest hour or two...Showers and thunderstorms are along this cold front...We will see wind increase even more after this front pushes through...

SHORT TERM FORECAST NUMBER 2

At 4:55 PM The Weather Center's Radar is tracking a line of showers and thunderstorms from Dunn County through Pierce County...Other showers are being tracked from Douglas,Barron,Burnett,Polk,and Washburn Counties....Activity is moving East/Southeast...

Severe thunderstorm...

THE NWS HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR TAYLOR COUNTY UNTIL 5:45 PM THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE NWS RADAR IS INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH....

Short term update Number1

Thunderstorms are pushing out of Northeastern Chippewa County into Taylor County...A line of thunderstorms have form along the cold front from Iron County through Price down into Taylor Counties..This line is pushing East slight Southeast.....An area of showers is now moving through Burnett County into Washburn County ...While scatted showers are in Douglas County....An are of Showers are now moving into Western Polk County,meanwhile so scattered showers are found in the Central and East areas...Another area of showers and a clap or two of thunder is found over St.Croix County and Dunn County,along with Pierce County....A larger area of showers is found out over Eastern MN from Aitkin County down through the Northern Subs of the Twin Cities....All this activity is moving East/Southeast...

Thunderstorm

At 3:24 PM this afternoon we had a thunderstorm form right over the office,this storm did not drop any rain here,however South,Southeast,and slightly east of the office rainfall amounts ranged from 0.2 to has much as 0.5....Winds have shifted to the West and are rather strong gust up to 20 MPH with gust here at the office 26 MPH...Looking at other SFC OBS...We see strong gusty winds through out the area...The CAA has not yet made it into my FA CLD FNT did pass through...We should see the CAA kick in over the next few hours..Still could see some showers and thunderstorms through the evening...Stronger storms have been out East of here as FCSTD..

Drought condition report

Despite the rainfall we picked up on Friday/Friday night the FA is under a extreme drought.As one drivers around the area you can see how this long term drought has took it's toll on the corn.Ears this year are small unlike other years.Farmers are worried that the corn won't reach mature levels before the first killing frost,which may happen for parts of my FA.See forecast for that.Drought conditions should slowly see improve as we head deeper into fall.This won't help the crops mainly the corn as many farmers through out the FA have reported to us that we needed more warm humid air and needed it sooner.Also not enough rainfall during the period when the corn needed it the most.Farmers are saying they my not break even on this years corn crop.However some of the other crops are doing rather well as we did get little rain when it was needed the most for them crops.Ok back to the drought improving.As we head more into fall.After we get our killing frost this will stop the vegetation from drinking up the what rainfall that happens.This will help with the rivers and Lakes along with the ground water supply.

Ok since there has been some debate to as some areas doing better than others we are forced into taken these steps now.Points North of a Balsam Lake to Canton over to Ladysmith have seen less rainfall through out the time frame from April through now.So these are the areas that have the worst impacts from this long term drought.Points South of said line are doing a little better as them areas did see a tad bit more rainfall.Mainly them areas did get the rain when it was needed the most.Dirk and I drove around most of the our FA looking at the corn crop and talking with many farmers.This is how we can up with said line above..Many Counties covered and many long miles covered.Not only did we drive around but we looked at a lot of radar date well into the late hours last night from April through now.This matches up rather well with our research we did yesterday.If we have no big systems effecting area next weekend we will have a detailed write up on the long term drought along with pictures.That should put the argument to rest.

Studies done by Forecasters Paul/Dirk.
Write up done by Forecaster Paul.
Forecast below done by Forecaster Dirk.
Pictures of Orion taken by Dirk.

Orion

Had to get some pictures of Orion this morning...As you can see it's rather windy here,and some high clouds moving in...Was nice and warm out despite the wind....

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI...This has changed some..

Last warm day we see until about Wednesday....Will push the frost threat back into Tuesday night,as Monday night look to be to windy for frost formation...More on that later....Temps do warm back up close to norms,however a stronger push of cold air is in store for next weekend....

SFC ANALYSIS....

This morning we find a very strong 992 MB low pressure system over Northern Canada...Meantime a cold front extends from the low into Central ND then curves back Northwest into Central to NW MT...We also find the system that brought rain to the area on Friday and some left over clouds to the most of the Central and Northern/Eastern areas is now over MI....

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT....

Low pressure is FCST to move drop out of Northern Canada..Low is FCSTD to deepen to around 988 as it pushes just North of Lake Superior by later today....This will be dragging a CLD FNT into and through the area this afternoon....Temps will be warm this morning then start to fall after the CLD FNT moves through..Will run with a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon..SFC heating should get under way this morning with partly CLDY skies...Dewpoints in the 50s...This should allow for mod INSTBY to form over the FA...Steep Lapse rates will also be in place through most of my Northeastern FA....May see a few severe thunderstorms over parts of Iron,Price,and Taylor Counties and points to the East of there..Main severe weather threat looks to be large hail and areas of damaging winds...Around the rest of the FA non severe thunderstorms possible along the CLD FNT.....Winds today will be rather gust even out ahead of the frontal boundary...Main show for winds will be later today through Monday night...Winds later today over the FA could gust up to 30 MPH with sustained winds from 20 to 25 MPH...Would not be shocked to hear of non thunderstorm wind damage later today....Highs today middle 70s South to the lower 70s Central to the middle to upper 60s North....Tonight will have to keep a slight chance of showers going through my Southern and Central areas...Better chance in my Northern areas...Winds will be a problem tonight with gusts once again up to 30 MPH through out my Southern and Central areas....My Northern Counties could see winds gust closer to 40 MPH as they are closer to the low....Lows tonight will fall into the 40 through out the FA.....Monday will still keep rain showers alive as the low dives Southeast into MI with wrap around moisture coming into play....Highs on you last Monday of Sept will be cold...Highs won't climb out of the 50s....Upper 50s South to middle 50 Central and Northern areas....Winds still will have a strong bite to them...Sustained winds of 20 to 25 MPH with gust up to 30 to 35 MPH in my Southern and Central areas...While my far Northern Counties could see winds gust up to 50 MPH...Monday night....Winds still gusty up to 25 MPH....Temps do fall into the upper 30s under partly CLDY skies....With winds remaining strong temps should remain warm enough to keep frost at bay.....

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT....

Looks to be a rather peaceful day through out the FA winds will be lighter and skies will be sunny....Highs on Tuesday in the middle 50s North to to the upper 50s Central and lower 60s South....Tuesday night under clear skies and light winds temps will drop like a large rock into lake...Lows in the North could reach the upper 20s to lower 30s so..Could see our first killing frost up there...My Central area temps fall into the middle 30s...Am going to cut them even lower for points North of a Balsam Lake to Cameron to Bruce line..Were temps here could fall into the lower 30s...Most of them areas have already see their first frost back in August....So this may also be their first killing frost...Points South of that line middle 30s seem to be plausible..My Southern areas will run with middle to upper 30s....

REST OF THE WORK WEEK.....

Temps warm back up into the lower to middle 60s through out the area then cool back off into the 50s for the upcoming weekend lows in the 40s to lower 50s ...Then 30s once again for the weekend...

Western/Northwest WI forecast

Let the roller coaster ride begin....cool,warm cold,warm,then cold next weekend....Also showers and thunderstorms this afternoon,tonight,showers Saturday,showers and storm Sunday,rain Monday....Then dry through Wednesday evening with more showers and storms Wednesday night through Thursday-Fridays time frame......

CURRENT CONDITIONS...

At this 4 AM HRS Temps through out the FA for the most part are in the lower to upper 50s...Hayward reports a cool 42° The warm spot is Superior they are reporting a temp of 61°...Skies for the most part are clear...Winds are calm..

SFC/UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS....
This morning we find a weak cold front over our far Northern WI FA Counties...A 1024 MB high pressure system is center over MI....Upper level low pressure over NE/KS...What does that all mean in the short term FCST ? lets see shall we...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.....

Upper level low is FCSTD to push clouds into the FA through out this morning,followed by a chance of showers and thunderstorms....Things to get a little tricky in the rainfall dept...Heaviest rain is FCSTD to be in Southern MN..This may hold down our rainfall amounts this far Northeast...The 3 day QPF off of most of the models showing my FA could see around a 0.25...Also my Northern and far Northeastern areas of the FA could pick up as much as 0.75 maybe an 1.00..Once again this is a 3 day total which would take us through Sunday....Today showers and thunderstorms will become more of a possibility...Highs upper 60s to lower 70s seem to be plausible....Tonight upper low and short wave will still be in the area so will keep showers and storms alive...INSTBY will be lost for will drop thunderstorms after 11 PM or 12 AM HR....Lows tonight will fall back into the lower 50s once again....Saturday upper level low/shortwave still close to the area to keep a small chance of showery type of rain ongoing...Thinking is as of right now to pull the showers from Saturday night(which I did)...So will run with MSTLY CLDY skies...Will keep lows in the lower 50s per model guidance and past few night's trend...See no reason to deviate from that.....

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY....

Be ready for a wind jammer of a system...A 996 MB low pressure system is FCSTD to move through Canada to just North of Lake Superior as it does this thing really deepens...pressure falls to around 982 MBS by 000 Monday...While the low is on the move it will drag a strong cold front into and through the FA....There will be some INSTBY ahead and along the cold front so will have to run with some thunder...Rainfall chances seem to be on the low end with this frontal boundary...Best forcing/lift will be North so better chance at showers and storms up there....Winds will be come a problem on Sunday...We could see winds gust up to 30 MPH after said cold front pushes through...The strong winds will hold through out Sunday night also.....Highs on your Sunday will be slightly warmer as WAA kicks in before the cold front pushes through...Highs lower 70s...Lows Sunday night with CAA working into the area fall into the lower 40s North to Middle 40s elsewheres.....Monday will keep a small chances of showers around with CAA ...Highs on Monday upper 50s to lower 60s...May stay in the 40s up in my Northern FA.....Monday night skies clear out and winds become light to calm...This is setting the stage for a possible frost through out my North Central to Northern areas...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Dry conditions are FCSTD with warming temps....Highs on Tuesday should be in the lower 60s,upper 50s North....Lows in the lower 40s seem the way to run...No threat of frost on Tuesday night.....Highs on Wed warm to upper 60s may see some 70s around......Next chance of rain comes in Wednesday night's time frame....More on that through out the weekend...

Fall colors

despite the warm temps we have been having the fall colors over the last few days have really taken off big time...

Much colder air on it's way

Colder air will over take this warm weather we have been enjoying for some time now...Also very windy conditions will become a problem for Sunday after a strong cold front pushes through....Frost is possible on Monday night...

TODAY...

Today will be the last real warm day we see for a awhile...Under mostly sunny skies temps should reach for the middle to upper 70s....Tonight we will start to see the effects of an upper level low moving NE this will increase the clouds...Lows tonight drop to the lower 50s...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....

Showers and afew thunderstorms are forecasted to give the FA some much needed rainfall....However still will be rather light,as model's QPF is only painting around a tenth of an inch....May see higher amounts with any thunderstorms that do form....INSTBY is rather meaker still enough to word thunder in the forecast for Friday...Should see just showery type weather for Friday night and Saturday...Temps will be held down to do the clouds and rain...Upper 60s to lower 70s seem to be way to run with this...Lows lower 50s...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY....

WAA kicks in ahead of a strong cold front so temps still in the lower 70s,may hay to warm them up a click or two....995 MB low pressure over Canada is forecasted to move Northern Lake Superior...This low is forecasted to deepen to around 982 MB by time it reaches said area...This will drag a strong cold front into the area on Sunday...Winds are forecasted to become Northwest and become strong....Could see winds up to 20 - 25 knts...May see some showers and a few thunderstorms along the cold front...ISNTBY is some what low,but once again enough to make me add thunder into the forecast ATTM..Rain chances are on the low side,Thinking in the more North you head the better chance at rain..As forcing and lift is better up there..Lows Sunday night fall into the upper 40s thanks to clouds and a small chance of rain...

MONDAY...

Today will feel like fall...Highs under PC to MS skies will be hard pressed to make to 60....Monday night under clear skies and light winds frost will be possible across our Northern and Northern Central FA......

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....

Still dry with a slow warming trend...Highs reach for the middle to upper 60s by midweek,while lows warm to the middle 40s....

Cold air on its way...

For those of you who like fall,don't worry it's on it way....Main show will happen next week....Meantime we will still have temps above normal as we kick off fall...Temps should remain above normal today through Friday....Then a cool down is forecasted for this weekend...Temps today through tomorrow shall be in the middle to upper 70s....Fog this morning will burn off before the 8 - 9 AM hr...
Should see partly to most sunny skies both days..

Friday through Saturday...

Models now seem to have a better handle on the closed upper level low that is poised to give the FA a better shot at rainfall..May see a few more thunderstorms as this system begins to pull towards the area on Friday...INSTBY is rather low however enough to add thunderstorms to the forecast.....Highs lower 70s for Friday with lows in the lower 50s....Saturday highs should top out around the middle 60s....

Sunday and Sunday night....

Strong cold front shall be pushing into the area,this will bring in much cooler temps to start the new work week....However for Sunday we will warm into the lower 70s out ahead of the cold front...Models showing a windy day across the area....May see a small chance of showers along the cold front.....Sunday night the CAA really cranks up lows fall into the upper 40s....

Monday through Tuesday....

More cold air on tap....Temps hold in the lowers 60s both days...While lows hold in the lower to middle 40s...Should be dry.....

Models are hinting at more warm air heading back for the area middle of next week...We will see how this plays out before jumping on the band wagon.....

2009/2010 winter outlook

Many have asked us when we will have our winter forecast out for this upcoming winter..So here we go with what The Weather Center is forecasting....Remember no one single factor is making this forecast,there are many factors,along with what we have seen with the wildlife...So lets get right to it....

As many of you know our forecast area has been well below normal in temps this summer(yes one can call it a year without a summer)...Also we have been well below normal in the precip dept....We can thank the volcanoes that have thrown tons of ash into the atmosphere,along with the onset of EL Nino...After looking back into out data sheets and snowfall and temp reports we found out when we have a cool summer we normally have below normal temps...The data also shows us our FA has had above normal snowfall following a cool summer...Last year was a prime example of it.....However now we need to look at the most recent trends....We are seeing a trend towards warmer weather that has started in Sept...We are still locked under dry conditions....Now if we look back into the trends of the last few winters,we find that our winters have been snowier and colder than normal....What is interesting the CPC is forecasting a warmer winter for our forecast area and near normal snowfall....If one reads the Farmer's Almanac they are forecast below normal temps and less snow....If one looks at the wildlife you will see signs pointing to a long hard winter.....Between Paul and myself there has been some heated discussion as to what we think will transpire this winter...After going back and forth on this we have reached a decision....

Here is The Weather Center's winter forecast...

We are calling for near normal temps through much of this upcoming winter...Not saying we won't have warm spells or cold snaps,just the ave winter temps shall avg on either side of normal....
Snowfall outlook...We are going to run with slightly above normal snowfall this upcoming winter...Most of this will come towards winter's end....Once again we are not saying we won't have any big snowstorms nor are we saying we won't have periods of dry spells..We are however saying when you avg the entire winter we shall be slightly above normal in snowfall......We do reserve the right to change this forecast during the month of October....After October forecast will stand!....

Side note...

No one really knows what will take place this winter until we get into winter...Our forecast is based on a number of factors...As we all know the weather can change in a blink of an eye...

Forecasters....Dirk/Paul.....

Drought update...

Severe drought still holding onto my FA....Lakes and rivers still well below normal water levels...Some drops have been noted over the last week....A few good things that will slowly start to effect the area and help lessen the drought conditions..Mainly after the second week of Oct..1. the sun is getting lower so not as strong,along with shorter daylight hrs....2. some of the vegetation is slowing dying off,along with tress not drinking up as much water as a few weeks ago.......However this will not help the corn nor would any amount of rainfall as most of the corn through out the area is past the denting stage...Some corn fields turning brown from the long term drought...As this point in time any rain would not help the corn..Also we are getting closer to the killing frost,only thing right now for farmers to hope for would the corn can mature before we get the killing frost...However any rainfall would help the soil and this will also slowly start to help out the lakes and rivers...What is interesting despite the above norm rainfall in August Western/Northwest WI is still running from 6 to 12 inches below normal(from April till now)...Here at The Weather Center we are down to 10.97 inches below normal rainfall.......Drought conditions look to be increase in intensity through this coming work week....Doesn't look to get much better either,as the 8 to 14 day forecast is still calling for temps to be above normal and precip to be below normal...With any luck we will have a wetter fall and winter...Winter meaning not above avg in snowfall,however just more moisture content to the snow compared to last winter...

Western/Northwestern WI forecast

The unbelievable weather continues....Temps today so far have been in the middle to upper 70s with a few 80s thrown into the mix through out the entire FA....How much longer can this weather pattern hold you ask....Lets find out shall we.....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

At the 3 PM hr looking at the SFC OBS we find temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s...lower 70s found up in Superior..Dewpoints for the most part are holding in the upper 50 to lower 60s....Winds for the most part are out of the South under 10 MPH skies are mostly sunny,a few clouds here and there noted by the VIS satellite image.....

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY....

Not much to really talk about for this time slot....1030 MB high pressure over Northern MI has a strong hold of the FA....Weak frontal BNDRY will have a hard time working any further Eastwards as the high will be blocking it....This will keep us under clear to partly cloudy skies tonight...Lows dip back down into the lower to middle 50s....Sunday the area remains under the firm grip of the high pressure,setting up another remarkable day through out the Northwoods...Highs will reach back towards the upper 70s,once again a few 80s thrown into the mix...For the most part skies should remain mostly sunny,though clouds will be on the increase as we head towards the late afternoon early evening hrs out ahead of a cold front ...Sunday night should be mostly cloudy with lows lower to middle 50s once again....

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.....

Cold front slowly starts to work towards the FA at the same time a weak area of low pressure will be riding NE along said front...Moisture does increase out and ahead of this system....INSTBY still looks rather low however enough to add a few ISO thunderstorms in to the forecast for Monday afternoon....Temps on Monday still look to remain in the middle 70s through out the FA.....Monday night we still see some showers around,lows in the middle 50s seem to plausible....Tuesday will keep a chance of showers going as we will be close enough to the SFC front and upper level low to our South.....Temps on Tuesday drop into the lower 70s....

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.......

Back into the dry condition we go again....temps will slowly fall from the middle 70s to lower 70s by late week....Lows fall from the lower 50s to the upper 40s.....Though it may feel cold temps will still be above normal.....

Western/Northwestern WI forecast

Just as real fast look at this unbelievable weather we have been having...How much longer can it last ?...

This early morning we find a frontal boundary slow working it way across the FA,this may kick off a few widely scattered showers before the 8 AM hr...Other than that back into the sunshine we head under partly cloudy skies....Temps today still will reach for the middle 70s some spots could see close to 80....Winds have or will switching to the NE/E this will help usher drier dewpoints into the area....Tonight under clear skies temps will fall afew degrees cooler than last night lows of the middle to upper 50s...So will stay somewhat close to model guidance of the lower to middle 50s across the FA...

The weekend outlook...

Saturday temps still hanging around the middle 70s for highs with lows in the middle 50,as Southerly winds kick back in,this will allow for dewpoints to climb back into the upper 50s to lower 60s once again...Sunday thinking model guidance may be to cool,it's calling for lower 70s as of right now...Am going to run with middle 70s once again...Still sunny skies will run with and iron fist....Sunday night a system will be moving towards the area this could bring us a small chance of showers.INSTBY is rather low so will leave out thunder for now.....Lows should be in the lower to middle 50s...

Outlook for the new work week...

Interesting weather pattern change setting up....A cold front is FCSTD to move into and through the area Monday/Monday night...This will bring us our best chances of rain,however does look to be a sight risk of rain at this point in time...Lets hope this changes....Temps do cool back off to near normal values through this time frame....Back into the dry weather we go once again after a small chance of rain on Tuesday...Once again INSTBY looks rather null so will leave thunder out for Monday through Tuesday....

Will have a more detailed forecast tonight or tomorrow morning,also will look at the drought conditions for the entire FA...Also this weekend will have the long awaited winter outlook for the FA...All kinds of great things coming this weekend...You will want to tune back in.....

Silver Lake 09/12/09

As you can see Silver lake keeps dropping...Most lakes around the FA are really low..Some of the smaller ponds/swamps have dried up...See my other posts through out the spring and summer to compare how much this lake has dropped in water levels..

Very dry forecast/updated drought conditions

Wow,unbelievable,awesome,remarkable,pleasant,and nice...Any of these words have describe the weather over the last week and this weekend....This trend will hold through midweek,though temps shall cool back down closer to if not at normal values....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

At this 5 AM hr temps across the FA are in the middle to upper 50s ..Warm spot if you can believe this is Superior,and Ashland they are reporting 59°..Dewpoints across the area are running close to the air temp,which brings the RH levels from 94 to 100 % so fog is the rule this morning,some rather dense...The NWS does have a dense fog advisory in effect for my Central and just about all of my Northern Counties,this is out until 9 AM this morning....

SFC ANALYSIS

FA is lock under a 1022 MB high pressure...We find a couple areas of low pressure out over the Western Rockies...Meantime down South we see a 1008 Low pressure on the SE Coast of TX with a FNT BNDRY reaching Eastwards up into Northern FL..1002 low pressure is center just North of ME with a trailing cold FNT reaching as far West towards NE WI........

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....

Models still holding on strong to the warm air through this time frame 850 MB temps pushing the 12c to 15c across the FA this will yield to temps in the lower to middle 80s across the area,warmer temps South some what cooler temps North...Lows through this time frame hold onto the middle 50s for the most part....Fog is going to reform once again during the over night hrs....Dry conditions will be the rule.....

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.....

Temps do cool back off into the middle 70s for this time frame as the upper level low starts to move Eastwards...This will push a shortwave/trof into and through the FA....Models are in good agreement on keeping precip out of the FA...So will keep with the trend and run with dry conditions...The drought is still much alive through out the entire FA...More on this later....Lows through this period hold from the lower to middle 50s...Normal high temps range from the middle 60s to upper 60s to low 70s dependant on where you are in the my FA...Nevertheless temps still should be running above normal......

Side note....6 to 10 day FCST is calling for temps to be above normal with below norm precip....8 to 14 day outlook is calling for temps to become normal with precip still below normal for the area....

DROUGHT CONDITIONS.....

Severe drought still hanging on hard to the FA....Still getting reports of wells drying up through parts of Barron County...Lakes through out the FA are near or below record levels some date back to the 1930s...Will try to get more info on this...This forecast comes from the CPC,forecast was issued on 09/03/09....This forecast runs through 11/09....CPC is calling for improvement in the drought conditions as of this time the their forecast was issued...The new FCST will be coming out this week....There has been talk by some forecasters that we may need up going into a extreme drought if we don't see any rainfall this week....Farmers across the areas are reporting corn is behind in schedule,and ears are rather small....So if we don't see any good rainfall amounts before the first killing frost/freeze corn yield will be well below normal...Also what is rather interesting...Seeing this myself and also talking with areas framers across the entire FA...Hay crop this year was a good one...We got the much needed rainfall at the right time for the hay,unlike the corn....Also corn needs hot humid weather to really produce....Unlike hay and your yards cooler temps seems to work rather well for them...Some framers reported oats harvest was below yields...While others said they did ok with near norm yields...All dependant on where you live in our FA

Fall color post Saturday 09/12/09

These pictures come to from The Weather Center's backyard in Barron County,
NOTICED your colors may or may not be better in your areas....Also I'm not the one who knows a lot about trees,just maples and oak,So for more info on the trees that may be changing see Derek's fall color post on his blog...As he is the pro in this field....

DRY COLD SUMMER

Where you cold this past summer ? how about dry ? Yes this summer if you want to call it that is going down as the cold and dry...Some are saying a year without a summer I do agree as the stats have showing through out my post...Here is a rather great link to check out for info about this cold dry summer for the entire forecast area..
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090910_summerstats.html

Weekend forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

WOW where has this weather been all summer?...Warm humid air over the last week sure did feel nice...The good news is the warm temps will hold through the weekend and through midweek of the upcoming work week...Details below....

NO TIME FOR CUNNRENT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...

SFC/UPPER LEVEL ANAYLSIS....

Stable air still remians locked over head...This has kept the rain well to the West of the FA out over Western MN...Also helped in drying up a few FNTS that never made it this far East...The upper level low we talked about the other day,is FCSTD to take a track I have not seen in a very long time...More on that in a few,however this will allow temps to remain warm,above normal...Norms for this time of year 72°
Upper level high pressure is forecasted to reamin in control of our weather,however we may see a slight chance at a few showers/thunderstorms as an trof tries to push into the area,Will run with this through Sat...Meanwhile the 500 MB low is FCSTD to move South into ND,then it drops into SD,before heading SW.yes I said SW..Into NE WY by 00Z SUN upper level low is FCSTD to be in Central WY...By 12z SUN this low is then FCSTD to lift Northwards into Southern MT..Low then heads into Canada before moving NE....So this is setting the stage for yet another warm weekend for the FA...Only fly in the soup shall be the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms....

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT....

Will run with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms as a trof tries to move towards the area...However I did think about leaving the FCST dry...Highs today push towards the upper 70s,lower 80s possible....Lows tonight drop back into the middle to upper 50s...Sat...Will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms alive...Highs should be like today...More clouds shall be hand though...Sat night temps cool into the lower 50s.....Fog will still be possible like it has been all week....

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Highs will start in the upper 70s to around 80,cool off into the middle 70s by Tuesday..Lows in the lower 50s....Looks to be dry...So lets hope we can get some much needed rain fall today and Sat.....

No time to look ahead....

ISS & Discovery flyby

Tonight at 8:15 PM the ISS & Discovery did there flyby...Here are some pictures I took on this warm evening...Click to see full size.

This morning's pictures

A little of everything this morning..I got the sunrise,fog,and fall colors,which has you can see have been changing at a fast pace...See my other post to see how fast things are coming along....

Forecast for Western and Northwestern WI

Forecast problems...Fog this morning...Then rain chances from Wednesday through Sunday....Then temps become a problem next weekend....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Tempsat the 6 AM hr for the most part are in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the FA.Areas of fog also a problem early this morning...Some of it is quite dense..Not a widespread fog,nonetheless one should be albe to run into a thick fog bank from time to time..This will be lifting over the next hr or so.Winds rather calm at this hr....

SFC/UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS.....

500 MB charts showing large upper level ridge in place across the FA,as been the case for the last several days...Upper level low way down in Central IL won't have any effect of the FA....SFC charts showing SFC low/trof over Southeastern MO..This will not be effecting the FA....SFC CDFNT confined to Canada just North of the MN border....This front should be pushing Northwards as a WRMFNT..Mean time we also find a FNTL BNDRY over Eastern MT reaching back into ID...This will prove to be our next weather maker....

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.....

FA still locked under a large upper level ridge..This will insure the FA MSTLY sunny skies today....Areas of fog should burn off rather fast after sunrise..Southerly winds will also help to lift the fog out..Temps today should range from the middle 70s North to around 80 South....Lows tonight fall back into the 50s....Tuseday same conditons will apply areas of fog in the early morning hrs then MSTLY suuny skies the rest of the day...Highs will be same o same...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

CLDFNT starts to work Eastwards through MN by 12z Wed this frontal BNDRY should be getting closer to knocking on our door step...This will help draw more moisture into the area,as of now INSTBY looks rather weak,nevertheless should be enough for thunderstorms....As far as strong to severe thunderstorms goes...Looks slim as cloud cover will hold INSTBY in check....Highs willbe cooler middle 70s seem plausable with clouds/rain/storms around...Lows in the middle 50s should work out fine...Thur & Fri will hange onto to a slight chance of showers,maybe a thunderstorm or two on Thur...Highs both days around the middle 70s lows in the 50s....

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

500 mb charts showing an upper level low/closed off low pressure dropping out of Canada...This is FCSTD to make camp over the FA....This will set the stage for off and on rain showers and temps falling back to below norms once again....Highs middle 60s Central and South..Lower 60s North....Models have been showing this warmer than the last few runs...So with any luck by time we reach the weekend we can be talking about temps in the 70s....Ok a little wishcasting going on there....This cold dome should last right into early the following week....

why don't we post air Quality info

Many have been asking this question today.....
Reason is this we don't have no way of really known what it is here at the The Weather Center...So will just leave that to the WI DNR..Though the watch has been cancelled as of 5:20 PM...For info on air quality see the WI DNR or call 1-866-324-5924.....As this weather blog will not carry info on this topic...Our office only covers the weather,We don't have no way to tell what the air quality is over the FA if we don't have the instruments we won't cover it! safe way to run this blog as we have to many viewers...We don't want wreck what everyone has been saying....Also we have have been voted best weather blog in Western WI thanks to our viewers.Dirk will have more info on this through out the week I'm sure...Don't even know if he knows this yet...So why screw up a good thing by talking about something we can't measure....
Forecaster Paul

The forecast(fast)

Enjoy this remarkable weather it won't last much longer...Temps next weekend will be lucky to hit the lower to middle 60s....also side note many have emailed me about the August recap..Yes it is up and has been since the 1st of this month...
Upper level ridge will hold on to the FA through Tuesday....Temps will be normal to a few degrees above normal...By Tuesday we will see a cold front slowly moving towards the area,as the way it looks right now this front shall still be out over Western MN maybe into Central MN...However clouds will be on the increase..Wednesday looks to be showers and thunderstorms around,as the cold front moves closer and then pushes through the area...Will keep a small chance of showers and storms into Wednesday evening...May see a few showers and storms around for Thursday...Another stronger cold front is forecasted to push into and through the area on Friday/Friday night.So will hold onto the chance of showers..This cold front will usher in colder air for the upcoming weekend...Highs on Tuesday will range from the middle to uppper 70s..Then drop into the middle 70s may see some lower 70s by weeks end...Then like stated before lower to middle 60s for highs next weekend....
The air quality watch has been cancelled...For the best info on this see the WI DNR website....
Forecaster Paul...

Silver Lake

As you can see with all the rain we got in the last few weeks it sure din't help out the areas lakes at all...Most areas are still running from 6 to 8 inches below normal in the precp dept since jan 1 09...Temps this weekend have been above normal during the day,and below normal at night....Did do digging into the heating and cooling degree days..Found this rather interesting...Let talk about cooling degree day first...From Jan 1st through now....there as only been 293 the normal value is 537 this is -244 below normal...Last year he had 387 cooling degree days that was-150 below normal...So the last 2 years temps have been well below normal..Lets now talk about heating degree days...Was your heating bill more this year...This would be why... Since Jan 1st there has been 107 heating degree days normal value is 64...
this is 43 above normal..Last year we had 44 degree heating days which still buts us at 21 above normal....Normak temps for today high of 74 low of 52...Record high for today is 100 set back in 1922..That record will be safe,though temps will be above normal today...Record low is 37 set back in 1988..This record is also safe...lows tonight should be either side of normal.....Like all od my pictures click to see full size!

Tonight's sunset

Once again the area was treeted to a very nice sunset,yes I was out there getting pictures..Here are a few...