Sunday, September 13, 2009

Very dry forecast/updated drought conditions

Wow,unbelievable,awesome,remarkable,pleasant,and nice...Any of these words have describe the weather over the last week and this weekend....This trend will hold through midweek,though temps shall cool back down closer to if not at normal values....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

At this 5 AM hr temps across the FA are in the middle to upper 50s ..Warm spot if you can believe this is Superior,and Ashland they are reporting 59°..Dewpoints across the area are running close to the air temp,which brings the RH levels from 94 to 100 % so fog is the rule this morning,some rather dense...The NWS does have a dense fog advisory in effect for my Central and just about all of my Northern Counties,this is out until 9 AM this morning....

SFC ANALYSIS

FA is lock under a 1022 MB high pressure...We find a couple areas of low pressure out over the Western Rockies...Meantime down South we see a 1008 Low pressure on the SE Coast of TX with a FNT BNDRY reaching Eastwards up into Northern FL..1002 low pressure is center just North of ME with a trailing cold FNT reaching as far West towards NE WI........

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....

Models still holding on strong to the warm air through this time frame 850 MB temps pushing the 12c to 15c across the FA this will yield to temps in the lower to middle 80s across the area,warmer temps South some what cooler temps North...Lows through this time frame hold onto the middle 50s for the most part....Fog is going to reform once again during the over night hrs....Dry conditions will be the rule.....

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.....

Temps do cool back off into the middle 70s for this time frame as the upper level low starts to move Eastwards...This will push a shortwave/trof into and through the FA....Models are in good agreement on keeping precip out of the FA...So will keep with the trend and run with dry conditions...The drought is still much alive through out the entire FA...More on this later....Lows through this period hold from the lower to middle 50s...Normal high temps range from the middle 60s to upper 60s to low 70s dependant on where you are in the my FA...Nevertheless temps still should be running above normal......

Side note....6 to 10 day FCST is calling for temps to be above normal with below norm precip....8 to 14 day outlook is calling for temps to become normal with precip still below normal for the area....

DROUGHT CONDITIONS.....

Severe drought still hanging on hard to the FA....Still getting reports of wells drying up through parts of Barron County...Lakes through out the FA are near or below record levels some date back to the 1930s...Will try to get more info on this...This forecast comes from the CPC,forecast was issued on 09/03/09....This forecast runs through 11/09....CPC is calling for improvement in the drought conditions as of this time the their forecast was issued...The new FCST will be coming out this week....There has been talk by some forecasters that we may need up going into a extreme drought if we don't see any rainfall this week....Farmers across the areas are reporting corn is behind in schedule,and ears are rather small....So if we don't see any good rainfall amounts before the first killing frost/freeze corn yield will be well below normal...Also what is rather interesting...Seeing this myself and also talking with areas framers across the entire FA...Hay crop this year was a good one...We got the much needed rainfall at the right time for the hay,unlike the corn....Also corn needs hot humid weather to really produce....Unlike hay and your yards cooler temps seems to work rather well for them...Some framers reported oats harvest was below yields...While others said they did ok with near norm yields...All dependant on where you live in our FA