Friday, September 25, 2009

Western/Northwest WI forecast

Let the roller coaster ride begin....cool,warm cold,warm,then cold next weekend....Also showers and thunderstorms this afternoon,tonight,showers Saturday,showers and storm Sunday,rain Monday....Then dry through Wednesday evening with more showers and storms Wednesday night through Thursday-Fridays time frame......

CURRENT CONDITIONS...

At this 4 AM HRS Temps through out the FA for the most part are in the lower to upper 50s...Hayward reports a cool 42° The warm spot is Superior they are reporting a temp of 61°...Skies for the most part are clear...Winds are calm..

SFC/UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS....
This morning we find a weak cold front over our far Northern WI FA Counties...A 1024 MB high pressure system is center over MI....Upper level low pressure over NE/KS...What does that all mean in the short term FCST ? lets see shall we...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.....

Upper level low is FCSTD to push clouds into the FA through out this morning,followed by a chance of showers and thunderstorms....Things to get a little tricky in the rainfall dept...Heaviest rain is FCSTD to be in Southern MN..This may hold down our rainfall amounts this far Northeast...The 3 day QPF off of most of the models showing my FA could see around a 0.25...Also my Northern and far Northeastern areas of the FA could pick up as much as 0.75 maybe an 1.00..Once again this is a 3 day total which would take us through Sunday....Today showers and thunderstorms will become more of a possibility...Highs upper 60s to lower 70s seem to be plausible....Tonight upper low and short wave will still be in the area so will keep showers and storms alive...INSTBY will be lost for will drop thunderstorms after 11 PM or 12 AM HR....Lows tonight will fall back into the lower 50s once again....Saturday upper level low/shortwave still close to the area to keep a small chance of showery type of rain ongoing...Thinking is as of right now to pull the showers from Saturday night(which I did)...So will run with MSTLY CLDY skies...Will keep lows in the lower 50s per model guidance and past few night's trend...See no reason to deviate from that.....

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY....

Be ready for a wind jammer of a system...A 996 MB low pressure system is FCSTD to move through Canada to just North of Lake Superior as it does this thing really deepens...pressure falls to around 982 MBS by 000 Monday...While the low is on the move it will drag a strong cold front into and through the FA....There will be some INSTBY ahead and along the cold front so will have to run with some thunder...Rainfall chances seem to be on the low end with this frontal boundary...Best forcing/lift will be North so better chance at showers and storms up there....Winds will be come a problem on Sunday...We could see winds gust up to 30 MPH after said cold front pushes through...The strong winds will hold through out Sunday night also.....Highs on your Sunday will be slightly warmer as WAA kicks in before the cold front pushes through...Highs lower 70s...Lows Sunday night with CAA working into the area fall into the lower 40s North to Middle 40s elsewheres.....Monday will keep a small chances of showers around with CAA ...Highs on Monday upper 50s to lower 60s...May stay in the 40s up in my Northern FA.....Monday night skies clear out and winds become light to calm...This is setting the stage for a possible frost through out my North Central to Northern areas...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Dry conditions are FCSTD with warming temps....Highs on Tuesday should be in the lower 60s,upper 50s North....Lows in the lower 40s seem the way to run...No threat of frost on Tuesday night.....Highs on Wed warm to upper 60s may see some 70s around......Next chance of rain comes in Wednesday night's time frame....More on that through out the weekend...