Monday, December 27, 2010

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Forecast problems…. Near term none just one word to sum this period up…Dull…. Medium term things get to be interesting…. Longer term forecasted looks to bring down an Arctic blast…Something we haven’t seen in awhile now…. Lots to hash out so let’s get right to it… Shall we?


Temps range from the upper teens to the middle 20s… Skies are mostly sunny.Winds South to Southwest ranging from 6 to 16 MPH with some gusts up to 22 MPH being reported…

Looking at the 12z NAM run we find a ridge of high pressure over the area… Winds have become South/Southwest…This will keep the FA high and dry right through WED… Temps are forecasted to warm near 30°… With lows in the teens….
Wednesday night things begin to change….Early Wednesday we see a 999 MB low pressure system coming on to shore over the Northern CA/Southern OR area This low is then forecasted to push into ID and is forecasted to deepen to around 981 MBS… By late Wednesday night the low is forecasted to be centered over Northeast WY…. This shall push a warm front towards the area, which should cause a mix precip type… Profiles/bufkit data shows a freezing rain… Don’t think that will happen to well after 2 AM…. The low is then forecasted to push into North Central MN and weaken to around 995 MBS… Meantime GFS forms another low over the TX panhandle.. Late Thursday night, this low is forecasted to push into Southwest WI, and deepen to around 999 MBS… The low is then forecasted to push into North Central WI then to North of Lake Superior and deepen to around 992 MBS.. This is per GFS…Which once again things have changed big time…..

Now let’s look at the ECWMF model..
This model is now beginning to show a track of the low pressure more to the East and South then it 00Z runs…. This model does not show a second low pressure system like GFS does… GEM-GLB keeps the system way to the west of the area.. UKEMT mode has a track more in line with ECWMF how this model does have a secondary low pressure that is forecasted to move Northeast… This model also has been trending more to the East and South with said system….
Some of the models show very warm air being pushed into the FA… I don’t believe 40s at all not with the deep snow pack across the FA and South and West of here along with Southeast of here… Winds will be blowing over this deep snow pack… So I think temps in the lower 30s look to more of a bet….
Will run with freezing rain South of a line from Balsam Lake over to Barron then just South of Bruce for Wednesday night through Friday…. North of that line Am going to run with snow, sleet, and some freezing rain…. Later Friday afternoon/early evening a cold front is forecasted to push into and through the area this will change everything over to all snow….. Best areas as of right now to see accumulating snows will be North of a Balsam lake to Barron to Bruce line…..Points South of said line won’t see as much in the way of snowfall amounts….Not even going to try to pin point amounts this far out…

To recap…

I don’t think it will be as warm as some models are showing…Deep snowpack across the upper Midwest

The track of the system is starting to trend more East and now slightly South once again..Which would keep the warmer temps well to our South/Southeast.

Thinking is as of right now this could be an ice storm for many places South of Balsam Lake to Barron to Bruce line…. North of this line its going to be a mess with mixed precip…

So with the 12z models runs in and looking at all the data from each one and the bufkit data this is how we see it for now… Confidence levels are still rather low on precip types/ However rather high on the temps…..