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2 years ago
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Damage pictures
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Severe thunderstorms pound Barron County again
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Severe thunderstorm rocks Barron County
What a fun little chase it was....Lots of hail,flooding and wind damage...Here are just afew pictures....
0241 PM HAIL 4 WSW RICE LAKE 45.47N 91.82W
07/20/2010 E0.75 INCH BARRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER
0245 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW RICE LAKE 45.50N 91.74W
07/20/2010 BARRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER
A SIX INCH DIAMETER TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON 18TH STREET
some of my reports
0241 PM HAIL 4 WSW RICE LAKE 45.47N 91.82W
07/20/2010 E0.75 INCH BARRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER
0245 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW RICE LAKE 45.50N 91.74W
07/20/2010 BARRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER
A SIX INCH DIAMETER TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON 18TH STREET
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Saturday, July 17, 2010
***SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY***
***SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK***
A severe weather outbreak is forecasted for later this afternoon into the overnight hrs....Thunderstorms are forecasted to form out over in MN and push their way East/Southeastwards.... Thunderstorms are forecasted to form into MCS/multi lines of storms....
Southerly flow today will bring in higher dewpoints upper 60s to lower 70s..May see some middle 70 dewpoints realized ,also temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s... There is some differences in the model this morning GFS seems to be a little fast in the movement and placement of the low pressure system... It takes the low through Central MN and into WI... Meanwhile NAM takes the low and moves into from MN down into IA... Either way severe thunderstorms are going to be likely throughout much of my FA later this afternoon/evening into the overnight hrs... Warm front will push North followed by a cold front.... Thinking is the best area for tornados shall be found in MN around the tripple point..Also this is where wind shear on the order of 30 KTS is forecasted to setup.. However tornados will also be possible in my FA along the warm frontal boundary...Most of today the cap shall win out, however later this afternoon into the evening hrs the cap is forecasted to weaken as thunderstorms blow in MN and work Eastwards...Thunderstorms should form into lines/MCS throughout the evening and into the overnight hrs once this happens the thunderstorm complex should begin to drop Southeastwards...With main threats then becoming damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall also going to be a concern....... Today will be hot and humid highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s seem to be plausible... So people that need to be outside today should drink plenty of water, and take frequent breaks... Best thing is to stay out of the sun as much as possible, or stay inside an AC building...
So to recap the severe weather threat...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible... Timing Am going to run between 5 PM through 1 AM or so... Threats will be a few tornados will be possible, very large hail along with straight line damaging winds... The threat this turns to a damaging wind threat along with hail... Also have to add very heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding problems, like what we saw back on the 14th....
People will want to keep a close hear on your weather radio or you favorite radio/TV station for possible watches and warnings this evening throughout the over night hrs.....
Good news is we shall get a break from this heat and humidity Sunday through Tuesday, before it all returns in the middle part of next week... Still the weather pattern looks to be active through next week....
A severe weather outbreak is forecasted for later this afternoon into the overnight hrs....Thunderstorms are forecasted to form out over in MN and push their way East/Southeastwards.... Thunderstorms are forecasted to form into MCS/multi lines of storms....
Southerly flow today will bring in higher dewpoints upper 60s to lower 70s..May see some middle 70 dewpoints realized ,also temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s... There is some differences in the model this morning GFS seems to be a little fast in the movement and placement of the low pressure system... It takes the low through Central MN and into WI... Meanwhile NAM takes the low and moves into from MN down into IA... Either way severe thunderstorms are going to be likely throughout much of my FA later this afternoon/evening into the overnight hrs... Warm front will push North followed by a cold front.... Thinking is the best area for tornados shall be found in MN around the tripple point..Also this is where wind shear on the order of 30 KTS is forecasted to setup.. However tornados will also be possible in my FA along the warm frontal boundary...Most of today the cap shall win out, however later this afternoon into the evening hrs the cap is forecasted to weaken as thunderstorms blow in MN and work Eastwards...Thunderstorms should form into lines/MCS throughout the evening and into the overnight hrs once this happens the thunderstorm complex should begin to drop Southeastwards...With main threats then becoming damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall also going to be a concern....... Today will be hot and humid highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s seem to be plausible... So people that need to be outside today should drink plenty of water, and take frequent breaks... Best thing is to stay out of the sun as much as possible, or stay inside an AC building...
So to recap the severe weather threat...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible... Timing Am going to run between 5 PM through 1 AM or so... Threats will be a few tornados will be possible, very large hail along with straight line damaging winds... The threat this turns to a damaging wind threat along with hail... Also have to add very heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding problems, like what we saw back on the 14th....
People will want to keep a close hear on your weather radio or you favorite radio/TV station for possible watches and warnings this evening throughout the over night hrs.....
Good news is we shall get a break from this heat and humidity Sunday through Tuesday, before it all returns in the middle part of next week... Still the weather pattern looks to be active through next week....
Friday, July 16, 2010
***SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FOR SATURDAY***
***SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK***
It appears we are looking face to face with yet another severe weather outbreak for Saturday late afternoon and into the overnight hrs throughout the FA... A warm front is forecasted to move through the area also a cold front will be advancing East/Southeastwards toward the FA this will bring in higher dewpoints .... temps in the middle to upper 80s may see a few 90s is some spots...The limiting factor to the severe weather threat is twofold 1st one being the strong cap that is forecasted to be in place and the 2nd one is timing of the system....Either way we shall have very good SFC heating throughout Saturday...With said fronts coming in later in the day the cap is forecasted to be weaken this will allow for severe thunderstorms to rear their ugly heads once again... This severe weather should be in two waves...One along the warm front then the other one along the cold front... This could be another dangerous situation more so as this could last into the overnight hrs..
Will have a better handle on this either later this evening or tomorrow morning.
It appears we are looking face to face with yet another severe weather outbreak for Saturday late afternoon and into the overnight hrs throughout the FA... A warm front is forecasted to move through the area also a cold front will be advancing East/Southeastwards toward the FA this will bring in higher dewpoints .... temps in the middle to upper 80s may see a few 90s is some spots...The limiting factor to the severe weather threat is twofold 1st one being the strong cap that is forecasted to be in place and the 2nd one is timing of the system....Either way we shall have very good SFC heating throughout Saturday...With said fronts coming in later in the day the cap is forecasted to be weaken this will allow for severe thunderstorms to rear their ugly heads once again... This severe weather should be in two waves...One along the warm front then the other one along the cold front... This could be another dangerous situation more so as this could last into the overnight hrs..
Will have a better handle on this either later this evening or tomorrow morning.
Storm damage pictures
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Severe thunderstorms rocked the area
***SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK***
*** SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ***
This discussion will only focus of the severe weather out break which is well under way this morning.....
Radar this morning showing a large area of showers and thunderstorms which some of these storms are severe over in MN North if the Twin Cities.... This area is moving off to the East/Northeast, This area should effect my Northern FA area... Another area of showers and thunderstorms are forming in Southwest MN, This area is moving towards the East/Northeast.. We could see some severe thunderstorms around part of my Central and Northern parts of the FA throughout the morning hr....This should weaken and move out setting the stage for more severe thunderstorms this afternoon last right through the evening hrs...
This is a dangerous situation we have forming this afternoon through out the evening... Very large hail and damaging straight line winds, along with tornadoes... Some tornadoes could be long lived and rather strong... Main tornado threat will come with the early stages of storm's live... Won't take to long for the storms to form into lines...SPC is calling for a possible Derecho event later today and evening, I concur... They also have most of my FA under a MDT risk of severe weather.....
People throughout the FA should listen to weather radio, or you local news media, and radio stations for the latest on this severe weather outbreak....
It will be a hot day throughout the FA as well....The NWS has my Central and Southern areas under a heat advisory......
This discussion will only focus of the severe weather out break which is well under way this morning.....
Radar this morning showing a large area of showers and thunderstorms which some of these storms are severe over in MN North if the Twin Cities.... This area is moving off to the East/Northeast, This area should effect my Northern FA area... Another area of showers and thunderstorms are forming in Southwest MN, This area is moving towards the East/Northeast.. We could see some severe thunderstorms around part of my Central and Northern parts of the FA throughout the morning hr....This should weaken and move out setting the stage for more severe thunderstorms this afternoon last right through the evening hrs...
This is a dangerous situation we have forming this afternoon through out the evening... Very large hail and damaging straight line winds, along with tornadoes... Some tornadoes could be long lived and rather strong... Main tornado threat will come with the early stages of storm's live... Won't take to long for the storms to form into lines...SPC is calling for a possible Derecho event later today and evening, I concur... They also have most of my FA under a MDT risk of severe weather.....
People throughout the FA should listen to weather radio, or you local news media, and radio stations for the latest on this severe weather outbreak....
It will be a hot day throughout the FA as well....The NWS has my Central and Southern areas under a heat advisory......
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Pictures from 07/11/10 storms
HWD for Western/Northwestern WI
*** SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK FOR WEDNESDAY ***
Cold front is forecasted to move towards the FA on Wednesday this will set the stage for thunderstorms... Some of these thunderstorms should become severe during the day and throughout the evening...
Main threats from severe thunderstorms shall be large hail, damaging winds along with tornadoes... People throughout Western/Northwest WI will want to stay on top of this possible severe weather outbreak...Listen to a weather radio or your local radio station or your local tv stations..... This could be a dangerous situation...
Cold front is forecasted to move towards the FA on Wednesday this will set the stage for thunderstorms... Some of these thunderstorms should become severe during the day and throughout the evening...
Main threats from severe thunderstorms shall be large hail, damaging winds along with tornadoes... People throughout Western/Northwest WI will want to stay on top of this possible severe weather outbreak...Listen to a weather radio or your local radio station or your local tv stations..... This could be a dangerous situation...
Forecast discussion for Western/Northwest WI
Main focus of this discussion will be on the severe weather outbreak that is looking us right in the face for Wednesday...
*** CURRENT CONDITIONS ***
Temps this morning are in the lower 60s with some upper 50s to found in my Northern FA... dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s... Winds from the East/Southeast ranging from calm to around 6 MPH...Skies for the most part are mostly sunny....
*** FORECAST DISCUSSION ***
SFC analysis shows a 1010 MB high pressure over Lake Superior this morning... Wind have backed to the East/Southeast through out the night between said high and a 993 MB low pressure system over Southeastern MT/Northeast WY.. The high pressure system is forecasted to move of into the OH valley, meanwhile the low pressure system will be working towards Northeast SD.... This will start the WAA into the area today along with moisture flowing back Northwards.... Tonight models are showing an MCS forming over ND into SD, along with parts of Western MN... There is no second guessing on the cloud cover that will blow off from the complex to make into the FA overnight... Don't think we will have to worry about any showers or storms during the overnight hrs, that should remain out over Western MN into maybe Central MN.... Wednesday... LLJ increases from the South/Southeast to 30to 40 KNTS.. Lapse rates do increase to around 7 C/KM.... Cape is forecasted to range from 2500 J/KG to 3000 J/KG... Looking at the 700 MB temps we do find temps increasing to around -10c.. So some cap does appear which will help hold the wannabe severe thunderstorms at bay.... Dewpoints soar into the upper 60 to lower to middle 70s... So deep level moisture shall be in place..... We also have very good wind shear setting up over the area... Cold front is forecasted to move towards the area showers and thunderstorms are forecasted to be ongoing over in MN.. This may die off before reforming as the frontal boundary pushes East... Thunderstorms should start to form over the FA after 1 PM or so... Some of these thunderstorms should have no problem becoming severe as we work through the afternoon and into the late evening hrs... See HWD above for info on this.... Temps today shall be right around 80s into the middle 80s for Wednesday.. Rest of the work week looks to be on the warm side with temps in the middle 80s to upper 80s... May be flirting with the 90 degree mark Friday and Saturday... Saturday night another system could be another round of showers and thunderstorms to the FA...This is forecasted to last into Sunday...
*** CURRENT CONDITIONS ***
Temps this morning are in the lower 60s with some upper 50s to found in my Northern FA... dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s... Winds from the East/Southeast ranging from calm to around 6 MPH...Skies for the most part are mostly sunny....
*** FORECAST DISCUSSION ***
SFC analysis shows a 1010 MB high pressure over Lake Superior this morning... Wind have backed to the East/Southeast through out the night between said high and a 993 MB low pressure system over Southeastern MT/Northeast WY.. The high pressure system is forecasted to move of into the OH valley, meanwhile the low pressure system will be working towards Northeast SD.... This will start the WAA into the area today along with moisture flowing back Northwards.... Tonight models are showing an MCS forming over ND into SD, along with parts of Western MN... There is no second guessing on the cloud cover that will blow off from the complex to make into the FA overnight... Don't think we will have to worry about any showers or storms during the overnight hrs, that should remain out over Western MN into maybe Central MN.... Wednesday... LLJ increases from the South/Southeast to 30to 40 KNTS.. Lapse rates do increase to around 7 C/KM.... Cape is forecasted to range from 2500 J/KG to 3000 J/KG... Looking at the 700 MB temps we do find temps increasing to around -10c.. So some cap does appear which will help hold the wannabe severe thunderstorms at bay.... Dewpoints soar into the upper 60 to lower to middle 70s... So deep level moisture shall be in place..... We also have very good wind shear setting up over the area... Cold front is forecasted to move towards the area showers and thunderstorms are forecasted to be ongoing over in MN.. This may die off before reforming as the frontal boundary pushes East... Thunderstorms should start to form over the FA after 1 PM or so... Some of these thunderstorms should have no problem becoming severe as we work through the afternoon and into the late evening hrs... See HWD above for info on this.... Temps today shall be right around 80s into the middle 80s for Wednesday.. Rest of the work week looks to be on the warm side with temps in the middle 80s to upper 80s... May be flirting with the 90 degree mark Friday and Saturday... Saturday night another system could be another round of showers and thunderstorms to the FA...This is forecasted to last into Sunday...
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Forecast discussion for Western/Northwestern WI
This forecast discussion will revolve the very slight change of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening... Then another more powerful cold front to be a better chance at a widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak to the FA for Wednesday and Wednesday night....
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
Temps this morning are in the upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints lower 60s...Winds ranging from 5 to 8 MPH from the South/Southwest....Skies as you have noticed are cloudy... Checking the radar data, we find an areas of showers with a few ISO thunderstorms from Washburn, Sawyer Counties reaching South/Southwest through Barron, Rusk, Dunn, Chippewa, Eau Clarie ,Eastern Pierce, and Pepin Counties.... This area of rain is drifting towards the East/Northeast.... We also find another area of showers up in Douglas County this area is also moving East/Northeast....
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
SFC analysis.... SFC chart show a 1003 low pressure over Northeast MN far Northwest WI... Meantime a cold front reaches from Northern Central MN back down into Northeast SD then cuts through the state of SD to Southwest SD...Cold front is forecasted to drift to move into far Northwest WI/Eastern MN later this afternoon... A shortwave over far Northeast NE is forecasted move East into Southern WI along with the cold front by later this evening/overnight hrs....Lifted Index is forecasted to around -2c to -4c thinking this may be over done a tad....Since we really don't have good SFC heating taking shape...Cape is forecasted to be around 1500 J/KG to 2500 J/KG this afternoon out and along the foresaid cold front... Dewpoints should remain the lower to middle 60s today....Wind shear really not that impressive... Nevertheless there shall be plenty of lift along the frontal boundary... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to fire up and move towards the East/Southeast.... As far as severe weather chances go...Limiting factors 1 Little in the way of SFC heating... If we can break out into a few hrs of sunshine that would raise the instabilities...2 wind shear is rather on the low side for widespread severe thunderstorms.. 3 If a complex of thunderstorms form South of the area which models are showing this will rob some of the moisture flowing into the FA to some degree...... With that said severe thunderstorms chances ATTM are rather low.... Not saying we won't see a few severe storms...
Monday through Tuesday high pressure builds into the area this will allow for cooler temps and dewpoints shall be lower, however with evaporation from the corn/tress dewpoints upper 50s lower 60s seem the way to run...
Wednesday is the day all of the Northern forecasters and stormchasers are watching.... Strong cold front is forecasted to move into the area during primetime heating moisture will stream back into the FA rather fast...Upper level support is setting up over MN/WI.... One problem I see right now... If thunderstorm complexes form Tuesday night and are slow to clear... This would limit SFC heating and instabilities hence lowering the severe weather threat.... This is still way out there in time so I won't lose any sleep over this the next couple of night....
Main threat from today's severe thunderstorms if the form would be large hail and areas of damaging winds... Tornado threat is low, however severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes....
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
Temps this morning are in the upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints lower 60s...Winds ranging from 5 to 8 MPH from the South/Southwest....Skies as you have noticed are cloudy... Checking the radar data, we find an areas of showers with a few ISO thunderstorms from Washburn, Sawyer Counties reaching South/Southwest through Barron, Rusk, Dunn, Chippewa, Eau Clarie ,Eastern Pierce, and Pepin Counties.... This area of rain is drifting towards the East/Northeast.... We also find another area of showers up in Douglas County this area is also moving East/Northeast....
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
SFC analysis.... SFC chart show a 1003 low pressure over Northeast MN far Northwest WI... Meantime a cold front reaches from Northern Central MN back down into Northeast SD then cuts through the state of SD to Southwest SD...Cold front is forecasted to drift to move into far Northwest WI/Eastern MN later this afternoon... A shortwave over far Northeast NE is forecasted move East into Southern WI along with the cold front by later this evening/overnight hrs....Lifted Index is forecasted to around -2c to -4c thinking this may be over done a tad....Since we really don't have good SFC heating taking shape...Cape is forecasted to be around 1500 J/KG to 2500 J/KG this afternoon out and along the foresaid cold front... Dewpoints should remain the lower to middle 60s today....Wind shear really not that impressive... Nevertheless there shall be plenty of lift along the frontal boundary... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to fire up and move towards the East/Southeast.... As far as severe weather chances go...Limiting factors 1 Little in the way of SFC heating... If we can break out into a few hrs of sunshine that would raise the instabilities...2 wind shear is rather on the low side for widespread severe thunderstorms.. 3 If a complex of thunderstorms form South of the area which models are showing this will rob some of the moisture flowing into the FA to some degree...... With that said severe thunderstorms chances ATTM are rather low.... Not saying we won't see a few severe storms...
Monday through Tuesday high pressure builds into the area this will allow for cooler temps and dewpoints shall be lower, however with evaporation from the corn/tress dewpoints upper 50s lower 60s seem the way to run...
Wednesday is the day all of the Northern forecasters and stormchasers are watching.... Strong cold front is forecasted to move into the area during primetime heating moisture will stream back into the FA rather fast...Upper level support is setting up over MN/WI.... One problem I see right now... If thunderstorm complexes form Tuesday night and are slow to clear... This would limit SFC heating and instabilities hence lowering the severe weather threat.... This is still way out there in time so I won't lose any sleep over this the next couple of night....
Main threat from today's severe thunderstorms if the form would be large hail and areas of damaging winds... Tornado threat is low, however severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes....
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Forecast discussion for Western/Northwestern WI
Cookies...Check....Pop.... Check...Already to do this forecast now... Check...
This forecast discussion will revolve around the severe weather threat for tonight and into tomorrow...
***CURRENT CONDITION***
Temps have soared back into the middle 80s throughout all of the FA...Dewpoints have also climbed into the lower to middle 60s... meanwhile winds are out of the South/Southwest form 8 to 13 MPH with gusts as high as 22 MPH....Skies are partly cloudy to mostly sunny....Radar is showing a few showers and thunderstorms in Western St.Croix County, with another area of showers about to inter Western Polk County.. As of 3:49 PM....
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
SFC analysis off the RUC shows a 1015 MB high pressure just East of MI.. A cold front in far Northwestern MN droping down through ND and SD....Winds have backed to the South/Southwest last night between these two features Bringing in warmer temps along with higher dewpoints... Cape values are running between 1500 J/KG to around 2000 J/KG... While LIS are running from 0c to -2c across the FA.... NAM shows darn near the same....So will use NAM model for tonight and tomorrow, however will blend in GFS in and there...
Cold front is forecasted to slowly move towards the FA tonight.... Showers and thunderstorms will become more pronounced as we head into the evening and overnight hrs. Some of these thunderstorms could become quite grumpy to severe, as the LLJ is forecasted to increase.. 0-30 KM Cape increases to around 2500 J/KG....Still I'm overly thrilled about severe weather chances tonight... Meos analysis from the SPC confirms this rather well... Still can't rule out a severe storm around the area, as we all noted this up in Bayfield County,as of 4:22 PM...Look for this trend to keep alive as we head into the evening...Won't be widespread thunderstorms by all means.. Tomorrow's severe weather threat will depend on two factors...1 How fast can the overnight storms clear the area... 2... Where the cold front sets up... As of right Am banking on the cold front to be into my Central Counties on my Western FA... So points East from Polk, St.Croix Counties would have a better chance for severe thunderstorms...Still I'm not overly thrilled about this either, as cloud cover and ongoing showers/storms seem plausible... Seems like the best area for severe thunderstorms will be well South like in IA,Parts of NE down into MO.... Will have see how the overnight storms play out and where the cold front really does setup....
Looking into Wednesday.... This could be a big severe weather outbreak for the FA... Still to far out to get overly excited about, however it sure does catch my eyes....
This forecast discussion will revolve around the severe weather threat for tonight and into tomorrow...
***CURRENT CONDITION***
Temps have soared back into the middle 80s throughout all of the FA...Dewpoints have also climbed into the lower to middle 60s... meanwhile winds are out of the South/Southwest form 8 to 13 MPH with gusts as high as 22 MPH....Skies are partly cloudy to mostly sunny....Radar is showing a few showers and thunderstorms in Western St.Croix County, with another area of showers about to inter Western Polk County.. As of 3:49 PM....
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
SFC analysis off the RUC shows a 1015 MB high pressure just East of MI.. A cold front in far Northwestern MN droping down through ND and SD....Winds have backed to the South/Southwest last night between these two features Bringing in warmer temps along with higher dewpoints... Cape values are running between 1500 J/KG to around 2000 J/KG... While LIS are running from 0c to -2c across the FA.... NAM shows darn near the same....So will use NAM model for tonight and tomorrow, however will blend in GFS in and there...
Cold front is forecasted to slowly move towards the FA tonight.... Showers and thunderstorms will become more pronounced as we head into the evening and overnight hrs. Some of these thunderstorms could become quite grumpy to severe, as the LLJ is forecasted to increase.. 0-30 KM Cape increases to around 2500 J/KG....Still I'm overly thrilled about severe weather chances tonight... Meos analysis from the SPC confirms this rather well... Still can't rule out a severe storm around the area, as we all noted this up in Bayfield County,as of 4:22 PM...Look for this trend to keep alive as we head into the evening...Won't be widespread thunderstorms by all means.. Tomorrow's severe weather threat will depend on two factors...1 How fast can the overnight storms clear the area... 2... Where the cold front sets up... As of right Am banking on the cold front to be into my Central Counties on my Western FA... So points East from Polk, St.Croix Counties would have a better chance for severe thunderstorms...Still I'm not overly thrilled about this either, as cloud cover and ongoing showers/storms seem plausible... Seems like the best area for severe thunderstorms will be well South like in IA,Parts of NE down into MO.... Will have see how the overnight storms play out and where the cold front really does setup....
Looking into Wednesday.... This could be a big severe weather outbreak for the FA... Still to far out to get overly excited about, however it sure does catch my eyes....
No time for a forecast this morning
Looking at the radar this morning I will not have time for a forecast as we got an area of showers and thunderstorms across Polk and into Dunn Counties, As well as Burnett County....Over the last few radar scans the cells over Southeast Polk County now getting ready to inter Southwest Barron have become stronger, Along with the cell in Central Dunn County...Once this pushes of to the East then I should have a forecast out...Right now I'm thinking about to head out to chase or at least look at these cells...
Friday, July 9, 2010
Severe thunderstorms for Sunday,yes,no,or maybe?
Main problems that will be dealt in this forecast discussion is the severe weather threat, for Sunday, along with temps this weekend... More humid air is poised to move back into the FA... Lots to hash out so lets dive into it...
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
SFC OBS showing temps in the lower 60s to middle 60s... Dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s ... Skies are mostly sunny... Winds are calm throughout the FA...
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Today the FA still locked under a 1020 MB high pressure which is centered over NE.. This is forecasted to move towards the East throughout the weekend, should be centered over Eastern OH/Western PA by late Saturday night/early Sunday morning.... This should allow our pleasant summer time weather pattern to continue through today and a good deal of Saturday...With the WAA kicking in for Saturday and moisture returning to the area have decided to add a small chance of showers and thunderstorms into Saturday's afternoon time frame...Saturday night there is a better chance at showers and thunderstorms as a shortwave rides into the area... A cold front is forecasted to drop South during the day on Sunday... This is were we run into a handful of troubles concerning the severe weather threat..... 1st of the bat is.. Cloud cover/any left over showers/storms in the morning hrs on Sunday... How fast will this clear the area, if it does.... 2nd out of the gates.. will be deep level moisture along with instabilities... Will any MCS form Saturday night to our South in IA/MO and rob said dynamics from the area... 3rd on the plate... Is how fast to move this system as some of the models are trying to push the cold front through the FA early Sunday night....
Ok so Number 1... RH fields off the 700-850 MB charts does show for a mostly cloudy skies for Sunday so if this does play out, and we don't get a few hrs of sunshine forget about the severe weather threat.....If we can breaks in the cloud cover to allow for a few hrs of SFC heating then we can deal with this problem which is number 2 on our charts.... Will there be enough deep level moisture and instabilities.. GFS keeps LIS right around 0c GFS shows the dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s throughout much of my FA, however the deeper moisture remains South of the area... Which really doesn’t make sense as GFS is painting a thunderstorm complex to form over Northern/Central MN Sunday evening, and then moves into Central and Northern parts of the FA.. That is the main action area.... Meanwhile looking at NAM model... Nam likes the idea of dewpoints in the middle 60s, and it's also keeping the deeper moisture South of the FA... Nam does paint a thunderstorm complex this matches up with it's moisture area unlike the GFS... Thunderstorm complex forms over Southern MN Sunday evening and moves through my Southern FA, may clip some of my Central areas... Nam is showing LIS around 0c to -2c.... Number 3 which was hit upon above some...
Thinking is showers and thunderstorms should be clearing the area around the midnight hr....... Ok now here is the thinking about severe weather threat for my FA..... Cold front moving into the area will cause showers and thunderstorms to form/reform during the afternoon... Without any substantial SFC heating storms should remain below the severe weather threat thresholds... We could see a few strong storms which may produce some gusty winds and small hail... Main severe weather threat will be down in NE/IA/KS... This will help insure the FA that severe thunderstorms stay at bay.... This is subject to change... I will update this tomorrow if needed..
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
SFC OBS showing temps in the lower 60s to middle 60s... Dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s ... Skies are mostly sunny... Winds are calm throughout the FA...
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Today the FA still locked under a 1020 MB high pressure which is centered over NE.. This is forecasted to move towards the East throughout the weekend, should be centered over Eastern OH/Western PA by late Saturday night/early Sunday morning.... This should allow our pleasant summer time weather pattern to continue through today and a good deal of Saturday...With the WAA kicking in for Saturday and moisture returning to the area have decided to add a small chance of showers and thunderstorms into Saturday's afternoon time frame...Saturday night there is a better chance at showers and thunderstorms as a shortwave rides into the area... A cold front is forecasted to drop South during the day on Sunday... This is were we run into a handful of troubles concerning the severe weather threat..... 1st of the bat is.. Cloud cover/any left over showers/storms in the morning hrs on Sunday... How fast will this clear the area, if it does.... 2nd out of the gates.. will be deep level moisture along with instabilities... Will any MCS form Saturday night to our South in IA/MO and rob said dynamics from the area... 3rd on the plate... Is how fast to move this system as some of the models are trying to push the cold front through the FA early Sunday night....
Ok so Number 1... RH fields off the 700-850 MB charts does show for a mostly cloudy skies for Sunday so if this does play out, and we don't get a few hrs of sunshine forget about the severe weather threat.....If we can breaks in the cloud cover to allow for a few hrs of SFC heating then we can deal with this problem which is number 2 on our charts.... Will there be enough deep level moisture and instabilities.. GFS keeps LIS right around 0c GFS shows the dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s throughout much of my FA, however the deeper moisture remains South of the area... Which really doesn’t make sense as GFS is painting a thunderstorm complex to form over Northern/Central MN Sunday evening, and then moves into Central and Northern parts of the FA.. That is the main action area.... Meanwhile looking at NAM model... Nam likes the idea of dewpoints in the middle 60s, and it's also keeping the deeper moisture South of the FA... Nam does paint a thunderstorm complex this matches up with it's moisture area unlike the GFS... Thunderstorm complex forms over Southern MN Sunday evening and moves through my Southern FA, may clip some of my Central areas... Nam is showing LIS around 0c to -2c.... Number 3 which was hit upon above some...
Thinking is showers and thunderstorms should be clearing the area around the midnight hr....... Ok now here is the thinking about severe weather threat for my FA..... Cold front moving into the area will cause showers and thunderstorms to form/reform during the afternoon... Without any substantial SFC heating storms should remain below the severe weather threat thresholds... We could see a few strong storms which may produce some gusty winds and small hail... Main severe weather threat will be down in NE/IA/KS... This will help insure the FA that severe thunderstorms stay at bay.... This is subject to change... I will update this tomorrow if needed..
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI
Very nice weather on tap today, and Friday with less humidity.. Saturday still looks to be nice, however dewpoints will be climbing back up.... Sunday the chances of showers and thunderstorms, Along with a growing threat of severe thunderstorms.....
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
SFC OBS showing sunny skies across the FA, with temps in the lower 70s throughout the FA... Dewpoints are still in the lower 60s.. Winds generally out of the West/Northwest from 3 to 8 MPH... All in all a great morning...
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
High pressure has built into the area.. This will allow for a cooler day along with Friday... Dewpoints should keep dropping off so it won't feel as muggy like it had been over the last week.. Temps right around 80 both days seem the way to run... Saturday we see the high pressure moving off to our Southeast, this will allow for WAA to kick in.. Moisture will start to return to the FA.... I have choice to add a small chance of showers and thunderstorms in for Saturday night.. As most of the models do paint some precip over the area... Saturday in it's self shall remain dry with temps working into the 80s....Sunday the forecast gets to be tricky... To may things still up in the air on how things are going to play out... Severe thunderstorms do look possible as of right now... As far as I'm concerned it's way to early to talk about the parameters that appear to be setting up... Will go into details in tomorrow's forecast... 1.. thing that could squash this possible severe weather threat will be the cloud cover, I feel GFS is not taken this into consideration as it severe weather parameters are to high this far out... However if clouds can clear for a few hrs, and GFS severe weather threat would be plausible... Will hold off until short term models get a handle on this possible severe weather event....
***TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY***
Mostly sunny skies with temps around 80 into the 80s Saturday....Winds Northwest today from 5 to 10 MPH becoming Southwest Friday around 10 MPH... Lows through this time frame upper 50s....
***SATURDAY NIGHT***
Mostly cloudy with a small chance at showers and thunderstorms... Lows in the lower 60s...
***SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT***
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a better chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon into the evening hrs... Highs middle 80s...Sunday night still a chance of showers and thunderstorms lows in the lower 60s.
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
SFC OBS showing sunny skies across the FA, with temps in the lower 70s throughout the FA... Dewpoints are still in the lower 60s.. Winds generally out of the West/Northwest from 3 to 8 MPH... All in all a great morning...
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
High pressure has built into the area.. This will allow for a cooler day along with Friday... Dewpoints should keep dropping off so it won't feel as muggy like it had been over the last week.. Temps right around 80 both days seem the way to run... Saturday we see the high pressure moving off to our Southeast, this will allow for WAA to kick in.. Moisture will start to return to the FA.... I have choice to add a small chance of showers and thunderstorms in for Saturday night.. As most of the models do paint some precip over the area... Saturday in it's self shall remain dry with temps working into the 80s....Sunday the forecast gets to be tricky... To may things still up in the air on how things are going to play out... Severe thunderstorms do look possible as of right now... As far as I'm concerned it's way to early to talk about the parameters that appear to be setting up... Will go into details in tomorrow's forecast... 1.. thing that could squash this possible severe weather threat will be the cloud cover, I feel GFS is not taken this into consideration as it severe weather parameters are to high this far out... However if clouds can clear for a few hrs, and GFS severe weather threat would be plausible... Will hold off until short term models get a handle on this possible severe weather event....
***TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY***
Mostly sunny skies with temps around 80 into the 80s Saturday....Winds Northwest today from 5 to 10 MPH becoming Southwest Friday around 10 MPH... Lows through this time frame upper 50s....
***SATURDAY NIGHT***
Mostly cloudy with a small chance at showers and thunderstorms... Lows in the lower 60s...
***SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT***
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a better chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon into the evening hrs... Highs middle 80s...Sunday night still a chance of showers and thunderstorms lows in the lower 60s.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Just a few pictures
Less humid conditions on the way!
One more day of hot sticky, humid, muggy air to deal with before a much needed break tomorrow through Friday... Then more humid conditions return the the FA for this weekend...
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 9 AM SFC OBS showing temps in the middle 70s, cooler up around Lake Superior... Dewpoints are in the lower to middle 60s under sunny to mostly sunny skies.. Winds are calm to around 5 MPH...
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
A week area of low pressure is forecasted to take shape over IA this morning.. 1014 or so MBS... This low is then forecasted to lift into the FA later this afternoon/into the over night hrs.. Cold front out over MN is also forecasted to move Eastwards as we head through the day into the evening.... Moisture is streaming into the area... Though dewpoints are some what lower this morning... Nevertheless it will remain a muggy day... Cape does increase to around 1500 J/KG to 2000 J/KG....LIS range from -2c to almost -4c later this afternoon and through out the evening... Dewpoints forecasted to in the upper 60s to lower 70s once again.... Now time to talk about severe thunderstorms chances... As of right now this looks to be very low if not null.... Despite we have some of the dynamics in place, however looking at the Skews we find little support in the middle to upper levels... Not much shear as of right now...This still could change as we head through this afternoon... Nevertheless showers and thunderstorms are forecasted to form out over Central/Eastern MN and then push Eastwards... Would appear as of right now a line of thunderstorms will take shape...This may lead to marginal wind threat.... So we can't rule out gusty/damaging wind threat... May also see some hail from the stronger cells/updrafts...Overall though the severe weather threat is very low.... If this does change this will be updated.... Cold front clears the area latter tonight...Dewpoints will take a hit as drier air pushes in the area...Will keep temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s through the rest of the week into the weekend... Dewpoints slowly make their climb back into the 60s by Sunday....
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 9 AM SFC OBS showing temps in the middle 70s, cooler up around Lake Superior... Dewpoints are in the lower to middle 60s under sunny to mostly sunny skies.. Winds are calm to around 5 MPH...
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
A week area of low pressure is forecasted to take shape over IA this morning.. 1014 or so MBS... This low is then forecasted to lift into the FA later this afternoon/into the over night hrs.. Cold front out over MN is also forecasted to move Eastwards as we head through the day into the evening.... Moisture is streaming into the area... Though dewpoints are some what lower this morning... Nevertheless it will remain a muggy day... Cape does increase to around 1500 J/KG to 2000 J/KG....LIS range from -2c to almost -4c later this afternoon and through out the evening... Dewpoints forecasted to in the upper 60s to lower 70s once again.... Now time to talk about severe thunderstorms chances... As of right now this looks to be very low if not null.... Despite we have some of the dynamics in place, however looking at the Skews we find little support in the middle to upper levels... Not much shear as of right now...This still could change as we head through this afternoon... Nevertheless showers and thunderstorms are forecasted to form out over Central/Eastern MN and then push Eastwards... Would appear as of right now a line of thunderstorms will take shape...This may lead to marginal wind threat.... So we can't rule out gusty/damaging wind threat... May also see some hail from the stronger cells/updrafts...Overall though the severe weather threat is very low.... If this does change this will be updated.... Cold front clears the area latter tonight...Dewpoints will take a hit as drier air pushes in the area...Will keep temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s through the rest of the week into the weekend... Dewpoints slowly make their climb back into the 60s by Sunday....
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Fast forecast discusion...
Are you getting sick of the warm to hot and muggy conditions ? don't worry some changes are a coming.... This is going to be short and to the point...
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Frontal boundary still hanging close by the area may spark off some hit and miss showers and thunderstorms today into this evening... Not expecting any thunderstorms to become severe.. It will be another warm humid day as temps reach for middle 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.... Tonight will remain warm and humid with lows in the middle 60s.... Tomorrow we shall see a stronger clod front move into the area late in the day early evening hrs... This will bring a another round of showers and thunderstorms to the FA... ATTM the threat of severe thunderstorms looks to null as instabilities are rather low.. If we can break out into a few hrs of sunshine then we could be dealing with a chance at severe thunderstorms...We will have to watch this to see what will for sure play out....... Wednesday night we should see a drop in the dewpoints as winds switch to the North/Northwest... Temps are forecasted to cool off to the upper 70s to lower 80s for the remainder of the work week... More humid are on tap for the weekend with a shot of showers and thunderstorms for Sunday... ATTM it's to early to tell if we will dealing with severe thunderstorms or not....
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Frontal boundary still hanging close by the area may spark off some hit and miss showers and thunderstorms today into this evening... Not expecting any thunderstorms to become severe.. It will be another warm humid day as temps reach for middle 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.... Tonight will remain warm and humid with lows in the middle 60s.... Tomorrow we shall see a stronger clod front move into the area late in the day early evening hrs... This will bring a another round of showers and thunderstorms to the FA... ATTM the threat of severe thunderstorms looks to null as instabilities are rather low.. If we can break out into a few hrs of sunshine then we could be dealing with a chance at severe thunderstorms...We will have to watch this to see what will for sure play out....... Wednesday night we should see a drop in the dewpoints as winds switch to the North/Northwest... Temps are forecasted to cool off to the upper 70s to lower 80s for the remainder of the work week... More humid are on tap for the weekend with a shot of showers and thunderstorms for Sunday... ATTM it's to early to tell if we will dealing with severe thunderstorms or not....
Monday, July 5, 2010
Fireworks pictures.
Sunday, July 4, 2010
Updated forecast for the 10 PM HR
Looks like the fireworks shows will be dry...Most of the showers/storms have pushed to the East/Southeast of the area....There still could be a hit and miss shower/storm through the 9 PM hr....
The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI
Forecast problems for today is how fast to clear the cold front through the area and how soon to clear the showers and thunderstorms this evening....
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
Temps this morning are in the middle 70s for the must part...Dewpoints are very sticky this morning lower 70s... Skies are cloudy... Radar is showing a line of showers with a few thunderstorms throughout the FA....
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
This morning showers and thunderstorms should clear the area by afternoon.. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to reform later this afternoon.. No severe thunderstorms are forecast ATTM... Though heavy rainfall is a possibility could see 1/2 inch to around an inch in many spots... It won't be hot today like it was yesterday with the cloud cover in place... Temps still should reach into the 80s.. If we can get some breaks in the cloud cover temps could reach for the middle to upper 80s, highly unlikely that shall happen... Wind shall be lighter today from the South then switching to the Southwest.... This evening showers and thunderstorms should clear out of my Western parts of the FA, while my Central and Eastern areas may still be dealing with showers and storms... There is still hope that showers and storms could clear the whole FA by 10 PM... If indeed that happens we shall all enjoy the fireworks displays forthcoming this evening... Looks like the front will hang up just our South still close enough to keep a chance of showers and thunderstorm going for Monday and Monday night... Models showing another cold front working into the area for Tuesday night/Wednesday's time frame...So have elected to keep showers and thunderstorms going through this entire forecast cycle... Longer term looks like we could be setting our self's up for a very nice period from Thursday into the upcoming weekend... Temps throughout the upcoming work week into the first part of next weekend should run either side of 80.....
***TODAY***
Showers and thunderstorms likely this morning, then again later this afternoon.. Heavy rain is possible... Highs today lower to middle 80s and it will remain muggy... Winds South/Southwest from 10 to 15 MPH...
***FIREWORKS DISPLAY (10 PM)***
For now I have decided to end the showers and thunderstorms in my Western areas... I'm still going to run with a small chance in my Central and Eastern areas...This could change, will updated if needed... Temps at the 10 PM should range from the middle 60s up North to lower to middle 70s Central and Southern areas... Winds Southwest/West around 5 to 10 MPH....
***MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY***
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at any given time.. Highs either side of 80... Lows in the Middle 60s cooling to the upper 50s by Wednesday night....
***NOTE***
The forecast for the fireworks display 10 PM...May be changing throughout the day.... Stay tune for updates....
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
Temps this morning are in the middle 70s for the must part...Dewpoints are very sticky this morning lower 70s... Skies are cloudy... Radar is showing a line of showers with a few thunderstorms throughout the FA....
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
This morning showers and thunderstorms should clear the area by afternoon.. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to reform later this afternoon.. No severe thunderstorms are forecast ATTM... Though heavy rainfall is a possibility could see 1/2 inch to around an inch in many spots... It won't be hot today like it was yesterday with the cloud cover in place... Temps still should reach into the 80s.. If we can get some breaks in the cloud cover temps could reach for the middle to upper 80s, highly unlikely that shall happen... Wind shall be lighter today from the South then switching to the Southwest.... This evening showers and thunderstorms should clear out of my Western parts of the FA, while my Central and Eastern areas may still be dealing with showers and storms... There is still hope that showers and storms could clear the whole FA by 10 PM... If indeed that happens we shall all enjoy the fireworks displays forthcoming this evening... Looks like the front will hang up just our South still close enough to keep a chance of showers and thunderstorm going for Monday and Monday night... Models showing another cold front working into the area for Tuesday night/Wednesday's time frame...So have elected to keep showers and thunderstorms going through this entire forecast cycle... Longer term looks like we could be setting our self's up for a very nice period from Thursday into the upcoming weekend... Temps throughout the upcoming work week into the first part of next weekend should run either side of 80.....
***TODAY***
Showers and thunderstorms likely this morning, then again later this afternoon.. Heavy rain is possible... Highs today lower to middle 80s and it will remain muggy... Winds South/Southwest from 10 to 15 MPH...
***FIREWORKS DISPLAY (10 PM)***
For now I have decided to end the showers and thunderstorms in my Western areas... I'm still going to run with a small chance in my Central and Eastern areas...This could change, will updated if needed... Temps at the 10 PM should range from the middle 60s up North to lower to middle 70s Central and Southern areas... Winds Southwest/West around 5 to 10 MPH....
***MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY***
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at any given time.. Highs either side of 80... Lows in the Middle 60s cooling to the upper 50s by Wednesday night....
***NOTE***
The forecast for the fireworks display 10 PM...May be changing throughout the day.... Stay tune for updates....
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Just a few pictures
Friday, July 2, 2010
Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI
A good kite flying day today and tomorrow...Also temps will keep their upward climb reaching for the 90 degree mark for Saturday..
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At this 9 AM hr temps are in the lower to middle 70s throughout the FA...Dewpoints are in the upper 50s to lower 60s... Winds are out of the South/Southwest from 10 to 15 MPH with a few stations reporting gusts up to 20 MPH... All stations reporting sunny skies...
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Strong high pressure to our East/Southeast and low pressure system and cold front to our West...Pressure gradients will increase more today which will allow for a rather windy today/night/and Saturday... This also help usher in more warmer and humid air into the FA.... Winds could gusts up to around 30 MPH today and Saturday.. With the high pressure in control of our weather through Saturday, what you see is what you will get through Saturday... Sunny skies...
Saturday night gets a tad tricky.. Most of the models are now seeing eye to eye on the placement and timing of the cold front... Have decided to add a small chance of showers and thunderstorms to Saturday nights forecast....As the cold front starts to slowly work Eastwards... Also LLJ is forecasted to increase to around 40 to 50 KNTS thinking is as right now thunderstorms should form into a MCS... I don’t foresee a severe weather threat for my FA ATTM, as the main show should remain South of the area, nevertheless there is enough of threat some of these storms could work into the FA Saturday night....4th of July... Well I hate to say this but it does look to be a wet one... This will depend if the cold front pushes through early enough.. As of right now it appears the cold front may not push through until late afternoon/early evening.... If this is the case look for off and showers and thunderstorms through out the day into the overnight hrs... With any luck the showers and thunderstorms will have pushed out of the FA by 10 PM... Temps will also be problematic some of the computer models are keeping temps in the middle to upper 70s.... Thinking is that may be to cool, especially if the cold front does not clear the area... So for right now I will keep the 80s going for the 4th even though we should be locked under a thick cloud deck... Still thinking if we get some peaks of sun temps will be warmer... So will try to nail that down better in tomorrow's forecast.... Fast look ahead into time....Next week temps look to be rather cool with upper 70s and lower 80s....
***TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY***
Sunny skies with temps in the middle 80s today upper 80s to lower 90s tomorrow... Winds 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH both today and Saturday from the South...
***4TH OF JULY***
Mostly cloudy with a showers and thunderstorms highs in the lower to middle 80s... Winds shall be lighter from the South/Southwest around 5 to 10 MPH....
***10 PM FIREWORKS DISPLAY**
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms temps should range from 68 to 73 winds Southwest to West around 5 to 10 MPH... We shall see if we can get this forecast to change for the better...
*** MONDAY***
Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of morning showers and thunderstorms highs either side of 80.....
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At this 9 AM hr temps are in the lower to middle 70s throughout the FA...Dewpoints are in the upper 50s to lower 60s... Winds are out of the South/Southwest from 10 to 15 MPH with a few stations reporting gusts up to 20 MPH... All stations reporting sunny skies...
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Strong high pressure to our East/Southeast and low pressure system and cold front to our West...Pressure gradients will increase more today which will allow for a rather windy today/night/and Saturday... This also help usher in more warmer and humid air into the FA.... Winds could gusts up to around 30 MPH today and Saturday.. With the high pressure in control of our weather through Saturday, what you see is what you will get through Saturday... Sunny skies...
Saturday night gets a tad tricky.. Most of the models are now seeing eye to eye on the placement and timing of the cold front... Have decided to add a small chance of showers and thunderstorms to Saturday nights forecast....As the cold front starts to slowly work Eastwards... Also LLJ is forecasted to increase to around 40 to 50 KNTS thinking is as right now thunderstorms should form into a MCS... I don’t foresee a severe weather threat for my FA ATTM, as the main show should remain South of the area, nevertheless there is enough of threat some of these storms could work into the FA Saturday night....4th of July... Well I hate to say this but it does look to be a wet one... This will depend if the cold front pushes through early enough.. As of right now it appears the cold front may not push through until late afternoon/early evening.... If this is the case look for off and showers and thunderstorms through out the day into the overnight hrs... With any luck the showers and thunderstorms will have pushed out of the FA by 10 PM... Temps will also be problematic some of the computer models are keeping temps in the middle to upper 70s.... Thinking is that may be to cool, especially if the cold front does not clear the area... So for right now I will keep the 80s going for the 4th even though we should be locked under a thick cloud deck... Still thinking if we get some peaks of sun temps will be warmer... So will try to nail that down better in tomorrow's forecast.... Fast look ahead into time....Next week temps look to be rather cool with upper 70s and lower 80s....
***TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY***
Sunny skies with temps in the middle 80s today upper 80s to lower 90s tomorrow... Winds 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH both today and Saturday from the South...
***4TH OF JULY***
Mostly cloudy with a showers and thunderstorms highs in the lower to middle 80s... Winds shall be lighter from the South/Southwest around 5 to 10 MPH....
***10 PM FIREWORKS DISPLAY**
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms temps should range from 68 to 73 winds Southwest to West around 5 to 10 MPH... We shall see if we can get this forecast to change for the better...
*** MONDAY***
Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of morning showers and thunderstorms highs either side of 80.....
Thursday, July 1, 2010
The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI
For the most part the forecast shall stand... Hot and humid temps are forthcoming for the 4th of July weekend, along with chances of showers and thunderstorms on the 4th last through Tuesday...
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
As of 10:15 this morning.. Temps for the most part in the lower to middle 70s, cooler along the shores of Lake Superior... Dewpoints have started their up the ladder upper 50s to lower 60s.. Winds are out of the South/Southeast around 10 MPH...Under sunny to mostly sunny skies..
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
A large area of high pressure ridge is under control of our weather... 1029 MB high pressure is centered over Western MI this morning... Meanwhile we see a 1006 MB low pressure just North of ND in Canada with and cold front reaching South/Southwest of said low.. Later today the high pressure off to our East is forecasted to drop into Southwestern MI.. Winds will pick up between these two features.. Should range from 10 to 20 MPH today out of the South/Southeast...
Friday the high pressure moves into the OH valley we will still see it's effects over the FA with sunny skies, winds are forecasted to be stronger on Friday.. We may see wind gusts up to 30 MPH over our wind prone areas...System/cold front out to the West will make little Eastward movement ..What is interesting is the high pressure is forecasted to move into Western NY by Sat then dive Southwards into the Mid Atlantic area.... This high still should keep our skies sunny through out the day... Winds still will be a problem... As the system out West tries to break through the ridge... Sunday the high/ridge moves more Eastwards allowing for the System out West to start to push East.... Models are somewhat in agreement of placement of the cold front... Timing of this system is the main problem... Models have slowed it down some... If this trend keep up we still may be able to have a dry 4th... Will still keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for now.. As the cold front is forecasted to move through MN towards the FA.... We may see a break in the action come Monday, before a much stronger cold front pushes into the FA with another round of showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday evening's time frame....
***TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY***
Mostly sunny skies with highs in the middle 80s today and Friday... Highs shoot for the upper 80s to the 90 degree mark on Saturday. Winds through this time frame ranging from 10 to 20 MPH.... Lows in the 60s tonight and again Friday night.. Low Saturday night upper 60s to around 70s....
***4TH OF JULY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT***
A chance of showers and thunderstorms highs in the middle 80s.. Still think temps can be closer to 90 if we get breaks in the cloudy cover... Lows Sunday night in the middle 60s ....Tomorrow will have the 4th of July fireworks forecast for the 10 PM hr of the 4th...
***MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY***
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorm highs in the middle 80s with lows middle 60s on Monday night cooling to the upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday night...
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
As of 10:15 this morning.. Temps for the most part in the lower to middle 70s, cooler along the shores of Lake Superior... Dewpoints have started their up the ladder upper 50s to lower 60s.. Winds are out of the South/Southeast around 10 MPH...Under sunny to mostly sunny skies..
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
A large area of high pressure ridge is under control of our weather... 1029 MB high pressure is centered over Western MI this morning... Meanwhile we see a 1006 MB low pressure just North of ND in Canada with and cold front reaching South/Southwest of said low.. Later today the high pressure off to our East is forecasted to drop into Southwestern MI.. Winds will pick up between these two features.. Should range from 10 to 20 MPH today out of the South/Southeast...
Friday the high pressure moves into the OH valley we will still see it's effects over the FA with sunny skies, winds are forecasted to be stronger on Friday.. We may see wind gusts up to 30 MPH over our wind prone areas...System/cold front out to the West will make little Eastward movement ..What is interesting is the high pressure is forecasted to move into Western NY by Sat then dive Southwards into the Mid Atlantic area.... This high still should keep our skies sunny through out the day... Winds still will be a problem... As the system out West tries to break through the ridge... Sunday the high/ridge moves more Eastwards allowing for the System out West to start to push East.... Models are somewhat in agreement of placement of the cold front... Timing of this system is the main problem... Models have slowed it down some... If this trend keep up we still may be able to have a dry 4th... Will still keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for now.. As the cold front is forecasted to move through MN towards the FA.... We may see a break in the action come Monday, before a much stronger cold front pushes into the FA with another round of showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday evening's time frame....
***TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY***
Mostly sunny skies with highs in the middle 80s today and Friday... Highs shoot for the upper 80s to the 90 degree mark on Saturday. Winds through this time frame ranging from 10 to 20 MPH.... Lows in the 60s tonight and again Friday night.. Low Saturday night upper 60s to around 70s....
***4TH OF JULY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT***
A chance of showers and thunderstorms highs in the middle 80s.. Still think temps can be closer to 90 if we get breaks in the cloudy cover... Lows Sunday night in the middle 60s ....Tomorrow will have the 4th of July fireworks forecast for the 10 PM hr of the 4th...
***MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY***
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorm highs in the middle 80s with lows middle 60s on Monday night cooling to the upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday night...
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