Forecast discussion for Western/Northwestern WI

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This forecast discussion will revolve around the severe weather threat for tonight and into tomorrow...

***CURRENT CONDITION***

Temps have soared back into the middle 80s throughout all of the FA...Dewpoints have also climbed into the lower to middle 60s... meanwhile winds are out of the South/Southwest form 8 to 13 MPH with gusts as high as 22 MPH....Skies are partly cloudy to mostly sunny....Radar is showing a few showers and thunderstorms in Western St.Croix County, with another area of showers about to inter Western Polk County.. As of 3:49 PM....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

SFC analysis off the RUC shows a 1015 MB high pressure just East of MI.. A cold front in far Northwestern MN droping down through ND and SD....Winds have backed to the South/Southwest last night between these two features Bringing in warmer temps along with higher dewpoints... Cape values are running between 1500 J/KG to around 2000 J/KG... While LIS are running from 0c to -2c across the FA.... NAM shows darn near the same....So will use NAM model for tonight and tomorrow, however will blend in GFS in and there...

Cold front is forecasted to slowly move towards the FA tonight.... Showers and thunderstorms will become more pronounced as we head into the evening and overnight hrs. Some of these thunderstorms could become quite grumpy to severe, as the LLJ is forecasted to increase.. 0-30 KM Cape increases to around 2500 J/KG....Still I'm overly thrilled about severe weather chances tonight... Meos analysis from the SPC confirms this rather well... Still can't rule out a severe storm around the area, as we all noted this up in Bayfield County,as of 4:22 PM...Look for this trend to keep alive as we head into the evening...Won't be widespread thunderstorms by all means.. Tomorrow's severe weather threat will depend on two factors...1 How fast can the overnight storms clear the area... 2... Where the cold front sets up... As of right Am banking on the cold front to be into my Central Counties on my Western FA... So points East from Polk, St.Croix Counties would have a better chance for severe thunderstorms...Still I'm not overly thrilled about this either, as cloud cover and ongoing showers/storms seem plausible... Seems like the best area for severe thunderstorms will be well South like in IA,Parts of NE down into MO.... Will have see how the overnight storms play out and where the cold front really does setup....

Looking into Wednesday.... This could be a big severe weather outbreak for the FA... Still to far out to get overly excited about, however it sure does catch my eyes....