Severe thunderstorms for Sunday,yes,no,or maybe?

Main problems that will be dealt in this forecast discussion is the severe weather threat, for Sunday, along with temps this weekend... More humid air is poised to move back into the FA... Lots to hash out so lets dive into it...


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

SFC OBS showing temps in the lower 60s to middle 60s... Dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s ... Skies are mostly sunny... Winds are calm throughout the FA...

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Today the FA still locked under a 1020 MB high pressure which is centered over NE.. This is forecasted to move towards the East throughout the weekend, should be centered over Eastern OH/Western PA by late Saturday night/early Sunday morning.... This should allow our pleasant summer time weather pattern to continue through today and a good deal of Saturday...With the WAA kicking in for Saturday and moisture returning to the area have decided to add a small chance of showers and thunderstorms into Saturday's afternoon time frame...Saturday night there is a better chance at showers and thunderstorms as a shortwave rides into the area... A cold front is forecasted to drop South during the day on Sunday... This is were we run into a handful of troubles concerning the severe weather threat..... 1st of the bat is.. Cloud cover/any left over showers/storms in the morning hrs on Sunday... How fast will this clear the area, if it does.... 2nd out of the gates.. will be deep level moisture along with instabilities... Will any MCS form Saturday night to our South in IA/MO and rob said dynamics from the area... 3rd on the plate... Is how fast to move this system as some of the models are trying to push the cold front through the FA early Sunday night....

Ok so Number 1... RH fields off the 700-850 MB charts does show for a mostly cloudy skies for Sunday so if this does play out, and we don't get a few hrs of sunshine forget about the severe weather threat.....If we can breaks in the cloud cover to allow for a few hrs of SFC heating then we can deal with this problem which is number 2 on our charts.... Will there be enough deep level moisture and instabilities.. GFS keeps LIS right around 0c GFS shows the dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s throughout much of my FA, however the deeper moisture remains South of the area... Which really doesn’t make sense as GFS is painting a thunderstorm complex to form over Northern/Central MN Sunday evening, and then moves into Central and Northern parts of the FA.. That is the main action area.... Meanwhile looking at NAM model... Nam likes the idea of dewpoints in the middle 60s, and it's also keeping the deeper moisture South of the FA... Nam does paint a thunderstorm complex this matches up with it's moisture area unlike the GFS... Thunderstorm complex forms over Southern MN Sunday evening and moves through my Southern FA, may clip some of my Central areas... Nam is showing LIS around 0c to -2c.... Number 3 which was hit upon above some...

Thinking is showers and thunderstorms should be clearing the area around the midnight hr....... Ok now here is the thinking about severe weather threat for my FA..... Cold front moving into the area will cause showers and thunderstorms to form/reform during the afternoon... Without any substantial SFC heating storms should remain below the severe weather threat thresholds... We could see a few strong storms which may produce some gusty winds and small hail... Main severe weather threat will be down in NE/IA/KS... This will help insure the FA that severe thunderstorms stay at bay.... This is subject to change... I will update this tomorrow if needed..