***SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY***

***SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK***


A severe weather outbreak is forecasted for later this afternoon into the overnight hrs....Thunderstorms are forecasted to form out over in MN and push their way East/Southeastwards.... Thunderstorms are forecasted to form into MCS/multi lines of storms....

Southerly flow today will bring in higher dewpoints upper 60s to lower 70s..May see some middle 70 dewpoints realized ,also temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s... There is some differences in the model this morning GFS seems to be a little fast in the movement and placement of the low pressure system... It takes the low through Central MN and into WI... Meanwhile NAM takes the low and moves into from MN down into IA... Either way severe thunderstorms are going to be likely throughout much of my FA later this afternoon/evening into the overnight hrs... Warm front will push North followed by a cold front.... Thinking is the best area for tornados shall be found in MN around the tripple point..Also this is where wind shear on the order of 30 KTS is forecasted to setup.. However tornados will also be possible in my FA along the warm frontal boundary...Most of today the cap shall win out, however later this afternoon into the evening hrs the cap is forecasted to weaken as thunderstorms blow in MN and work Eastwards...Thunderstorms should form into lines/MCS throughout the evening and into the overnight hrs once this happens the thunderstorm complex should begin to drop Southeastwards...With main threats then becoming damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall also going to be a concern....... Today will be hot and humid highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s seem to be plausible... So people that need to be outside today should drink plenty of water, and take frequent breaks... Best thing is to stay out of the sun as much as possible, or stay inside an AC building...

So to recap the severe weather threat...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible... Timing Am going to run between 5 PM through 1 AM or so... Threats will be a few tornados will be possible, very large hail along with straight line damaging winds... The threat this turns to a damaging wind threat along with hail... Also have to add very heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding problems, like what we saw back on the 14th....
People will want to keep a close hear on your weather radio or you favorite radio/TV station for possible watches and warnings this evening throughout the over night hrs.....

Good news is we shall get a break from this heat and humidity Sunday through Tuesday, before it all returns in the middle part of next week... Still the weather pattern looks to be active through next week....