Sunday, July 10, 2011

Fast forecast discussion.

Forecast problems….The chance of thunderstorms this evening and overnight tonight….Then temps cool off big time for the rest of the work week before another warm spell hits for next weekend.


Still may see some severe thunderstorms this evening….Reason why we won’t…..Shear is really not all there…..Forcing is on the weak side….Still we had had a few hours of SFC heating so instabilities have came back up, as the atmosphere has destabilized ….CU has started to build so we will keep an eye on the radar to see if anything can get going and hold it's own....
So we still can’t rule out severe thunderstorms at this point, however we are slowly starting to lean the other way….


More important is the cluster of severe thunderstorms that have really took off over ND and far Northern SD…This is forecasted to move East then Southeast…This should form into, has already started to form into a MCS…..Questions is 1 will is make it into the FA…2 how strong will it be…. Answers ….1 we feel this will roll into the area later tonight sometime around midnight give or take an hour or so….2…. With the lost of the daytime heating, and still not much forcing....Feeling right as of the time of this written we feel they won’t be a widespread severe weather threat…An ISO severe storm is possible….Should see strong storms nevertheless….We will update this and the short term forecast around 7PM tonight…Will keep watching the trends and live weather data……..

Temps Monday still warm but less humid…middle 80s…..Rest of the week temps fall into the middle to upper 70s…..

This upcoming weekend temps warm back up into the upper 80s lower 90s…..