Friday, August 26, 2011

The forecast for Western & Northwestern WI.

The chance of showers and thunderstorms for today, how far south into the FA to place them….. Temps will be a roller coaster ride throughout the short/middle/and long term periods. Did warm temps up in the longer periods, though not confident in this….


At 9 AM skies range from cloudy to partly cloudy throughout the FA…Temps in the middle 60s to the lower 70s. DP temps in the lower 60s…Winds South/Southwest 6 to 8 MPH with a few higher gusts…


Radar is showing an area of showers and thunderstorms over my far Northeastern areas this morning extending down into Rusk County….This area has been driven mainly by an area of forcing way ahead of the cold front, which is now in Northwestern MN…Cold front should enter the FA around 18z and then clear the area around 22z per DLH WRF model…Not a lot of moisture for this front to work with, instabilities are not that great either….Overall dynamics just aren’t there…Nevertheless there is a little forcing and there shall be some lift along the cold front and boundaries left over from this morning convection…With that said will run with a small chance of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon mainly in my Northern to Central areas… Shower and storm chances in my Southern areas not looking good at all with the thunderstorms in IA ….

Have up temps for today a little will run with 78 to 83…..Tonight high pressure takes over this will allow for a chilly night across the FA with some middle 40s North to 50s Central and South…. Saturday will be a great day under sunny skies with highs in the lower to middle 70s…Sunday another trough/cold front is forecasted to push into the area once again there will be a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms right through Sunday night….Thought about dropping rain chances from the forecast as the same setup seems to be in place though this system is somewhat weaker….Next chance of showers and storms looks to be in the Wednesday through Thursday time frame…. Temps will be cooler for much of the upcoming work week….Highs in the lower to middle 70s through mid week… Lows in the 50s…..Slightly warmer temps forecasted by week’s end.


TODAY…. Partly cloudy a few showers and thunderstorms, highs 78 to 83… Winds South/Southwest becoming 10 to 15 MPH. west/Northwest this afternoon.

TONIGHT… Partly cloudy cool lows 48 to 50. Winds North/Northwest 5 to 10 MPH becoming calm.

SUNDAY & SUNDAY NIGHT…. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, highs 68 to 73. Lows 48 to 50.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT… Partly cloudy, highs 70 to 75, lows 50 to 55.

WEDNESDAY THOUGH THURSDAY…. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms… Highs in the middle to upper 70s with lows in the middle to upper 50s.


About the only thing I did here was to up temps, not really confident in doing that but the last two model runs did show warmer temps than we had in our other forecast…. Thinking is we may end up dropping them back off once again…..

There will still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the this period, really hard to time things this far out in time…

Confidence level in precip moderate, confidence level in temps low.


2ND … Showers and thunderstorm possible, highs 75 to 80.Lows 50 to 55.

3rd …. Showers and thunderstorms possible, highs 70 to 75. Lows 45 to 50.

4th… Showers and thunderstorms early than dry… Highs 65 to 70 lows 45 to 50.

5th… Dry highs 65 to 70 lows 50 to 55.

6th… A slight chance of showers highs 70 to 75 lows 60 to 65.

7th…. Dry highs 75 to 80 lows 60 to 65.

8th & 9th… Showers and thunderstorms highs 70 to 75 lows 55 to 60.

10th & 11th…. Dry highs 60 to 65 lows 45 to 40.