Friday, August 5, 2011

Severe weather threat for Saturday evening/night.

Severe thunderstorms are possible tomorrow evening into the overnight hours of Saturday…Storms could still be around for early Sunday morning….

The setup to the possible severe weather event...

Today we find a stationary frontal boundary across Northern MN a few thunderstorm may form up there, however none a forecasted to be severe….We also find a 1006 MB low pressure system over MT/Northern WY… Warm and humid air will be flowing into the FA today and Saturday…Saturday the low/shortwave is forecasted to begin it’s trip across the ND….The frontal boundary is forecasted to slip a little South during the day….Thinking is most of the thunderstorms will be confined to MN in the afternoon….Low pressure is forecasted to trek along the frontal boundary Saturday night and should be in Northern WI early Sunday morning….This is forecasted to drag a cold front into and through the FA between 02z through 06z…. Ongoing thunderstorms over in MN are forecasted to become MCS/lines as they push into WI….Still models have not made up their minds on how widespread this event shall be…Something we will have to wait for more model runs……Cap is forecasted to weak and with most dynamics in place severe thunderstorms should be a good bet for parts of the FA… ATTM thinking is central and Northern areas will have the better chance per latest computer model guidance….


Main threat would be large hail along with damaging winds, heavy rainfall will also be possible once again if the storms are slow movers and train over the same areas for a few hours….

More thunderstorms will be possible Monday night through Wednesday afternoon, as of right now these thunderstorms look to remain below severe thresholds….

Fast look at the next week’s forecast….
Don’t like the warm and humid air that has been locked in place for some time now? Don’t worry a big cool down on tap for the FA…Temps may not even hit 70 by Wednesday and Thursday…Lower 70s after Monday’s middle 70s…. Lows in the lower 50s…. Will have to watch Wed and Thurs. lows they may bottom out in the upper 40s…