Saturday, November 5, 2011

Snow looking more likely for Tuesday night into early Wednesday..Forecast below.

Forecast concerns….This weekend….Windy conditions…Rain snow for Tuesday through early Wednesday…..

At 10 AM all stations are reporting PC to sunny skies….Temps range from the low 40s to middle 40s….Winds from the South/Southeast from 9 to 21 MPH with gusts ranging from 15 to 28 MPH.

Really did change too much with ongoing forecast….Did Warm temps up a little for Monday….. Ridge of high pressure from upstate New York down to MS will still keep our skies clear through today…. Meanwhile a system out in Western SD into CO will gets its act together as it pushes into Canada..Pressure gradients have already tightened up over the early morning hours….See no reason why this mixing down won’t hold strong….So today will be a hold onto your hat day, in fact the whole weekend shall be like that….. Low pressure deepens to around 992 MBS as it heads into Canada, this will also slam a cold front into the area on Sunday….Still could see a few showers here and there, won’t be nothing to write home about though….Our next system to effect the area looks to be stronger than forecasted last night per ECMWF…..What is interesting is that GFS and NAM keep a Southerly track on this system, while ECMWF holds onto the same track…. Looking back at last winter we saw this same setup with the models….I would think GFS and NAM will come around to ECMWF’s thinking…So with that said will run with the old faithful….We see a 1004 low pressure system taking shape over Northwestern TX Monday night, this low is forecasted to push into Southeast KS late Monday night….Then is forecasted to track up into South Central WI then into the UP of MI as it does it is forecasted to strengthen to 997 MBS…..So another wind jammer for Tuesday night through Wednesday….Moisture looks to be no problem with this system….Precip type is looking better for all snow for parts of WI…..Snow line should setup from Central Pierce to Southern Dunn and Chippewa Counties….Counties South of this line should remain all rain, however may end as some light snow….Counties North of this line should remain all snow….Will start off with a rain snow mix……Way to early to start to talk about snowfall amounts…Once again I used the ECMWF model as this seems to be the model of choice…NAM and GFS are way to South…Doing some studies from last winter systems and looking at how each model handled the storms…ECMWF model won hands down….We see this trend showing up once again…..


TODAY & NIGHT…Partly cloudy highs 50 to 55.Tonight slight chance of showers lows 35 to 40..Windy, winds from the South/Southeast 15 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.

SUNDAY…Cloudy slight chance of showers. Highs 45 to 50…Still windy…Winds 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH from the Southwest..

SUNDAY NIGHT… Clearing lows 28 to 32.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT… Dry highs 40 to 45 lows 28 to 32.

TUESDAY….Increasing clouds rain/snow late highs 40 to 43

TUESDAY NIGHT. rain/ snow changing to all snow. Lows 30 to 32

WEDNESDAY. a chance of snow in the morning…. Highs 32 to 35.

WENDESDAY NIGHT. Clearing lows 25 to 30.

THUR THROUGH FRIDAY… DRY highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s while lows fall to the lower 20s to around 30 by Friday night.


This time frame will be known as the mini cold snap, also looks like we could be dealing with another winter storm around the 15th/16th time frame….GFS is way out to lunch on the track and keeps warmer air in place….Meanwhile ECWMF keeps the track right on target to give us a good dump of snow...This far out I won’t bet the farm on anything….We will fine tune this as we get closer to this time frame….