Wednesday, November 23, 2011

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Forecast has been tweaked some.See Saturday and Saturday night. I did leave the forecast disucussion as is, see about for updated forecast short term forecast discussion for this weekend. Paul

Forecast problems…. Will be the cloud cover and areas of fog…Vis satellite shows most of the FA locked under clouds and fog…Some clearing noted over Burnett County, however more cloud back in MN… Thinking is to run with mostly cloudy to pc cloudy skies.. May be a storm system to impact the area for Friday night through Saturday evening…More detail on this below.


At 10 AM skies are cloudy at all stations with some fog being reported as well….Temps range from the middle 30s to upper 30s….Winds range from 7 to 13 MPH out of the Southwest….


Looking at the SFC charts we find a 1001 MB low pressure over Southern part of NY State with a cold front extending down into the FL panhandle than out into the GOM….This system should pose problems for parts of VT,NH, and ME for Thanksgiving day…Looks like that area could see 4 to 8 inches of snow…..Meanwhile a ridge of high pressure is still locked in place through the upper Midwest down into the Central and Southwestern States…..Large storm system is found over the Northwest Pacific Coast states….Fog and low clouds for today as we talked about earlier…..Still have a gut feeling that we should run with Mostly cloudy skies as we have a inversion in place the warm air aloft and the melting snow pack has been keeping us cloudy and foggy the last few days….Really see no reason why this won’t stay the rule for today…Models really aren’t doing so great with this….Thanksgiving day Am still banking on sunny skies…This will allow temps to reach into the middle to upper 40s throughout the FA…Most of the snowpack should be depleted by then…Record highs for Thanksgiving day is 55…That record should remain safe…There could be a few 50 degree readings in my far Southern parts of the FA….Cold front starts to drop into the FA for Friday so with more clouds around will lower temps from Thanksgiving day…Will run with lower 40s to middle 40s….Late Friday night and Saturday….Low pressure is forecasted to form along the cold front over the Twin Cities to EAU Claire…..Than is forecasted to move towards the Northeast….Will run with plain old rain for Friday night…Then mix and change the rain to all snow for Saturday for my Central and Northern areas…Will stay all rain in my Southern areas until late Saturday night then should see the rain mix with snow down there….There could be several inches of snow….Thinking is should be like last weekend’s storm system….Still to early to know for sure, model are in good agreement on it, some timing issues and the track is still a little unclear….If this pans out as the models are forecasting attm this system could have an impact of travel plans back home…We will need to watch this very close……Will not chance the forecast for Tuesday as models not have a good agreement of this next system see long term discussion for info on this….

WEDNESDAY. Mostly cloudy may see some breaks from time to time…Highs 38 to 43

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Areas of fog partly cloudy.. Lows 28 to 34

THANKSGIVING DAY. Sunny highs 44 to 48

THURSDAY NIGHT. Increasing clouds, lows 30 to 35

FRIDAY. Cloudy. Highs 40 to 45

FRIDAY NIGHT. Cloudy a chance of rain. Lows 34 to 38

SATURDAY. Cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs 35 to 40 than falling.

SATURDAY NIGHT. Cloudy a chance of rain mixing with and changing over to light snow,Little or no accumulations. lows 25 to 30

SUNDAY. PC highs 30 to 35.

MONDAY. Partly cloudy 30 to 35.

MONDAY NIGHT. Cloudy with a chance of snow lows 23 to 26

TUESDAY. Cloudy chance of snow. 28 to 30

TUESDAY NIGHT. Chance of snow lows 20 to 25


Models have been all over the place on a low pressure system that is forecasted to form in MS…ECMWF moves the low Northeast.GFS on the other hand forms the low a little more to East/Northeast then moves the low to OH them retrogrades it back to the Northwest into Lake MI, GEM is more in the line of thinking as ECMWF…..So with this being so unclear we have decided not to change the first part of the long term forecast…Will give it a few more days to decide if we need to make changes…..Will keep a slight chance of snow going from the 1ts through the 4th as a cold front is swept into the areas from a deepening low pressure system to our North up in Canada. We may need to bump up the temps a little, again we won’t do that just yet as this is the first time one model is showing temps to be warmer, while the others keep the temps forecasted below the same...


30th. Snow ending highs 25 to 30 lows 15 to 20

1st . Slight chance of Snow highs 20 to 25 lows 15 to 20

2nd. Slight chance of Snow highs 20 to 25 lows 1o to 15

3rd Snow highs 20 to 25 lows 10 to 15

4th . Slight chance of snow highs 20 to 25 lows 8 to 13

5th.. Dry highs 15 to 20 lows 5 to 10

6th. Dry highs 15 to 20 lows 10 15

7th .Dry highs 15 to 20 lows 5 to 10

8th. Dry 20 to 25 lows 10 to 15

9th . Dry 20 to 25 lows 10 to 15.