Saturday, January 7, 2012

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Forecast will mainly deal with the weather pattern change that is coming next week.. It will be a big one!! Just as we have been forecasting for sometime now.....

At 1:00 PM Skies range from Partly sunny to mostly cloudy throughout the FA…Temps range from the upper 20s to lower 30s….Winds are out of the West/Northwest from 5 to 9 MPH.

Short wave that moved through the area during the overnight has now pushed into Eastern WI…Some clearing has taken place behind this…Still some more clouds out over Central/ Northern MN to work either way into the area…Have decided to run with partly cloudy to cloudy wording in the forecast, this will cover today rather well. Temps will be a tad cooler today as CAA has over taken the FA…Still temps will be about 20 degrees above normal. Later this afternoon or evening we will see another short wave drop into the area from Canada…This wave will be a fast hitter with just clouds, no moisture for it to work with so no snow is forecast…..Sunday a high pressure system drops into the area this will allow for skies to start to clear after 2 AM setting the stages for a mostly sunny day tomorrow and Monday….A warm front is forecasted to blast through the area Monday night this will allow for warmer reading on Tuesday…The way it looks record highs for Tuesday should be safe….Record high is 44 degrees …We are forecasting lower 40s…..Either way it will be another warm day in the Northwoods…..

Today… Partly cloudy to cloudy, highs 30 to 33.
Tonight… Becoming cloudy early, lows around 20 to 24….Becoming clear after 2 AM.
Sunday… Mostly sunny, highs 29 to 33.
Sunday Night… Partly cloudy to clear, lows 20 to 24.
Monday… Sunny, highs 35 to 30.. Lows 20 to 24.
Tuesday… Partly cloudy to mostly sunny, Highs 35 to 40, lows 24 to 28.
Confidence level is moderate to high…

Big changes forthcoming in the weather pattern we have been locked under….With a chance of significant snowfall for my Central and Northern areas for Wednesday and Wednesday night..For now will run with a chance of snow, thought about running with snow likely wording as ECMWF model has showing this strong storm system the last few days now……..Then a blast of Arctic air….
ECMWF model forms a low pressure over ND/SD then tracks it to the Southeast to around the Twin Cities areas then through Central WI Wednesday and Wednesday night..GFS has been an outlier so will disregard it…..
Should be plenty of moisture for this strong low pressure to work with cold air throughout the column to keep prcip all snow through my Central and Northern areas. My far Southern areas could see some light rain before changing over to some light snow, as of right now precip chances are slim at best down there…One thing that is a giving for the whole forecast area will be the Arctic blast….We may have our lows on Thursday night to warm, we may have to drop them below zero… Will depend on if we get a good snow pack, and how fast clouds clear out…Still time to play with that…

Wednesday… Cloudy a chance snow highs 25 to 28 then falling in the afternoon….
Wednesday Night… Cloudy with a chance of snow lows around 5 to 10.
Thursday… Mostly cloudy highs 10 to 15.
Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy lows 0 to 5.
Friday…. Partly cloudy highs 13 to 16….
Confidence level is rather high through this period.


Temps will highly depend on how much of a snow pack is on the ground…So as of right now we could be to warm with the long term temps…Though through most of this time frame we are looking at below normal temps…
There will off and on chances of snow throughout the period….So the weather pattern will have changed to colder than normal from the middle term into this forecast cycle…

Sat 14….Dry highs 15 to 20 lows 5 to 10
Sun 15… Dry highs 15 to 20 lows -10 to -5
Mon 16… Slight chance of snow highs 10 to 15 lows -5 to 0
Tue 17… slight chance of snow highs 15 to 20 lows -5 to 0
Wed 18.. Dry highs 10 to 15 lows -5 to 0
Thur 19… Dry highs 5 to 10 lows -10 to -5
Fri 20… Slight chance of snow highs 10 to 15 lows 0 to 5
Sat 21.. Slight chance of snow highs 10 to 15 lows 0 to 5
Sun 22... slight chance of snow highs 15 to 20 lows 5 to 10
Mon 23... Dry highs 20 to 25 lows 10 to 15.
Confidence level is low on temps and precip chances… As stated above temps will be highly depend on the snow pack…I did undercut model guidance through this forecast cycle to account for the snow pack.
Normal highs through this period...20 to 21....Normal lows for this period...1 above..