Forecast...Possible accumulating snows..Maybe...

Forecast headaches...Short term none...Long term accumulating snows for our WI Counties Tuesday through Wednesday night...More on that later...Temps will also become a problem,along with winds...
Current Conditions....
Temps are mainly in the upper teens to lower 20s across my MN zones,meanwhile temps in my WI zones are in the middle to upper 20s at this hour....Reporting stations are coming in with cloudy skies...Radar showing a band of light snow/flurries across Barron,Burnett,Sawyer,and Washburn Counties....Looking out my office window here in Rice Lake,we have light snow falling and a dusting of snow...
SFC Analyses...
We find a strong area of low pressure in Southern IL..Pressure reading on this low is down to around 996 MBS...We see a trof reaching back into our Southern Zones from said low,along with a weak area of low pressure over far ND...
Today through Monday night...
Low pressure over IL is forecasted to move Northeast into Central IN by 18z today,meanwhile weak trof will move through our FA...By 0z Monday the low over IN will move into Northeast IN and deepen to around 989 MBS.Then push into far Northeast MI by 12z Monday...by this time most of the FA will see a break in the light snow/flurries...However in our snow belts of WI will have to keep chances of snow alive as cold air flows over Lake Superior...Really don't see any problems with attm,just light snow/flurries....
Tuesday through Wednesday night...
Here is were the major headaches start....What model to believe in...GFS still has a 992 MB over Canada moving towards the Northern area of MN...This will drag a cold front through the area around the Tuesday night/Wednesdays time frame....Now lets look at the ECMWF model....Here we see a low pressure of 996 MBS forming over KS..This model pushes the low into Southwestern WI than into Central MI....GEM seems to agree with ECWMF on this out come...Yesterday I threw out these models and went with GFS...Today I will run with ECWMF and blend GFS into it...So with that said...A good deal of our WI zones could see accumulating snow through this time frame.If and only if this models pan out.....I'm still on the edge of my seat about this change...All said models have been holding their own for the most part..Though did notice GFS was slowly coming online with the ECWMF...We shall see how this will all play out....One thing that is for sure on all the model Med and Long range is that temps will go down...Another shot of Arctic air on it's way for this time frame and through the end of the work week....Winds will be a problem with either solution....As pressure gradients increases behind the cold front...I will be updating this forecast later today...I see no other choice in this attm...

Forecasted snowfall amounts

This will all depend on the track of the storm system into the OH Valley....Low pressure sliding off to our Southwest will bring Western and Northwest their snowfall,mean while said low will push into MO and phase with the low moving Northeast into the OH Valley this will cause Southern WI their snowfall...See above map...

Forecast...

Side note this forecast was issued @ 5 am this morning...So the current conditions will be off!!
Also radar is showing snow increasing in coverage arcoss MN @ 7:51 am this morning....


Forecast problems short term none...Long term temps,and precip chances...

Current Conditions...
Temps are uniformed across the FA this morning....Mainly in the middle to upper teens...Skies in MN for the most part are mostly cloudy while in WI skies are clear to partly cloudy.IR satellite concurs....Winds rather light at this hour..Radar is showing an area of light snow up in the Itasca and Cass Counties..DBZ is null with this area,so thinking is it's not reaching the ground...Radar trends have this areas dissipating as it was moving East Northeast...Taking a fast look at the regional radars..We find not much out there at this hour...
SFC Analysis...
This morning's SFC map shows an area of week low pressure over Far Western MN...MBS around 1012...This low is forecasted to move Southeast into South Central MN around 18z today...By 00z Sunday the low should be just South of the Twin Cities area..By 06z Sunday said low is forecasted to drop into MO..At the same time we find another weaker short wave dropping out of Canada both of these features will drag a cold front through the area..
Today through Sunday night...
Clouds will be on the increase for those areas currently under partly to clear skies...Low pressure will slide off to our Southwest ...Moisture is null for this system,however some lift showing up in our Southern zones...These areas have the best chance at seeing some light snow...I'm not to trilled about accumulations...If I was to hedge a guess less than 1/2 inch...However will not add that into the forecast with dry air over head,as what little moisture around will go into getting the air saturated...Will keep snow going through Sunday do to the mass of system taking shape to our South/Southeast...This system could push some wrap around snow into the area,highly unlikely attm,however we do see some weak systems getting pushed South into our area before they wrap up with the upper level,and SFC low in the OH Valley area....
Sunday through Monday night...
Will have to keep snow alive over our far Northern areas of WI do to some light LES with winds flowing over the lake...I also have kept some snow going over far Northeastern MN as a weak system will be close to this area..Other than that have went with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies across the remainder of the FA....
Tuesday through Wednesday night...
Main problems creep up big time in this time frame...
Computer models showing a 1000 MB low pressure over Northern Alberta Canada on Monday...This low is forecasted to move almost do East by 12z Tuesday,and deepen to around 992..By 12z Wednesday we find the low sitting just North of the FA in Southern Canada...This low pressure will drag a cold front into and through the area....Tuesday SFC temps would show mainly snow across the area,However at the 925 MB height we see a warm push of air 0c..This will aid in the production of a wintry mix across much of the FA..Sleet/freezing rain/snow....In our Central and Southern zones we may only find rain and snow...This could just be all rain by afternoon,before mixing and changing to all snow Tuesday night..Will keep the wintry mix going in the Northern areas of MN,and WI until the cold front pushes through these areas.Pressure gradients increases as this system pulls away from the area..So Wednesday late afternoon and maybe into Thursday winds could also become a problem....Should see all snow on Wednesday into Wednesday night...Depending on how fast this system moves through and how much moisture it can retain or tap..This could be our best shot at seeing some accumulations snows through out the FA...This will have to watched through the weekend....I won't even take a stab at how much snow might fall,as there are to many uncertainness with the models as of right now...One thing is common on the models is colder air will pour into the area for the remainder of the work week..
Longer term(Dec 7 through Dec 15)
Still looks like no big snow storms through this time frame as the main Southern jet remains to the South...Keeping all of the storms to our South and East...Thanks to the same old pesky Northwest flow that has been camping here since October..We will have a shot at some snow through out this time frame...As systems move down into the area from the Northwest...
So to sum it all up below norms in the temps and precip dept.

Venus and Jupiter pictures

Venus and Jupiter have been shinning in the Southwestern sky for the past week or so..This show will only ger better has we head into Dec...Here are some pictures I took this evening/tonight..

Severe Thunderstorm days to effect Barron County

Severe thunderstorms days for Barron County,WI.
These severe thunderstorms reports are from the following...Myself,and my chase team..As there where days when severe storms hit the County while I was at work...Or I was out of the area storm chasing...
Barron County had 6 severe thunderstorms that were reported..
First one happened on 05/28/08
The Southern parts of Barron County had a HP supercell roll through...This was tornado warned..However I did not see any funnels or tornadoes..This storm did produce straight line wind damage to Prairie Farm and into Dallas and points South of said line....Lots trees were downed along with a barn and a shed....A trailer camper was over turned ..Some houses did have roof damage from trees on top of them...Not only was damaging winds a factor,this storm also produce hail up to the .075 in size,also very heavy rainfall from this cell....
The second severe thunderstorm day came on 06/08/08
First off we need to talk about a wind shift line that caused many reports of funnels clouds in the late afternoon...I was unlucky enough to see one of these funnels...However what I did see was lots of scud clouds being sucked up into the base of these LP storms...So I sure some of this activity was reported as funnel clouds..One spotter was able to get pictures of the funnel,along with other folks..I was able to see some of the pictures and did confirm it was a funnel cloud....Shortly after this wind shift line moved out of Barron County..More storms where forming on the Southwest side of the County, in the early evening hours... These storms raced Northeast to effect a good deal of the area,These storms did produce hail up to the size of .088...
The next round of severe thunderstorms didn't come until 07/19/08
The main areas that were effected was the Southern parts of Barron County....Damaging winds were the main factor with this cell.Winds up to 55 KNTS..Along with some small hail,and heavy rainfall..
Than on 07/28/08. More severe thunderstorm rolled through the County...
These storms were mainly hailers...Producing hail up to .088...
On 08/03/08 one of the worst storms to effect Northern parts of Barron County...
A line of severe thunderstorm smashed into Northern Barron County in the late afternoon...This storm became stronger after it move East of Cumberland about 4 to 5 miles..This storm downed lots of trees and power lines..Most of the damage was along HWY 48 and points to the North....There was some damage South of this line...A few tress downed and one roof on a house destroyed about one mile South of Rice Lake..Some people were trying to tell it was a tornado,however they never saw it...I would not be shocked if there were some gustnadoes here and there...However what I saw all lined up to be straight line winds,along with some down burst winds,that did flatten part of a corn field not to far from my place...
Last but not least, a severe thunderstorm moved through the Northern parts of Barron County on 09/26/08.
This storm moved through around 10 pm or so..The main factor with this storm was damaging winds,that did down a few trees.
Again this report is from what I or my chase team has saw...They may have been some storms we missed...Or not.....
As far as the total thunderstorm days for Barron County...From April through Nov...
April saw 3 thunderstorm days some with thundersnow....
May also saw 3 thunderstorm days...
June saw 13 thunderstorm days...
July saw 5 thunderstorm days..
August saw 6 thunderstorm days...
September saw 5 thunderstorm days...
October saw.1 thunderstorm days...
Nov..So far this month we saw one thunderstorm day...With the month just about gone I think it will be save to say that will be it...
So the total as of right now stands at 37 thunderstorms days....

Forecast and some interseting info from Polk County,WI

Forecast headaches...Light wintry mix,light snow,and last but surely not least temps....
Current Conditions...
Temps starting rather warm this morning,from the upper 20s to lower 30s...Looking at the SFC OBS we find no reports of wintry precip,however the radar is showing some light precip in far Northern ST.Louis County along with Hubbard,and Wadena Counties....Winds have been rather gusty through the over night hours...This morning I see winds are still in the 5 to 10 MPH range with a few higher gusts.....
SFC Analysis....
1034 MB high pressure over WV has help pump warmer air into the area over night..We find a cold front reaching from 1000 MB low pressure over the Northern parts of Saskatchewan Canada,down to a 1013 MB low pressure over Eastern WY..Mean while there is yet another low pressure over Southeast NE the reading on this low is around 1022 MB...
Today through Tuesday...
Cold front is forecasted to move into the Eastern Dakotas by 12z.Then into Central parts of our FA by 18 Z today..As this does the low pressure over NE is forecasted to move East into IA around 00z Monday...By 06z Monday said low is forecasted to move into Northeast IA/Northwest IL...Said cold front and low pressure will keep the chances of snow alive...For the most part little or no accumulations are forecasted...However am going to have to watch my far Southern zones of WI as the low is forecasted to deepen later tonight...This area may see some light accumulations...Best guess would say less that an inch to be on the safe side...Another cold front moves into far Northern MN by 12Z Monday and appears to wash out..However Low pressure over Eastern MI shall spin a trof through parts of my far Northern WI zones..So here I have elected to keep light snow/flurries alive in said area......I do have mostly cloudy skies in the forecast,however they may be a shot at some sun in my Southern zones of MN,and WI...If this doe come into play we could see mixing down from the 925 to 850 MB in return this would be I will need to bump temps up even more in these areas..Will watch it through the morning and adjust temp as needed....
The rest of the short week into the long Thanksgiving holiday...
High pressure will control our weather through this time frame and right through the upcoming weekend...Temps will start off below norms and shoot to above norms...Temps will remain rather warm...Temps shouldn't get to out of hand as the main flow become blocked during this time frame.Still middle to upper 30s look good..Sure would not be shocked to see some lower 40s on Thanksgiving day....So dry and quiet weather on the docket....
Longer term....( DEC 1 through DEC 9)
Long range models still talking about colder air returning to the FA..If this does indeed happen it cold be the coldest air thus far this season.850 MB temps start off at -8c and drop to -20 through much of this week...By 00z 12/06 850 MB temps dive to around -24c..Some warming noted by 12z 12/07 when 850 temps reach for -4 or so...Before cooling back off to around -8c to -16C for the rest of the time frame...As far as precip goes....Still no big storm systems in the foreseeable future...Nevertheless we still see on the long range models some clipper like systems to move into the area during this time frame...Trying to nail down what days/nights this would happen is out of the question this far out...
Severe thunderstorms days in Polk County,WI
From a friend of mine in Polk County,WI...Check out Derek's blog for the info...The info is from what he saw...So with that said there may have been other severe thunderstorms that has effected Polk County that didn't effect his area,nevertheless still cool info from his area....Derek did give me an idea after I read his post...I will be posting about severe thunderstorms that effected Barron County...These reports will be what I have seen or what my chase team/reporters have reported to me....Hope to have that out sometime today....

The forecast diss.

Forecast problems...Light snow/flurries than wintry mix than light snow/flurries...Temps...
Current Conditions....
Most of our MN and WI stations reporting clear to party cloudy skies this morning....Some of our far Southern areas of MN,WI showing cloudy skies...Satellite is showing this well....Radar is showing an area of light snow moving into Western WI ..Temps at this hour range from the lower single digits to the middle teens...Colder readings found in the Northern part of MN....
Today through tonight....
Have decided to add in some light snow/flurries to our far Southern FA this morning do to radar trends.Not looking for any accumulations...I did run with partly cloudy skies for the rest of the FA..I do agree with the models and their RH output....1012 MB low pressure/shortwave now over SD is forecasted to move southeast and dissipates...This shall push the light snow/flurries into parts of our Southern areas early this morning....Tonight cold front starts to push towards the area...Will keep with the previous forecast of a wintry mix starting later tonight..SFC temps will be cold enough for snow,however the upper level temps do show signs of a wintry mix as WAA kicks in upstairs..
Sunday through Monday...
Will start the day with a wintry mix then change it over to light snow/flurries by mid to late morning as low pressure moves East up in Canada,said low is forecasted to drag a cold front through the area..Moisture is rather limited so not forecasting any accumulations ATTM...Winds become more Westerly at the SFC so will keep temps about the same as the over night shift had them...
Monday night through Monday night...
Upper level low pressure is forecasted to come on stage late Monday night and work it's way through the area on Monday...Will keep the snow chance alive in most areas,here again not excepting much snow from this system...We will have to watch for the possibility of LES on Monday as cold Northwest flows over the warm waters of Lake Superior..ATTM is does not look like the best set up as we have seen with the last few systems over the past week...
Tuesday through Thanksgiving...
1027 MB high pressure builds into the area and sets up camp over the FA..High builds to around 1032 as it settles in on Tuesday afternoon and night....Temps during this time from shall reach into the 30s I would not be shocked to see some lower 40s reported in our far Southern areas of MN...So a warm dry week ahead for us...
Looking into the longer term...(Nov 30 th through Dec8 th)
The long range models mainly GFS Showing a big cool down for the first part of DEC...H8 Temps drop to a range of -16 to -20 .As the pesky Northwest flow regains it's hold on the area once again..This remains to been seen.. As we keep in the Northwest flow no big snow storms in the foreseeable forecast....
Ice is forming on area lakes...
The ice may not be safe just yet...With warmer temps forecasted for much of next week..If one tries to go ice fishing use caution...I would highly recommend everyone to stay off the ice...Some reports of 1 to 2 inches of ice have been coming in....Make sure to tell your kids to stay clear from the new formed ice on pounds and lakes.......
Also deer hunting as starting in WI today...Hunters make sure you know what you are shooting at...Also do not shoot across road ways or towards houses and cabins...Have a safe hunting season..Good luck at getting that big buck!

Forecast/no big snowstorms in sight.

Forecast today is a cut and dry one,with no problems....Temps become a little bit of a problem through the work week...
Current Conditions...
Looking at the SFC OBS we find mainly cloudy skies through out the entire FA...Some light snow/flurries are also showing up at this hour in the SFC reports...Radar is showing light snow through a good part of the forecast area,some of this still not reaching the ground...Temps are for the most part in the lower 20s across much of my MN FA while in my WI zones temps are ranging from 21 here at office to the upper 20s...Temp here at the office may be wrong,we will be looking into this when it gets light outside to see if there is a problem....
SFC Analysis...
1012 MB low pressure in far Southeast ND/Western MN is forecasted to move Southeast today and tonight ...Meanwhile on Monday we find a trof of low swinging South out of Canada...Monday night into Tuesday we see a 1035 MB high pressure build Southeast into the FA...
Today through Monday....
Said low above will give the FA a good shot at some light snow/flurries today and tonight....Some areas could see a dusting to as much as an inch or so...Will all depend on where the heavier snow band sets up..Right now seems like Northwestern WI has the best shot at picking up and inch while most other areas see a dusting to around 1/2 or so....LES will become the big player tonight through Monday....The NWS has issued a lake effect snow watch for Ashland,and Iron Counties of WI...The best area to pick up 6 plus inches of snow,shall be found from the Hurley to the Mellen areas...Delta-t and very good wind component off the lake shall set the stage for some good snowfall reports from said areas...Will hang on to light snow/flurries across most of the FA as a trof drops South/Southeast...Still LES in the above said areas,however this should becoming to an end as winds back towards the Northwest by Monday evening.....
Tuesday through Thursday...
Have kept most of the FA dry on Tuesday/Tuesday night...However a Clipper/shortwave should bring some light snow across my far Northern zones of MN....This may brush far Northwestern WI....As of right now GFS has this clipper/shortwave moving more to the east..So if that is the case this would keep the snows in far Northern MN..Large Arctic 1035 building to around 1040 MB high pressure will take hold of the area Wednesday through the rest of the work week into the upcoming weekend...This Arctic blast will insure most of the FA the coldest readings thus far this late fall....Temps in the single digits to around the lower teens look good...I still would not be shocked to see some below 0 readings in our far Northern areas of MN,along with our colder spots through out the rest of FA...once again no big snow storms in the foreseeable furture....

Roller coaster ride of a forecast.

Forecast problems,temps, light snow/flurries..
Current Conditions....
Temps at this 4 am hour are about the same as the midnight hour do to the cloud cover that has been hanging around...Temps ranging from the upper 20s to the lower 30s....A few middle 30s still showing up on the SFC OBS over in our WI Southeastern zones...Radar showing an area of light snow/flurries across much of the FA at this hour...Some of it may not be reaching the ground as some stations are reporting mostly cloudy skies...The light snow/flurries is moving Southeast...Satellite showing mostly cloudy skies across the FA,some breaks noted way out in Western MN,however more clouds ready to over take this area...
SFC Analysis....
This morning's weather map we find a cold front now entering Southeast WI.Cold air was slow to drain in behind this frontal boundary as proven in the morning SFC OBS....We see a 1002 MB low pressure over Southeast IN....We find a ridge of high pressure over the Rockies...All these features will ensure us of North/Northwest winds along with cool temps through the weekend.
Today through Monday...
I do have temps warmer than model guidance temps for today..With the warm start we did not reach the lows that were forecasted...However with the CAA temps may slowly fall today... Some moisture in the lower levels along with the CAA this may wring out some flurries from time to time,so will keep flurries alive in the forecast for today...Will keep snows going in the LES belt in WI Ashland,and Iron Counties...The NWS does have a Lake effect snow advisory for this area until 6 PM tonight..The NWS is calling for a total of 3 to 7 inches of snow for said areas..I would have to agree...
Tonight through Sunday night..
A 1010 MB low pressure is forecasted to dive into the are out of Canada..Not a very impress of system,nevertheless it should have enough moisture to work with to produce some light snow through out the FA...Not confident enough to add accumulations,will update forecast for this if needed after the new computer runs are in today..
Tuesday through Wednesday...
Northwest flow will keep us cool through this period...However with clipper like systems move South into the area we will see some WAA from time to time,than temps cool back off..So a roller coaster ride...Off and on light snow/flurries will also dot the forecast period.....
Thursday through Friday....
High pressure builds into the area this is going to set the stage for what appears to be the coldest air of the season thus far....Lows by Thursday morning could be on either side of 0 in our Northern areas of MN,with highs barley reaching the low 20s...In our Central and Southern zones lows should be in the upper single digits to lower teens...With highs in the lower 20s
Still no big snow storms in the foreseeable future...

Local weather observers needed

A call for local weather observers through out my forecast area...Yes this will include my MN and WI forecast area,since I seem to use the my forecast area for the firm I forecast for..Along with my blog forecast area.....This is something I would like to try.The reports will be used mainly on my blog,However I may also use your reports on the on my firm's local forecast area....The reports I'm looking for are as follows..For the winter months....Highest wind gusts along with time of occurrence..Snowfall reports...1/'2 inch or more no less though...Total snow storm reports....Freezing rain reports 1/16 of inch or more no less..Thunder snow reports, the time it happened no estimated times allowed on this report...If don't know please don't report it...Looking for the coldest temps like below -20 or colder,wind-chills of -20 or colder...Total snowfall for the following months..Nov,Dec,Jan,Feb,Mar,and April....Also comments on blowing a drifting snows...The depth of snow drifts....Along with any power outages and damage that may have happen in and around your area...No reports from people you know you have to see it before I use it...Or tell me where the damage is and I will run out and see it for myself if you can't....
Summer reports are as follows...Looking for the highest temps,100 plus..Dewpoint temps of 70 plus..
Again the highest wind gusts,see above for the info!....Severe thunderstorms...Here is what I'm looking for...Wind of and or gusts of 58 MPH no less!...And it must be measured not estimated! Damage that you have had or seen...Not looking for leaves blowing off of trees or twigs..Looking for 2 plus inches live branches or tress that were blowing down...Or if leaves are stripped from tress do to large hail...
Hail reports I'm looking for...3/4 inch or bigger..I don't care about pea size hail unless it accumulates to an 1/2 or more on the ground..I'm not looking for wall clouds reports as I have seen way to many report scud,roll clouds and shelf clouds as wall clouds....Heavy rain fall 1/2 inch or more..Funnel clouds and tornadoes...You must have seen them your self!!..Also monthly rainfall reports....
People I'm looking for shall be trained SKYWARN SPOTTERS,or STORM CHASERS that I know...
For more info you can email me...One can find my email on my chase site.....No there is no pay for doing this!!

Your local forecast

A rather peaceful week shaping up for the Northwood's..No big headaches,that is until the Thursday through the weekend time frame...
Current Conditions....
Temps at this hour show once again a wide range...Upper teens in our Western FA of MN to the middle to upper 20s across the rest of MN,and WI FA...Radar showing some areas of light snow/flurries...Winds still gusty out in our MN FA..The highest gust I see so far is in Fosston SFC OBS showing 23 MPH gust there..With a wind-chill of 8 above...What is interesting is wind-chills are ranging from 3 above to around 18...In WI winds have been gusting up to 20 MPH and wind-chills in the teens to lower 20s.So a brisk morning out there.Winds here at the office have slacked off for the time being..Down to around 5 MPH attm...
Today...
SFC Analyses
991 MB low pressure that has been camped out over the area for the several days has now pushed into Canada on the Southern tip of Hudson bay...However still some weak disturbances pin wheeling around said low has kept off and on light snow/flurries going through the over night hours..This will be the trend for today.However I left out flurries in the forecast,except in my far Northern WI zones..This area will also have lake induced light snows...The rest of the forecast area still may see some off and on flurries today...Pressure gradient should slowly lighten up today..Still winds into this afternoon will still brisk..Could see some areas reporting gusts up to 20 MPH perhaps 25 MPH..Mainly in my Northern FA of MN...
Tonight....
I have decided to run with partly cloudy skies,though some models are holding onto the clouds..Thinking is we shall see enough breaks to warrant partly cloudy wording..Will hold onto some snow wording and cloudy wording in my far Northern FA of WI as the LES machine slowly shuts down and winds back to the Northwest/West..This will shunt the lake moisture out of the WI snow belt area..
Monday through Wednesday....
1025 MB ridge of high pressure builds into the area...This time frame looks rather dull,with warming temps...Though some of the lows will be able to drop into the middle teens Monday and Tuesday night...
Wednesday night into the upcoming weekend....
This time frame will be yet another tricky one..Lets try to nail some of it down...
ECWMF and GFS models not agreeing on this next storm system to impact the area....GFS drives a 999 MB from the Western Dakotas down to Southern IA before moving it Northeast into Northeast IL on Friday By Friday the low pressure deepens to around 991 MBS..GFS forecasts the low to move into the Western part of MI,and still deepens the low more...Down to around 907 MBS...Pressure gradient become tight with this low and High way out West..So per GFS winds will also be a problem..Also precip is going to be a problem...GFS shows much of the FA in the precip shield for a few days...Temps at all levels still warm enough for rain on Thursday...Rain should mix with snow Thursday night,and Change over to all snow Friday..and last through much of the weekend...So if GFS is right we could be dealing a snow storm over much of our FA...However this is not writing in stone,far from it...Looking at the ECMWF model this model keep the low well North in Canada..Still drives cold air into the area with snow..Still windy conditions...Not as strong as GFS...We will wait to see if both models can come with one solution and which model will win the battle..Either way looks like a wet,cold and windy weekend coming up...We will keep an eye on this all week...

Forecast

Pesky low pressure still close enough to keep snow chances alive,Shortwave also dropping through MN aiding to keep snow going...Temps slowly falling from where they are currently...Winds also become gusty today...Note from last night...Areas of light to sometimes mod snows feel here at the Rice Lake forecast office..Was enough to whiten up the ground and I picked up almost a 1/4 inch of snow on my truck...This was around my midnight shift...
Current Conditions...
Temps have wide range this morning..We find the upper 20s out in our far Western MN FA to the middle 30s to close to 40 through our WI FA.....Radar is showing a large area of light snow..Some of this may still be mixed with rain,mainly over our WI area...The snow and snow rain mix is pushing South/Southwest...Some of the snow over our far Northern WI may be lake induced snows,as moisture streaming off the lake...Most still symphonic snow...
Today through Sunday..
Upper level low over Southeastern WI is forecasted to push Northeast into MI and into Canada through the time frame.As it does moisture being wrapped around will have us keep snow in the forecast..Also a shortwave dropping Southeast out of Canada this morning will interact with wrap around moisture.See no reason to pull snow from the forecast...This early morning temps still warm enough over our WI zones to keep the rain/snow mix alive..Cold air will rush into the this part of the FA to change the mix to all snow by 9 or 10 AM....I have just light snow wording in the forecast....Now most areas of MN and WI will not see any or very little snow accumulations...Around one inch is forecasted for my far Northern WI zones.Could see 2 to 6 inches in my snow belts of Ashland,and Iron Counties of WI..We have for the most part reached our highs for today...As colder air moves in temps will be on the fall through out the day....
Sunday night into Monday....
Have kept clouds in area of WI and parts of MN as a few shortwaves will push through the area...Small snow chances are possible..Though not much moisture for these weak systems to work with...
Monday night through Thursday..
High pressure builds into the area.Setting the stage for a rather peaceful work week...Also temps will be warming through this time frame, still below avg.......Next system is forecasted for Thursday night/Friday's time frame...Rain/snow possible once again...Looking at the upcoming weekend..Strong cold front is forecasted to bring in much colder air to the FA...If long range models hold onto to this and short range models pick up on this as we get closer to time frame,we could be dealing with the coldest air thus far this season...We shall see on that one....

Kind of a hard forecast this go around....

Showers this morning,than very warm air followed by a big cool down later this week...Then snow chances by weeks end..Lots to hash out so let get going with it....
Current Conditions...
Temps this morning starting off about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.Thanks to the cloud cover that moved in over night and Southerly winds....Satellite showing Clouds starting to clear out rather fast this morning as a shortwave moves out of the area...Radar still showing some scatted showers over the following Counties of MN...St. Louis,Lake,and Cook...In WI the showers are found in the following Counties....Ashland,Bay Field,Douglas,Iron,Sawyer,Washburn,and Price...The scatted showers were moving East Northeast and Should clear these areas well before noon today...

SFC Analysis...
We see a shortwave moving through the area this morning...A warm front Just South of the FA is forecasted to lift North...Meanwhile a 1080 MB low pressure will works it way Northeast into Northwest ND around 12z Monday This low is forecasted to move up into Canada as it does it will drag a cold front/trof through the area by 12z Tuesday...
Today...
Scatted showers this morning should be ending from the is mid morning South and by later afternoon North..Skies should become partly cloudy in our Southern and Central areas...Temps for today the middle to upper 50s seem plausible...
Tonight through Monday...
Quit weather and very warm for this time of year...Temps should have no problem reaching the middle to upper 60s across much of the FA...I would not be shocked to see some station reporting a few low 70s across our Southern into our Central zones....
Monday night through Wednesday Night...
This time frame is starting to look rather interesting..The cold front will be pushing back North as a warn Front once again...This will be the focal point for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday...Very warm air still flowing into the area along with dewpoints increasing to around 50 degrees...Upper level wind rather strong...One would think this would be a set up for severe thunderstorms.However with the clouds forecasted the chance is rather low,however is breaks do happen in the cloud cover we could be dealing with some severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon..We will have to watch this very close as strong thunderstorms do seem possible and some could get out of hand..If severe thunderstorms were to form the main threat would be large hail and damaging straight line winds.As of right now to many things still need to come into play..So I'm not over thrilled about severe thunderstorms right now...Though feel I should say something about the chances,although small chances...Again we will watch this closely....
Thursday through Friday...
Forecast gets even harder through this time frame....Models still don't want to agree on one solution....GFS has a 995 MB of low pressure over Eastern CO....GFS forecasts this low to push into NE and deepen it to around 998 MBS by 006 Thursday by 1200 Thursday GFS has the low right over head of the Twin Cities area and deepens it to around 994 MBS by 000 Friday low is just North of Duluth..By 1200 Friday said low is forecasted to be far Northeast MN and GFS has this system deeper ,around 990 MBS....Now the ECMWF has this low pressure moving slower than GFS and also not as deep,also keep the track a little more Westwards from GFS track.....What does this all mean...Well back to the GFS model...GFS would have the colder air moving into the area sooner and drive the change over to all snow some time Thursday night...While ECMWF does not drive to cold air into the area until later Friday morning or afternoon...So the rain would be slow to change over to snow on Friday...So we will have to keep our eye on this system..We will have a better handle on this as we get closer to this time frame.....
One thing the models do agree on temps will be getting colder...This cold air looks like its going to hang around for some time to come...Also looks like a shot of off and on snow form systems diving out of the Northwest next week...Could winter be here after this warm week? We shall find out soon enough.....

My Forecast

Warm weather will remain with us through the weekend and through the middle part of the upcoming work week...Then a big cool down...Rain than snow...By weeks end
Current Conditions...
Temps at this hour are ranging from the lower 20s to the lower 30s across the entire forecast area...
Winds are rather light with clear to partly cloudy skies per satellite view and SFC OBS....This has lead to some scattered areas of fog in low areas...Not that big of a deal though...
SFC Analysis...
Looking at the SFC charts we find a 1025 MB low pressure over Central IA along a cold front that reaches from Maine to said low...We also find a large 1025 MB high pressure just to our North in Canada...Meanwhile there is a strong 980 MB low pressure spinning of the Northwest Pacific Coast..What does this all spell out ? Lets find out, shall we?
Today....
Temps should be a degree or two cooler today than yesterday with high pressure up to our North,along with a few high clouds drifting in from time to time...Still rather warm for Nov....Should be a great day to get out and put the finishing touches on any yard work that remains...
Tonight through Sunday night....
WAA kicks in as a warm frontal boundary moves towards the FA...Will keep the chance of showers in the forecast tonight and tomorrow, though not really thrilled about,models do show it's the way to run..So I did for now...Sunday night warm frontal boundary move into and through much of the FA this will ensure us of a warm night and set Monday and Tuesday up for warmer temps...
Monday through Tuesday...
Monday we find our self's basking under warm partly cloudy skies...I have temps in the 50s to middle 60s through out the FA...I may have to bump them up in our Southern zones to the upper 60s to lower 70s...Shortwave/weaken cold front moves into the area Monday night into Tuesday this will set the stage for showers Monday night and Tuesday....Thinking right now is I may be able to pull showers out of the forecast,will let ride for now,and see a few more computer runs to make that call...Wednesday I did add thunderstorms to the forecast as more instability and lift move into the area...No severe thunderstorms are forecasted with this system....
Thursday through Friday....
This time frame is oh the hard side to pin down,as models have some disagreement going on..Will use GFS model for this forecast right now as it seems to have a better handle on things....Low pressure is forecasted to move out of CO towards the Northeast Towards Central MN by Thursday..By Friday said low pressure should be over the UP of MI....This shall give us a wet Thursday and Thursday night....What is hard to nail down is, will the rain change over to snow for Thursday night ?...Some of the model are pointing in that direction,however some aren't..Friday... if the rain has not changed over to snow it shall on Friday...We shall have a better handle on this as we get closer to this time frame...One thing that models are a little closer on agreement, is temps will be getting colder by weeks end...Looks like highs by Friday should be in the 30s