Sunday, November 23, 2008

Forecast and some interseting info from Polk County,WI

Forecast headaches...Light wintry mix,light snow,and last but surely not least temps....
Current Conditions...
Temps starting rather warm this morning,from the upper 20s to lower 30s...Looking at the SFC OBS we find no reports of wintry precip,however the radar is showing some light precip in far Northern ST.Louis County along with Hubbard,and Wadena Counties....Winds have been rather gusty through the over night hours...This morning I see winds are still in the 5 to 10 MPH range with a few higher gusts.....
SFC Analysis....
1034 MB high pressure over WV has help pump warmer air into the area over night..We find a cold front reaching from 1000 MB low pressure over the Northern parts of Saskatchewan Canada,down to a 1013 MB low pressure over Eastern WY..Mean while there is yet another low pressure over Southeast NE the reading on this low is around 1022 MB...
Today through Tuesday...
Cold front is forecasted to move into the Eastern Dakotas by 12z.Then into Central parts of our FA by 18 Z today..As this does the low pressure over NE is forecasted to move East into IA around 00z Monday...By 06z Monday said low is forecasted to move into Northeast IA/Northwest IL...Said cold front and low pressure will keep the chances of snow alive...For the most part little or no accumulations are forecasted...However am going to have to watch my far Southern zones of WI as the low is forecasted to deepen later tonight...This area may see some light accumulations...Best guess would say less that an inch to be on the safe side...Another cold front moves into far Northern MN by 12Z Monday and appears to wash out..However Low pressure over Eastern MI shall spin a trof through parts of my far Northern WI zones..So here I have elected to keep light snow/flurries alive in said area......I do have mostly cloudy skies in the forecast,however they may be a shot at some sun in my Southern zones of MN,and WI...If this doe come into play we could see mixing down from the 925 to 850 MB in return this would be I will need to bump temps up even more in these areas..Will watch it through the morning and adjust temp as needed....
The rest of the short week into the long Thanksgiving holiday...
High pressure will control our weather through this time frame and right through the upcoming weekend...Temps will start off below norms and shoot to above norms...Temps will remain rather warm...Temps shouldn't get to out of hand as the main flow become blocked during this time frame.Still middle to upper 30s look good..Sure would not be shocked to see some lower 40s on Thanksgiving day....So dry and quiet weather on the docket....
Longer term....( DEC 1 through DEC 9)
Long range models still talking about colder air returning to the FA..If this does indeed happen it cold be the coldest air thus far this season.850 MB temps start off at -8c and drop to -20 through much of this week...By 00z 12/06 850 MB temps dive to around -24c..Some warming noted by 12z 12/07 when 850 temps reach for -4 or so...Before cooling back off to around -8c to -16C for the rest of the time frame...As far as precip goes....Still no big storm systems in the foreseeable future...Nevertheless we still see on the long range models some clipper like systems to move into the area during this time frame...Trying to nail down what days/nights this would happen is out of the question this far out...
Severe thunderstorms days in Polk County,WI
From a friend of mine in Polk County,WI...Check out Derek's blog for the info...The info is from what he saw...So with that said there may have been other severe thunderstorms that has effected Polk County that didn't effect his area,nevertheless still cool info from his area....Derek did give me an idea after I read his post...I will be posting about severe thunderstorms that effected Barron County...These reports will be what I have seen or what my chase team/reporters have reported to me....Hope to have that out sometime today....