Sunday, November 9, 2008

Your local forecast

A rather peaceful week shaping up for the Northwood's..No big headaches,that is until the Thursday through the weekend time frame...
Current Conditions....
Temps at this hour show once again a wide range...Upper teens in our Western FA of MN to the middle to upper 20s across the rest of MN,and WI FA...Radar showing some areas of light snow/flurries...Winds still gusty out in our MN FA..The highest gust I see so far is in Fosston SFC OBS showing 23 MPH gust there..With a wind-chill of 8 above...What is interesting is wind-chills are ranging from 3 above to around 18...In WI winds have been gusting up to 20 MPH and wind-chills in the teens to lower 20s.So a brisk morning out there.Winds here at the office have slacked off for the time being..Down to around 5 MPH attm...
Today...
SFC Analyses
991 MB low pressure that has been camped out over the area for the several days has now pushed into Canada on the Southern tip of Hudson bay...However still some weak disturbances pin wheeling around said low has kept off and on light snow/flurries going through the over night hours..This will be the trend for today.However I left out flurries in the forecast,except in my far Northern WI zones..This area will also have lake induced light snows...The rest of the forecast area still may see some off and on flurries today...Pressure gradient should slowly lighten up today..Still winds into this afternoon will still brisk..Could see some areas reporting gusts up to 20 MPH perhaps 25 MPH..Mainly in my Northern FA of MN...
Tonight....
I have decided to run with partly cloudy skies,though some models are holding onto the clouds..Thinking is we shall see enough breaks to warrant partly cloudy wording..Will hold onto some snow wording and cloudy wording in my far Northern FA of WI as the LES machine slowly shuts down and winds back to the Northwest/West..This will shunt the lake moisture out of the WI snow belt area..
Monday through Wednesday....
1025 MB ridge of high pressure builds into the area...This time frame looks rather dull,with warming temps...Though some of the lows will be able to drop into the middle teens Monday and Tuesday night...
Wednesday night into the upcoming weekend....

This time frame will be yet another tricky one..Lets try to nail some of it down...
ECWMF and GFS models not agreeing on this next storm system to impact the area....GFS drives a 999 MB from the Western Dakotas down to Southern IA before moving it Northeast into Northeast IL on Friday By Friday the low pressure deepens to around 991 MBS..GFS forecasts the low to move into the Western part of MI,and still deepens the low more...Down to around 907 MBS...Pressure gradient become tight with this low and High way out West..So per GFS winds will also be a problem..Also precip is going to be a problem...GFS shows much of the FA in the precip shield for a few days...Temps at all levels still warm enough for rain on Thursday...Rain should mix with snow Thursday night,and Change over to all snow Friday..and last through much of the weekend...So if GFS is right we could be dealing a snow storm over much of our FA...However this is not writing in stone,far from it...Looking at the ECMWF model this model keep the low well North in Canada..Still drives cold air into the area with snow..Still windy conditions...Not as strong as GFS...We will wait to see if both models can come with one solution and which model will win the battle..Either way looks like a wet,cold and windy weekend coming up...We will keep an eye on this all week...