Sunday, November 16, 2008

Forecast/no big snowstorms in sight.

Forecast today is a cut and dry one,with no problems....Temps become a little bit of a problem through the work week...
Current Conditions...
Looking at the SFC OBS we find mainly cloudy skies through out the entire FA...Some light snow/flurries are also showing up at this hour in the SFC reports...Radar is showing light snow through a good part of the forecast area,some of this still not reaching the ground...Temps are for the most part in the lower 20s across much of my MN FA while in my WI zones temps are ranging from 21 here at office to the upper 20s...Temp here at the office may be wrong,we will be looking into this when it gets light outside to see if there is a problem....
SFC Analysis...
1012 MB low pressure in far Southeast ND/Western MN is forecasted to move Southeast today and tonight ...Meanwhile on Monday we find a trof of low swinging South out of Canada...Monday night into Tuesday we see a 1035 MB high pressure build Southeast into the FA...
Today through Monday....
Said low above will give the FA a good shot at some light snow/flurries today and tonight....Some areas could see a dusting to as much as an inch or so...Will all depend on where the heavier snow band sets up..Right now seems like Northwestern WI has the best shot at picking up and inch while most other areas see a dusting to around 1/2 or so....LES will become the big player tonight through Monday....The NWS has issued a lake effect snow watch for Ashland,and Iron Counties of WI...The best area to pick up 6 plus inches of snow,shall be found from the Hurley to the Mellen areas...Delta-t and very good wind component off the lake shall set the stage for some good snowfall reports from said areas...Will hang on to light snow/flurries across most of the FA as a trof drops South/Southeast...Still LES in the above said areas,however this should becoming to an end as winds back towards the Northwest by Monday evening.....
Tuesday through Thursday...
Have kept most of the FA dry on Tuesday/Tuesday night...However a Clipper/shortwave should bring some light snow across my far Northern zones of MN....This may brush far Northwestern WI....As of right now GFS has this clipper/shortwave moving more to the east..So if that is the case this would keep the snows in far Northern MN..Large Arctic 1035 building to around 1040 MB high pressure will take hold of the area Wednesday through the rest of the work week into the upcoming weekend...This Arctic blast will insure most of the FA the coldest readings thus far this late fall....Temps in the single digits to around the lower teens look good...I still would not be shocked to see some below 0 readings in our far Northern areas of MN,along with our colder spots through out the rest of FA...once again no big snow storms in the foreseeable furture....