Showers this morning,than very warm air followed by a big cool down later this week...Then snow chances by weeks end..Lots to hash out so let get going with it....
Current Conditions...
Temps this morning starting off about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.Thanks to the cloud cover that moved in over night and Southerly winds....Satellite showing Clouds starting to clear out rather fast this morning as a shortwave moves out of the area...Radar still showing some scatted showers over the following Counties of MN...St. Louis,Lake,and Cook...In WI the showers are found in the following Counties....Ashland,Bay Field,Douglas,Iron,Sawyer,Washburn,and Price...The scatted showers were moving East Northeast and Should clear these areas well before noon today...
SFC Analysis...
We see a shortwave moving through the area this morning...A warm front Just South of the FA is forecasted to lift North...Meanwhile a 1080 MB low pressure will works it way Northeast into Northwest ND around 12z Monday This low is forecasted to move up into Canada as it does it will drag a cold front/trof through the area by 12z Tuesday...
Today...
Scatted showers this morning should be ending from the is mid morning South and by later afternoon North..Skies should become partly cloudy in our Southern and Central areas...Temps for today the middle to upper 50s seem plausible...
Tonight through Monday...
Quit weather and very warm for this time of year...Temps should have no problem reaching the middle to upper 60s across much of the FA...I would not be shocked to see some station reporting a few low 70s across our Southern into our Central zones....
Monday night through Wednesday Night...
This time frame is starting to look rather interesting..The cold front will be pushing back North as a warn Front once again...This will be the focal point for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday...Very warm air still flowing into the area along with dewpoints increasing to around 50 degrees...Upper level wind rather strong...One would think this would be a set up for severe thunderstorms.However with the clouds forecasted the chance is rather low,however is breaks do happen in the cloud cover we could be dealing with some severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon..We will have to watch this very close as strong thunderstorms do seem possible and some could get out of hand..If severe thunderstorms were to form the main threat would be large hail and damaging straight line winds.As of right now to many things still need to come into play..So I'm not over thrilled about severe thunderstorms right now...Though feel I should say something about the chances,although small chances...Again we will watch this closely....
Thursday through Friday...
Forecast gets even harder through this time frame....Models still don't want to agree on one solution....GFS has a 995 MB of low pressure over Eastern CO....GFS forecasts this low to push into NE and deepen it to around 998 MBS by 006 Thursday by 1200 Thursday GFS has the low right over head of the Twin Cities area and deepens it to around 994 MBS by 000 Friday low is just North of Duluth..By 1200 Friday said low is forecasted to be far Northeast MN and GFS has this system deeper ,around 990 MBS....Now the ECMWF has this low pressure moving slower than GFS and also not as deep,also keep the track a little more Westwards from GFS track.....What does this all mean...Well back to the GFS model...GFS would have the colder air moving into the area sooner and drive the change over to all snow some time Thursday night...While ECMWF does not drive to cold air into the area until later Friday morning or afternoon...So the rain would be slow to change over to snow on Friday...So we will have to keep our eye on this system..We will have a better handle on this as we get closer to this time frame.....
One thing the models do agree on temps will be getting colder...This cold air looks like its going to hang around for some time to come...Also looks like a shot of off and on snow form systems diving out of the Northwest next week...Could winter be here after this warm week? We shall find out soon enough.....
Pop Pop Heaven
4 years ago
