Forecast headaches...Short term none...Long term accumulating snows for our WI Counties Tuesday through Wednesday night...More on that later...Temps will also become a problem,along with winds...
Current Conditions....
Temps are mainly in the upper teens to lower 20s across my MN zones,meanwhile temps in my WI zones are in the middle to upper 20s at this hour....Reporting stations are coming in with cloudy skies...Radar showing a band of light snow/flurries across Barron,Burnett,Sawyer,and Washburn Counties....Looking out my office window here in Rice Lake,we have light snow falling and a dusting of snow...
SFC Analyses...
We find a strong area of low pressure in Southern IL..Pressure reading on this low is down to around 996 MBS...We see a trof reaching back into our Southern Zones from said low,along with a weak area of low pressure over far ND...
Today through Monday night...
Low pressure over IL is forecasted to move Northeast into Central IN by 18z today,meanwhile weak trof will move through our FA...By 0z Monday the low over IN will move into Northeast IN and deepen to around 989 MBS.Then push into far Northeast MI by 12z Monday...by this time most of the FA will see a break in the light snow/flurries...However in our snow belts of WI will have to keep chances of snow alive as cold air flows over Lake Superior...Really don't see any problems with attm,just light snow/flurries....
Tuesday through Wednesday night...
Here is were the major headaches start....What model to believe in...GFS still has a 992 MB over Canada moving towards the Northern area of MN...This will drag a cold front through the area around the Tuesday night/Wednesdays time frame....Now lets look at the ECMWF model....Here we see a low pressure of 996 MBS forming over KS..This model pushes the low into Southwestern WI than into Central MI....GEM seems to agree with ECWMF on this out come...Yesterday I threw out these models and went with GFS...Today I will run with ECWMF and blend GFS into it...So with that said...A good deal of our WI zones could see accumulating snow through this time frame.If and only if this models pan out.....I'm still on the edge of my seat about this change...All said models have been holding their own for the most part..Though did notice GFS was slowly coming online with the ECWMF...We shall see how this will all play out....One thing that is for sure on all the model Med and Long range is that temps will go down...Another shot of Arctic air on it's way for this time frame and through the end of the work week....Winds will be a problem with either solution....As pressure gradients increases behind the cold front...I will be updating this forecast later today...I see no other choice in this attm...
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4 years ago
