Saturday, November 22, 2008

The forecast diss.

Forecast problems...Light snow/flurries than wintry mix than light snow/flurries...Temps...
Current Conditions....
Most of our MN and WI stations reporting clear to party cloudy skies this morning....Some of our far Southern areas of MN,WI showing cloudy skies...Satellite is showing this well....Radar is showing an area of light snow moving into Western WI ..Temps at this hour range from the lower single digits to the middle teens...Colder readings found in the Northern part of MN....
Today through tonight....
Have decided to add in some light snow/flurries to our far Southern FA this morning do to radar trends.Not looking for any accumulations...I did run with partly cloudy skies for the rest of the FA..I do agree with the models and their RH output....1012 MB low pressure/shortwave now over SD is forecasted to move southeast and dissipates...This shall push the light snow/flurries into parts of our Southern areas early this morning....Tonight cold front starts to push towards the area...Will keep with the previous forecast of a wintry mix starting later tonight..SFC temps will be cold enough for snow,however the upper level temps do show signs of a wintry mix as WAA kicks in upstairs..
Sunday through Monday...
Will start the day with a wintry mix then change it over to light snow/flurries by mid to late morning as low pressure moves East up in Canada,said low is forecasted to drag a cold front through the area..Moisture is rather limited so not forecasting any accumulations ATTM...Winds become more Westerly at the SFC so will keep temps about the same as the over night shift had them...
Monday night through Monday night...
Upper level low pressure is forecasted to come on stage late Monday night and work it's way through the area on Monday...Will keep the snow chance alive in most areas,here again not excepting much snow from this system...We will have to watch for the possibility of LES on Monday as cold Northwest flows over the warm waters of Lake Superior..ATTM is does not look like the best set up as we have seen with the last few systems over the past week...
Tuesday through Thanksgiving...
1027 MB high pressure builds into the area and sets up camp over the FA..High builds to around 1032 as it settles in on Tuesday afternoon and night....Temps during this time from shall reach into the 30s I would not be shocked to see some lower 40s reported in our far Southern areas of MN...So a warm dry week ahead for us...
Looking into the longer term...(Nov 30 th through Dec8 th)
The long range models mainly GFS Showing a big cool down for the first part of DEC...H8 Temps drop to a range of -16 to -20 .As the pesky Northwest flow regains it's hold on the area once again..This remains to been seen.. As we keep in the Northwest flow no big snow storms in the foreseeable forecast....
Ice is forming on area lakes...
The ice may not be safe just yet...With warmer temps forecasted for much of next week..If one tries to go ice fishing use caution...I would highly recommend everyone to stay off the ice...Some reports of 1 to 2 inches of ice have been coming in....Make sure to tell your kids to stay clear from the new formed ice on pounds and lakes.......
Also deer hunting as starting in WI today...Hunters make sure you know what you are shooting at...Also do not shoot across road ways or towards houses and cabins...Have a safe hunting season..Good luck at getting that big buck!