Saturday, November 15, 2008

Roller coaster ride of a forecast.

Forecast problems,temps, light snow/flurries..
Current Conditions....
Temps at this 4 am hour are about the same as the midnight hour do to the cloud cover that has been hanging around...Temps ranging from the upper 20s to the lower 30s....A few middle 30s still showing up on the SFC OBS over in our WI Southeastern zones...Radar showing an area of light snow/flurries across much of the FA at this hour...Some of it may not be reaching the ground as some stations are reporting mostly cloudy skies...The light snow/flurries is moving Southeast...Satellite showing mostly cloudy skies across the FA,some breaks noted way out in Western MN,however more clouds ready to over take this area...
SFC Analysis....
This morning's weather map we find a cold front now entering Southeast WI.Cold air was slow to drain in behind this frontal boundary as proven in the morning SFC OBS....We see a 1002 MB low pressure over Southeast IN....We find a ridge of high pressure over the Rockies...All these features will ensure us of North/Northwest winds along with cool temps through the weekend.
Today through Monday...
I do have temps warmer than model guidance temps for today..With the warm start we did not reach the lows that were forecasted...However with the CAA temps may slowly fall today... Some moisture in the lower levels along with the CAA this may wring out some flurries from time to time,so will keep flurries alive in the forecast for today...Will keep snows going in the LES belt in WI Ashland,and Iron Counties...The NWS does have a Lake effect snow advisory for this area until 6 PM tonight..The NWS is calling for a total of 3 to 7 inches of snow for said areas..I would have to agree...
Tonight through Sunday night..
A 1010 MB low pressure is forecasted to dive into the are out of Canada..Not a very impress of system,nevertheless it should have enough moisture to work with to produce some light snow through out the FA...Not confident enough to add accumulations,will update forecast for this if needed after the new computer runs are in today..
Tuesday through Wednesday...
Northwest flow will keep us cool through this period...However with clipper like systems move South into the area we will see some WAA from time to time,than temps cool back off..So a roller coaster ride...Off and on light snow/flurries will also dot the forecast period.....
Thursday through Friday....
High pressure builds into the area this is going to set the stage for what appears to be the coldest air of the season thus far....Lows by Thursday morning could be on either side of 0 in our Northern areas of MN,with highs barley reaching the low 20s...In our Central and Southern zones lows should be in the upper single digits to lower teens...With highs in the lower 20s
Still no big snow storms in the foreseeable future...