just an update this morning

I really don't have time to go into a forecast attm...I we are testing a new system in the firm I forecast for...It took me forever to just work through that...I see Tim is now one of my forecasters,Welcome Tim glad to have you in my office...Email me when you get some time...Though I'm not sure how long I'm going to be around,as I plan on going up to Superior today....
On to the update..
Arctic air is camped out over head this morning....Temps are way below zero...from -single digits to as cold as the -20s...Here at my place(The Weather Center) temps have now went below -20...-20.8 in Rice Lake -18 being reported....Hayward coming in at -24 right now...Arctic air will hang around right through Monday a tad warmer on Tuesday when we inch our way to the 30° mark.....Wednesday through Friday we get into the lower to middle 30s..Enjoy while it last,models showing another Arctic blast heading this way in the longer term forecast...More on this maybe tonight, for sure tomorrow...

Tornado/severe thunderstom map for Barron County

After talking with Derek last night..I have decide to make up a map of the Barron County tornado and severe thunderstorms allies...I used the GRlevel2 radar amp so I could zoom into Barron County....
As you will see I have two areas that seem to get hit more often than the rest of County...Area one covers the Northern section of Barron County..This is the main area that sees more severe thunderstorms than the rest of the area....Seems like storms move in from Polk County and strengthen as they move into this area..This area also has the highest numbers of tornadoes as a rule.....Area number two Covers the most of the Southern areas of the Barron County,although not the greatest area,this area gets hit hard with it's share of severe thunderstorms...The tornado count here is some what lower than is counterparts....Still not sure why the central part of the County is low it appears like the storms go around the Central areas...Here is another map from the NWS it shows the tornado events from 1982 through 2004...Shows Barron County with the highest amount of tornadoes in Northwestern WI....Also what is interesting we go back in time from 1950 through 1982 Barron County still comes out on top in Northwestern WI for tornadoes...
I have been studying this since I was 10 years old trying to figure out why the Northern parts of Barron County get more severe thunderstorms than the Central,and why the Southern areas get more, although less than the Northern areas,get more than the Central areas...Also this is on the ave!

Comet Lulin

I took this picture Thursday morning @ 1:00 AM...Didn't post it do the major winter storm that was pounding the area...Now that is history here is Comet Lulin..Can you find it ?

Forecast....Storm total....8.75" here

Major winter storm has now moved out of the area...Forecast problems shall be the Arctic air now over the area,how long to keep it going,Then a slow warm up with more precip late next week...Then long term forecast could prove to be a pain...

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps in the lower single digits are common this morning..So temps just below the zero mark..Here we have a temps of -1.6...
Skies for the most part are cloudy through out the area....Temps in MN have dropped well below zero teens below to around 20 below..Skies range from partly cloudy to mostly clear in those areas....

SFC ANALYSIS....

This morning weather charts shows the fast major winter storm that slammed the area yesterday is now located over Western part of MI...Meanwhile we see a 1037 MB high pressure building into the FA from just North of ND....

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

Cold dry Arctic high pressure will build into the area this shall clear skies out this early morning,if they have not cleared out already...Winds shall be slacking off as we go through the day..Right now pressure tends.are raising about 1.5 MB/hour,by later today the raises should be only around .5 to .7 MB /hour...This will allow for winds to decrease.Temps today won't make much about 10 maybe 15 in some of the warmer areas..By 00Z Saturday we find the 1037 MB high pressure camping out over the FA...This will allow for winds to become calm under clear skies and the fresh deep snow pack temps will be allowed to fall well below zero...10 to 15 below looks to be the way to run for tonight...This weekend is shaping up to be a rather uneventful one...Under partly to mostly sunny skies temps will still remain below ave..Lows below zero and highs in the upper teens to close to 20.....

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT....

We find a weak short-wave trying to move into the area Along with WAA starting to kick in...Can't ignore it so will have to have some light snow through this time frame..Should be light..I might pull the chances of this from the forecast tomorrow...Temps Monday still remain below norms....

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....

Temps warm back up into the lower to middle 30s, as a warm ridge builds into the area...Not much more to say about this time frame.....

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY......

Here things get interesting once again....We find a 993 MB low pressure moving from MY into SD by 18Z Thru,by 00Z Friday said low moves into Northeast NE/Northwest IA by this time the pressure readings of said low are up to around 996 MBS...By 06Z Friday low is over Central MN just Northwest of the Twin Cities area...By 12Z Friday said low is forecasted to be into Central WI...Thermal temps show that the area should be warm enough for mostly rain Winter Critical thickness also confirms this rather well as the 540 line remains well out over Western MN.....850 MB temps show temps around 2C to close to 4C....
So one would think this would be a rain event,I will run with that thinking for now.....

LONGER TERM...(MAR 7 THROUGH MAR 15)

Said system pulls away from the area...May see some light snow ending this system as cooler air gets drawn Southwards....
Sort break in the action,before we find and areas of disturb weather moving in the SD for Mar 8...This system here could go either way with rain and or snow the 540 line sets up right over Western WI....850 MB temps show the area right around 0C....Meanwhile the 700 MB temps right around -9C to -10C....We may be dealing with an ice storm if this pans outs..This system will also end as light snow later in the day on Mar 8....After this system temps drop back to way below norms once again..Temps are forecasted to range from -4C to -12C...Temps do warm back close to 0C by Mar 15...There will be a chance of some off and on light snow through the period...Won't even try to time that,as this forecast is way out there in time....

Major snowstorm ending

Major snowstorm ending this evening...Radar trends have been showing the snow becoming lighter...This also matches up rather well with computer model trends,Winds have become North and ranging from 15 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 32 MPH...Temps have started their down ward trend also..Right now here at the Weather Center temps have falling to 10 degrees...
Back to the ending snow storm...The Central and Southern parts of the FA could still see one or two more inches of snow..That should be about it...Storm totals would appear to have match the earlier forecast....
We had our 2nd thunderstorm day of the year...2:00 pm we had a thunderstorm move into the area,this cause snowfall amounts to really add up in Northern Barron,and Rusk Counties..This area of thundersnow lasted from 2 PM through roughly 4 PM....This also match up well with our thundersnow forecast/map.....Most areas did see some thundersnow,however the main area set up over the above said Counties along with the Central and Southern Counties of..Burnett,Sawyer,Price,and Washburn.....What is interesting about that is this is where the highest snowfall amounts have been reported....

closing in on 6 inches of snow

I see just 2 miles South of Rice Lake only 1.5 or so inches of snow..Here at my place darn near 6 inches...Click on picture for full size.Still very heavy snow falling,with still some rumbles of thunder..

Thundersnow map

With all the computer model data streaming into the Weather Center this morning..We decide to draw up a map based on computer model's data....If this pans out this would be the second thunderstorm/thundersnow event recorded here at the Waether Center....See AFD below for how this may play the forecasted snowfall amouts..Which by the way we have decide to run with yesterday's snowfall amount map as things have not changed there..We were well aware of the chance at thundersnow,but yesterday we didn't feel it was not going to pan out,however this morning our thinking as changed on this topic,both Sam and I are now in agreement how the thundersnow....

My AFD

No long term forecast issued ATTM way to many things going on with the major winter storm heading this way....



This AFD will focus on the major winter storm to impact parts of the FA.....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Snow starting to over spread the area...No time to go into details on temps or anything to deal with the SFC OBS...

SFC ANALYSIS....

1004 MB low pressure over CO,showing up rather well on the Polar Stereographic WV image this morning...Cold front that pushed through the area yesterday/early evening hours now lying over Central IL up into the far Southeastern part of MI,Meanwhile a large area of 1038 MB Arctic high pressure sitting up over Saskatchewan Canada....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.....

!004 MB low pressure is forecasted to track from CO to Northeastern KS by 12Z today..Than into Southeastern IA before reaching the windy city of IL by around 6Z Friday....Looks like most of the FA will see a good shot of 3 to 5 inches of snow with this system,However over my far Northern areas of MN 1 to inches should be the rule...While my Central and Southern areas of MN pick up 4 to 8 inches with some higher amounts..Would not be shocked to see a few 10 inch reports...Over in WI My Southern zones have the best chance at picking up 4 to 8 inches of snow with some iso areas picking up 10 to 12 inches..Here we could see also see some thundersnow,as best left and forcing sets up...Mainly over Barron,Rusk Counties...This would also include our neighbor Polk County...As a rule this system would be really to far South to produce this amount of snow,However with support from the jet,along with where the frontogenesis and isentropic left setting up there is no way we can't deny the parts of the FA mod to heavy snow....Models showing 1 to 2 inches per hour...Lets talk about the thundersnow for a second....If this does indeed play out, which does look plausible ATTM...Snowfall amount could be much higher,if the thundersnow sets up for any amount of time could be looking at 2 to 3 inches per hour....This could very well put the snowfall totals closer to 12 to 15 inches....Main area I'm worried about would be as follows...Central to Northern Barron and Rusk Counties,with Northern areas of Polk County...Up into Southern/Central areas of Burnett,Sawyer,Price,and Washburn Counties of WI...Also would have to include pars of Pine County MN......Winds will be picking up to the 10 to 20 MPH range today this will more problems as blowing and drifting snows will be encountered......Storm system moves out tonight ending the snows...Skies should become partly Cloudy...Temps shall fall to below zero most area as Arctic high pressure builds into the area.....Models now having the Arctic air hanging around to about Wednesday,a day later than yesterday models run showed......

Forecasted snowfall amounts

The map above is for the forecasted snowfall amount of our WI FA....

We have the northern/Central parts of Barron/Rusk Counites,and a small area of Northeastern Polk County in the the red area do to a number of reasons..1 higher terrain of said Counties...2 These areas seem to get nail with more snowfall and severe thunderstorms as a rule..So with looking at the last 20 years of data complied by the Weather Center...We see no reason why not to add them areas into the heavy snowfall area...With Iso amounts up to 12 inches..The Other area we have in red will see the highest snowfall amounts,and more widespread.....

Forecast details....

Nam came around to the thinking of the ECMWF model this morning....GFS is still be the problem child like most of this winter,when it comes to storm systems...So will discard very thing it shows as far as the snowfall amounts go...

12Z ECMWF is showing a low pressure sytem over North Central CO The low is forecasted to move towards the Northeast and deepen to around 999 MBS as it pushes into Northeast IA then into far Southern WI/Far Northern IL...Meanwhile a 1036 or so MB high pressure is forecasted to build into ND....The pressure gradients between these two system will increase..Winds could reach the 20 MPH...This will lead to blowing and drifting of the snow...NAM model is still a little South and a tad weaker..Like around 1002 MBS..However not much in the way to change the forecast...Cold Arctic air pours into the area behind this system..With temps warming to around 30 by Tuesday..Models have been pushing this WAA back a day..With some hinting at pushing it back til mid week....

The NWS watches/warnings

Major winter storm on it's way for the forecast area.

Major winter storm on the way for my whole forecast area...I will have a very detailed forecast issued this evening within an hour or two after I get home from work....Will have a few maps also...Will also talk about the Arctic air ready to move into the area for the weekend,Then a warm up just like what we had this week....All of this coming up tonight....The NWS has issued a winter storm watch for the area....Tune back in later tonight for the in depth forecast from the Weather Center....I will have a friend/co forecaster with me tonight so this could be fun...

Forecast

This forecast will focus on Thursday through Friday......
Possible winter storm moving towards the area....
Looking at the ECMWF/CEP model we see a 999 MB low forming over the CO area..This low is than forecasted to head Northeast into Southern WI/far Northern IL by late Thur/early Friday...Track of said low would bring in accumulating snows to my Central and Southern areas....However at the same time ECWMF/CEP is trying to build in a 1037 MB Arctic high pressure into the Northern and Central parts of the FA from Canada....The way it has been all winter if the push of Arctic air can be in place before said low moves Northeast,this shall help keep the low well to our South per Nam model,which I will talk about in awhile....Either way pressure gradients will tighten up between the high towards our North and the low towards our South/Southeast....Looks to be a wind producing system....
Looking at the GFS model...
GFS keeps the low a tad South of ECMWF/CEP model,also has said low much weaker like around 1005 MBS or so...Also has the high stronger around 1042 MBS.....GFS does see eye to eye with ECMWF/CEP on a wind producing system....
NAM model has the low Moving toward the windy City...Both Nam and GFS does paint some light QPF for the area....Winds also show up on NAM....So one thing models do agree on this system will be a wind jammer......What models don't agree on is where the snow band is going to set up as of right now...So if I was to put my neck on the chopping block I would say the Southern areas of the FA would have the best chance at seeing accumulating snows..Point South of Eau Claire....I still have time to watch this,as models get closer to latching onto the final track of said low pressure...Will update when I feel models are in a better agreement on this possible winter storm...Temps will be falling back to below norms right through Monday.....More detailed forecast on the cold temps tonight oe tomorrow morning.....

Comet Lulin

After going through tons of random pictures I took this early morning..Bang I got comet Lulin..I really wasn't trying for it...So before work tomorrow I will get much better shots of it,that's if the skies are clear....

What do I have here?

Not sure what I got in these pictures,Whether is was the satellite debris or metors.....If someone knows please let me know...Pictures were taken about 5:15 am this morning...Looking Southwest.The streaks would be more towards the Southeast....Click on pictures for bigger size.

Forecast..still no spring

Forecast problems.....Temps up and down...Storm system for mid week,than Arctic blast for the weekend..Long term snow chances,and temps...Lets see if we can solve these problems.....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps this morning starting either side of zero,all depending on if an area was clear through out the night...Here at the office -2 right now...Those areas that have cloudy skies are holding in the middle to upper single digits....Radar showing some areas of Light snow/flurries around the South Shore,and points West...Nothing to heavy has been reported....

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning's weather map we find the low pressure that brought our Southern FA of MN,and WI any where from 1 to 4 inches of snow..This system is over Eastern MN,models have a great handle on this,lines up well with the satellite image....We also see some clouds moving into the Northern parts of our MN FA....Some flurries have been reported with this feature....Also some LES have been showing up on radar along with SFC reports.....

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.....

Clouds will keep drifting South out of Canada and should over take the areas today,I decided to run with mostly cloudy to partly cloud skies,as I do think there will be breaks here and there...May be some flurries off and on through out the day,only kept them in the Northern areas of MN,and around the South Shore of WI do to LES.....Temps today will still be rather cool with upper teens to lower 20s....Tonight we see the clouds scatter out setting the stage for another sub zero night across the Northwood's as a 1039 MB high pressure camps out over the area tonight and slowly moves out Monday afternoon..On Monday we get into a return flow,so should see temps a few degrees warmer....Clouds increase for Monday night as WAA kicks in.......
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TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.....

Things get a little interesting during this time frame....Temps do warm up into the lower 30s to middle 30s for Tuesday and Wednesday....Looks like our Southern and Central FAS could see a mix of preicp,as of now I only have that in the Southern areas of my WI area...We will be watching a 1003 low pressure move onto the Western Dakotas by 00Z Wed.....Low is forecasted to move into Central MN by 12Z Wed by 18Z Wed the low should be over the UP of MI...Early on in with this system we will be close to the Winter Critical Thickness...Through our Central, and Southern zones.....While our Northern zones should see all snow..Thermal temps through out our Central and Southern areas do show a good chance at mixed precip to start with,before changing to all snow by Wed afternoon...We will be watch another system drifting in from the West for Thur...This one should effect mainly the Central and Southern areas of MN,along with all our WI zones..We will have to watch this as it could produce some nice snowfall amounts.....

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

Large Arctic high pressure builds into the area for Fri..Models have this at 1034 or so MBS...This will ensure us another cold weekend with temps below zero for lows and highs near 20......

LONGER TERM (MONDAY MAR 2 THROUGH TUE MAR 10).....
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We start with models showing a system moving through the area..Temps will remain cold enough for light snows as the system moves along the Canada border...High pressure takes control of the weather from Wed through early Fri....At the same time we will be watching a system get going over the Northern Plains...Not excepting much with that system as it fizzles out....By 00Z Sat we find a low pressure getting it's act ready to go on stage over CO/NM..Low is forecasted to move Northeast into SE NE by 12Z Friday....Low drops into Eastern MO/Western IL by 00Z Sunday....Low is than forecasted to lift into Northeastern IL by 12Z Sunday..Low is forecasted to deepen to around 979 MBS..I think that is a little to deep...By 00Z Monday said low should be pushing into Northeastern areas of MI...Most of the heavy snow as of right looks like it will remain South and East of the area...One thing is for sure this low pressure will draw in more Arctic air into the area..We will have to watch this system as if forms,and once the mid and short term models latch on to it...

Last night's snow

Just got back in from checking my snow broads picked up 3.50 inches of snow last night/and this early morning....Picture does not really show it that good as my truck is facing into the wins and some snow has blown off of it..Just wish it would all blow off of it so I son't have to clean it off!...

I'm pushing well over 60 some inches of snow so far this winter...Will do a total at the end of month

I'm sick of winter!!!!

Interesting forecast taking shape..Mid & long term

(Used my AFD from the site I forecast for..This will be the case every Saurday and Sunday)

Forecast problems....When to end the snow today....Arctic air,slight warm-up,next system for mid week followed by more Arctic air.....Active period in mid and long term forecast...

CURRENT SFC OBS....

Light snow/flurries being reported through much of the FA...Mod to sometime heavier snows being reported in Barron,and Rusk Counties,along with Southern areas of Washburn and Southern Sawyer Counties...Radar is also showing this rather well this morning..Temps are the warmest in my WI zones....Middle to upper teens,while in my MN zones temps for the most part single digits to lower teens....A few spots reporting single digits below zero....

SFC ANALYSIS.....

Short-wave/low pressure showing up nicely on this mornings WV images over Southern MN...This system lines up right on target with most models....1031 MB High pressure building into the big sky area...Most of the snow heavier snows have been over Barron,and Rusk Counties...Where 3 to 4 inches have been reported into the office this morning....Meanwhile just light snows have been falling across the rest of the FA..With little or no accumulation...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.....

Big question remains when to end the snow across the area.....
Low pressure/inverted trof is forecasted to move into Western IL by 12 Z today than push into Southeastern WI by 18Z today....By 00Z Sunday said low should be over Western MI....Accumulating snows will be coming to end over my Southern parts of the WI FA early this morning...I did keep light snow/flurries in the forecast as the low will remain rather close to the area...I would not be surprise to see a few breaks in the clouds in parts of the FA,however that will be short lived as a weak trof follows said low..Clouds already pushing into far Northwestern MN attm....Winds should be slacking off with gust up to 20 MPH through out this time frame..However areas in Barron,and Rusk Counties could seem some areas of blowing and drifting snow.....Temps today for the most part will be falling in my WI zones,while in the MN zones temps should remain steady or move up the ladder a few degrees.....Sub zero lows on the way for the area once again tonight...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT....

1030 MB high pressure builds into the area...Meaning sub zero morning lows....Skies should become mostly sunny across much of the area...Will keep LES going in the South Shore of WI.through this time frame...Though have thought about pulling that from the forecast...Sunday night looking cold also with Arctic high pressure darn near over head along with light winds and clear skies most areas..Temps will drop back below zero again......Monday WAA tries to kick in and a return flow from the South sets up,this should bring in some what warmer temps into the FA,however I did do some trimming of the temps due to the snow cover over the Southern areas,with wind flow at the surface right of the fresh snow pack...I think models are to warm...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.....

Things still looking as interesting as they were just a few days ago,nevertheless we will need to watch not one but two storm systems that could bring in some significant precip parts of the FA...One system is forecasted to move along the Northern MN border...This may bring snow snows into the Northern/Central areas of MN along with my WI zones for Tues into Wed...The other system 1002 MB low pressure is forecasted to form in Eastern WY/Western MN late Wed...This low is forecasted to move into Southern WI by 00Z Friday...Meanwhile another area of low pressure is forecasted to form over Central WI and push into the Door County area.....If this all turns out we could be seeing a rather large area of snow through out much of the FA through this time frame...Models still not seeing eye to eye on all the details yet...So will leave this just the way it is for the time being...
Temps do warm close to or slightly above 30 for Tuesday...We will have to watch for Mixed precip at the start of this possible storm,before it chances to all snow.....Temps do take a dive downwards once again....

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

System pulls away from the area,setting the stage for more cold temps for the upcoming weekend as a 1038 MB Arctic high pressure builds into the area...Temps are forecast to be -12c to -20C through out the area....Temps do warm from -8C to around -4C by Sunday....Models hinting at another storm system showing up late Sunday......

LONG TERM FORECAST...(MAR 2 through MAR 9)

Like stated above models showing another storm system for late Sunday through Monday night...As of right now temps would appear to be cold enough for just snow..SFC,Mid,and upper temps all support this......Come Thur Mar 5 another system is possible,here again should be all snow...Sat Mar 7th models show a bigger system may start off as mixed before going to all snow...Temps start the period on the cold side,they do warm up by Friday with temps closing in on the 30s,that will be short lived as a big system pulls down cold air into the area..System should be over Western WI by 12Z Saturday...So looks like we will be in for an active period along with cold temps..
Like always this long term forecast is way out in time...Things can and do change!

Fast look at the forecast

Not much time for this forecast..Will have a more detailed for forecast early Saturday morning...
Another cold night on tap for the area with temps ranging from -3 to - 8 across the FA...Friday/Friday night we see an area of low pressure moving off to our South/South west....Light snow will be possible across much of the FA the heaver snow shall be found over my Southern FA were 1 to 4 inches of snow will be likely...My Central parts of the FA could see around an inch of snow,while my Northern areas will be lucky to see .50 of snow..Could see some LES for the South shore areas as winds will be from the North....More Arctic air on tap behind this system....Means temps going back below zero for lows through out much of the FA once again..A small warm up in temps for early next week,then some mixed precip,then a possible snowstorm Wednesday/Thursday's time frame...It could be a big one.....More on this in Saturday's forcast....More Arcitc air on it's way after said system....Winter will not give up! unlike some news media and a few other things I have read,are preaching spring on it's way....Not yet folks....Plus side daylight hours are getting longer, and the sun is getting stronger....However we still have all of March and maybe some of April to get through....Like I stated in other forecasts temps will remain below norms ,however we will see a few so called warmer days,over all temps will ave below norms!

My FA area once again

The blue shaded area on the map is the area I forecast for.The firm I forecast for also covers all of Northeastern MN,and North Central, and Parts of Central MN,all of Northwestern WI....

snowfall amounts and Lake Superior forecast

Snowfall amounts.. heaviest in Central Barron County points East,NE,and SE of said line..Where 3 to almost 4 inches have been reported into the Weather Center this early morning,while points West of Central Barron County have been coming in with around an inch..May see this area pick up another .50 maybe up to .75....Per radar trend.....While the Central Barron County and points East may pick up another inch.....So for the most part the accumulating snows are over......
Forecast for Lake Superior Thursday through Sunday.....
Points from WI point towards Siliver Bay.....(wave forecast only)
No big wave action is forecasted for the area,as winds will not be setting up right with this system or the Friday/Friday night's system....Today we should see waves around 3 to 7 feet as winds remain out of the North around 20 KNTS with gust up to 25 KNTS or so....Tonight as wind speeds decrease waves will follow...1 to 4 feet waves are forecasted.....Rest of the time frame we should see waves around 2 feet or less...Also a note the ice caves in At Apostle Islands..As of Feb 10th the ice caves are still accessible,however please call this number for the latest updates,as this time is rather old,and Superior's ice is always changing..The number is (715) 779 - 3398 ext 3......

Fast update this morning

Low pressure is being a pain in the butt,or is it the models,either way this forecast is ongoing pain....Still thinking some snow will accumulate across the FA....With the lasted data I have @ this hour....1 to 2 inches of snow across much of if not all of Burnett,Polk,and St.Croix Counties.Maybe and iso 3 inch amount..Also 1 to 3 maybe and iso 4 inch amount inches of snowfall into the Western Barron,Dunn,and Washburn Counties....Central parts of Barron,Dunn,and Washburn Counties could see 2 to 4 inches of snow,with higher amounts could be pushing up to 5 inches..Eastern parts of said Counties and points East wards could pick up 2 to 5 inches of snow...Will have a better handle on this tonight....However this is what the computer models are showing at this 5 am hour..

Fast forecast this morning

Will do this real fast this morning as my time is limited...If needed will update later this afternoon..
Snow possible for the my FA....As of right now looks to be around 1-4 inches of snow for the Western parts of the FA,Burnett,Polk,and ST.Croix Counties..Points East of said Counites could pick up 2 to 5 inches of snow....Low pressure is forecasted to move out of CO into KS than through Northern MO into Northeast IL around the CI area...Meanwhile a short-wave,and an Arctic cold front will be diving through MN into WI...The two systems are forecasted to phase over Eastern IL...This will bring in a chance of snow to the FA see above again for the snowfall amounts...This system will also be a wind jammer...So blowing and drifting snow will surely be likely...Models still not 100% what there want to do with this system as of this forecast,However the forecast above is from the lastest info I have right attm..See forecast below for long term forecast...

Orion

Last night I was out doing some astro photography..I was playing around with all kinds of settings..This picture here I really like, and as always click on the picture for full size....

More Lake Superior pictures

Here are some more pictures from Saturday...

Lake Superior pictures more tonight.

Above are some pictures I took yesterday...A friend and myself went up to Lake Superior on WI point...Was a great day under mostly sunny skies,What was really cool we got to see LES forming over the open waters and pushing onto land some miles away from where we were...The pictures show large areas of ice that have been pushed up onto the beach and about 100 yards out over the water from the waves some of the ice hill where 20 to 30 feet high! highest I have seen them is sometime...Yes we walked right out there to the close to the edge of the ice cliffs...Will say this if anyone plans on doing you should know that is very dangerous as them ice chunks could break off and you could be on a trip out to sea...Another thing one was to watch out for is voids in the ice pack,or hollow areas...You step on one of those areas you might be saying good bye to the world...I used an ice pick to guild our painstaking way out there...If anyone does not know how to listen to the ice I sure would not be going out there...The ice will talk to you and let you know what it is, it is planning on doing..If you understand you will have enough time to get to another safe area...I just can't stress this enough..I have grown up on ice,as I love to ice fish so I learned how to listen to the ice..Then when I started go up to Superior I had to learn a lot more as this is not solid ice like most people think..I'm not trying to sound like I'm bragging about what I know about Lake Superior's ice and it's ice mounds...However many years of going up there and learning everything I can about the lake...One thing I know for sure Lake Superior is not a lake you can't trust whether it be in the winter or summer...Yes we have been 20+ foot swells let me tell you it's not fun..You don't want to tempt Superior if you do she may very well clam you..You just have to remember she is the boss and will tell you when she does not want you around...
I'm really not sure why I love it up around and on the Lake...I know I do though...

Forecast

Forecast problem...Possible snow event from Monday through Wednesday than again on Friday....Temps rather simple in short and middle term periods...

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Under clear to partly cloudy skies and calm winds temps have really dropped of this morning...Well into the teens below zero over our Northern areas of MN,while single digits below zero found through out the rest of the FA..Here in Rice Lake we have a temp of -1....Most other stations coming in at or slightly above zero by a few degrees....Think temps will fall a degree or two as the sun comes up...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning we see a 1034 MB high pressure over Northern ND,Meanwhile see our next system over the far Northern plains..Then our possible trouble maker now sitting over the Northern CA Coastal area..Oh we aren't done just yet..We also see our next shot of Arctic air in the form of a cold front over the Arctic region....Let break this all down....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

Today 1034 MB high pressure is forecasted to move into Western MN by 12Z today,by 18Z we find the high sitting right over our FA...This will ensure the FA a nice peaceful day..Temps should be a little cooler than yesterday however...Tonight most of the FA will be under the influence of said high wind light winds and mostly clear skies temps will once again drop below the zero mark.....

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....

High pressure will be moving off the East/Southeast of the area..We get into a return flow,as winds back out of the South/Southwest..This will allow WAA to kick in,at the same time a trof will be pushing into the areas from the West...This will give our Northern areas the best chance of snow..Though on the light side some accumulations will be possible,mainly over our Northern MN areas Monday/Monday night....Now here is were the forecast becomes a little complicated...
Lets talk about the ECMWF model first..Looking at the 00Z run ECMWF has a low pressure of 998 MBS over Far Northern KS/far Southern NE..The low is than forecasted to move into Far Northern IL/Southern WI sometime Wednesday late afternoon into Wed night time frame,than push into MI...ECMWF has been tracking this storm system more North with each run..Going back to the 12Z run low is more South...Also this model is trying to phase in our short-wave over Northern MN, and WI into the low..If this was to play out,our Southern FA of WI could very well be dealing with a snowstorm....Lets look at the GFS the 00Z run keeps the low way to our South...Tracks the low from KS into Central IL and then into Northeastern IN..For the most part GFS has been holding onto that track for sometime now...Meanwhile NAM as come into agreement with ECMWF with the track of the low...Here were a forecaster goes crazy....GFS has not been real great this winter with winter storms,while ECMWF has been doing rather great with systems like this one....I will blend them together...Still will go with the thinking that the heavy snow will be South of the FA for now.Our far Southern FA of WI could pick up a few inches of snow,this still remains to be seen .So with that I will have no choice to push this all on to the next forecaster,as this whole thing is has not come together yet..Still many problems with the models not seeing eye to eye on this...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.....

Thursday the low pulls away from the area should be a rather nice day setting up,temps will still remain below norms...We will be watching a clipper like system moving down from Canada for Friday..This could bring the FA a shot of a couple of inches of snow..As of right now the weekend should be rather dull,may get some LES going along the South Shore of WI once again...Temps still look to remain below norms for this time frame...

LONG TERM (MONDAY FEB 23 - TUESDAY MAR 3)

Looks like a rather active period coming into play...GFS and ECMWF both agree on bringing up a low pressure from the CO area into Eastern WI around the Door County area Monday night into Tuesday night's time frame...Looks like this could bring the FA a winter storm......By Sat another system is forecasted to move into the area ,this one could bring us a mixed bad of precip as the winter critical thickness line will be close if not over the FA,May be another ice storm as the 700 MB temps would show that as of right now...Sat night into Sunday precip should be changing over to all snow as colder air works in behind this system.....Temps will start the period below norms..With a few day slightly above norms,for the most part though temps shall remain below norms...

The forecast

No big changes were needed from the inherited forecast..Forecast headache may be a possible major snowstorm for part of the areas come Tuesday into Wednesday....See below for details....Arctic air will also be a problem right through the longer term...So over all temps shall remain slightly to well below norms through this whole forecast period.Sure we may have a few "warm days" here and there,but after all is said and done the ave should be as stated above...

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Clouds still remain in parts of the FA with some areas of light snow/flurries..Other areas have cleared out nicely....Temps have fallen into the single digits to the lower teens across the FA...Radar still showing a few bands of LES across the Duluth area along with our Southern Lake shore Counties of WI...

SFC ANALYSIS....

1030 MB over Canada /ND has pushed the pesky clouds out of most of the forecast area....Low pressure taking shape over the Western UT.....

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

High pressure building into the area has allowed skies to clear through out much of the forecast area all except for our far WI zones,and parts of our far Northeastern zones of MN..CAA well under it's way so today's temps will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday,as stated above I didn't have to much to change in the ongoing forecast...Temps fall below zero for most of the FA tonight and once again Sunday night...We may have to drop the lows if our far Southern zones to below zero also...Temps through this period well below norms once again..Winds for the part should remain rather light this weekend....

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.....

Very weak trof is forecasted to move into and through the area,best chance of light snow shall be found in our Northern zones of MN,and WI and this seems to be were the better lift and moisture is setting up....Highs will a few degrees warmer however still slightly below norms....

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT....

Here is where the problem creep into the forecast..Low pressure over CO is forecasted to track Northeast into Eastern KS and deepen to around 992 MBS..Low is than forecasted to move into Central IL by Wednesday night....Meanwhile a Arctic cold front starts to push into our Northern zones of MN...Also an trof will be pushing into the area...Heavy snow could become a problem For Northern areas of MN ..The Arrowhead seems to in target for this...Meanwhile our Central and Southern zones should only see off and on light snows..We will have to watch the track of this winter storm if the models keep moving it North as they have been,this would push the Southern heavy snow band into for said areas..

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

Arctic high pressure build into the area..Will still keep some LES going in my Southern LES belt area of WI...Temps aren't going up to soon...Models keep deepen the cold air with each passing run,if this trend keeps going I will have to scale back on the temps through this time frame...Skies should be mostly clear across the rest of the FA ..

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.....

Temps look to well below norms are we will locked under Arctic high pressure..Should be a dry weekend...

LONGER TERM... (MONDAY FEB 23 THROUGH MONDAY MAR 2)......

To start this time frame we find a clipper like system moving just East of the area,should be close enough to bring the FA a chance at some light snow for Monday...Looks like off and on light snows for the FA through this frame,as the Southern Jet remains well South of the areas..So no big storms forecasted ATTM....
Temps start off way below norms only warm to near norms by the end of this period....Could be pushing 30 by the second day of MAR.....

Were is spring ? Forecast below,I don't see spring.

The theme for this forecast is...Where is spring that everyone is talking about ?...Sure we lost a lot of snow,sure we had a week or so of above norm temps...However where is spring I don't see it anywhere...All them spring people got my hopes up,that is until I looked at the short,med,and long term models...
No big problems or headaches with the short and middle term forecast...Temps will be slightly cooler than norms however....

CURRENT CONDITIONS......

Skies have clear out rather nice this morning,this allowed temps to fall into the middle teen across much of the FA,,A few lower 20s showing up,Them areas should fall into the teens before sunrise if them areas are clear..Here @ the Weather Center we have drop to 15.1° While Rice Lake is sitting @ 21.1°...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning's weather charts leaves us high and dry,cold front sitting over Southern NE,and IA...Low pressure over TX panhandle..Large areas of high pressure up in Canada...What does this all mean for our weather you ask...Well I shall tell you..

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

First off the bat for all you snow/winter lovers we still have the rest of this month and March to go..Spring has not sprung like I have seen many folks saying in some of the groups...There is one group that even has a poll on it...I say don't listen to them people spring has not sprung,still plenty of winter to go..Sure temps won't be that cold anymore..As we will see....
Low pressure will remain well South of the FA keeping all the heavy snow out of the area...High pressure is forecasted to build in today and make the FA it's camp until Monday...Temps through this time frame will be slightly below norms for this time of year...Highs in the lower to middle 20s, while lows in the single digits to around the lower teens...So I ask all you winter lovers, where is spring? I sure don't see it....

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.......

To start the period off we shall see clouds be on the increase for Monday night,will hold off with snow until Tuesday,as a trof pushes into and through the area..I'm not to thrilled about snow chances on Tuesday as most of the lift and moisture remains North of the area...Next system to effect the area is forecasted to track South of the area....Though models do show this system to track a tad North than Today's system....Thinking at this point in time is that the heavy snow will remain over Southern MN,Northern IA,Southern WI,and Northern IL...The FA area may be brushed with some light snow,nothing big right now..We will watch this system to see what may happen with it,Models do agree on the track so my confidence is moderately high right now for just light snow or flurries for the FA....Temps will start of slightly below norms than warm to near norms,before going slightly above norms at the end of this time frame..Again I ask all the snow/winter lovers do you see spring ? I surely don't....

LONG TERM FORECAST (FRIDAY FEB 20 THROUGH SUNDAY MARCH 1 ).......

1030 MB high pressure is forecasted to Centered over Western IA This high is forecasted to drop into AR 12Z Friday...850 MB temps shall start in the range of -12C to around -14C or so..By 12Z Friday temps should have warmed to around -8C to -10C...Since we are talking about the temps lets just run right through them for this whole time frame and be done with it....By 12Z Saturday temps warm up to -5C to -2C....By Sunday Most of the FA should see temps around 0C in the Northern areas temps will remain -4C to -2C..By late in the period models showing an Arctic outbreak poised to move into the area..With 850 MB temps cooling to around the -16C to -20C..We will watch that to see if that all pans outs....Let talk about snow chances for this time frame.....Sunday we might have to bring some light snow into the FA as WA starts to kick in,along with a short-wave/low pressure moving into Northeast MN/Northwestern WI..Will keep the chance of light snow going through Monday night,before ending and clearing takes place as a weak area of high pressure builds into the area..Will see off and on snow chances through out this time frame,however it does appear the Southern jet will be pushed further South as the Arctic air Moves in later in this period.This will keep all the heavy precip well to the South...Once again I ask all you snow lovers/winter lovers.Do you see spring ? Once again I say I surely don't....
This long term forecast is way out there,as always things can and sometimes do change..So this is not written in stone......

Updated info on the tornado report below

Best way to do this is to see the comment box under the last post...Thanks to Wendy for adding the info as I didn't have the updated info this morning..I did check the SPC page a little bit ago and did post both reports there....

Montague TX tornado...

Montague's tornado....
Tuesday night was a very bust evening in the Weather Center as we were tracking the severe weather outbreak across OK and TX...The radar grab from was a cell that moved through Montague County of North Central TX...This storm did take two lives and inj 25 people as it moved through the area...I was able to get this base reflectivity scan grab...I didn't grab the base velocity,storm relative,or the spectrum grab like I wanted to..So many things going on...How I love to nowcast!

Some facts about this storm system

I thought I would put out some interesting facts on this storm system...
First on is the pressure...29.20 inches and still falling so that reading my go lower,nevertheless that is a low pressure reading...Not the lowest I have seen,but does show everyone how strong this storm system is...Winds have been gusty all night long here @ the Weather Center we had a gusts up to 32 MPH...Most have been in the range of 25 to 30...Temp this morning here @ the office is 42.6 @ 4:30 AM...
This storm system did bring us FRZ rain yesterday morning which did cause numerous accidents, mainly North of a HWY 8 line see post below....This system also brought in our first thunderstorm of the year around 4:40 PM....Rainfall was on the light side less than 1/4 inch...
I see Rice Lake is coming in 47° I'm up to 44.1° so the WAA still kicking in....
Do think temps will slowly fall later..Winds will remain rather strong 20 to 25 MPH with gusts from 30 to 35 MPH today,will also toss in some light rain,as radar is showing a line of light showers moving into the area...Tonight temps fall into the upper 20s with some light rain changing over to light snow...Highs do cool off for the rest of the week with 20s to around 30...
Lows lower to middle teens....Next week we may be dealing with a major snowstorm more on that later in the week.....

First thunderstorm of the year!

We are having our first thunderstorm of the year right now..Off and on rumbles of thunder...Looking at the radar,show the line os showers and ISO thunderstorms on the door step of Rice Lake....A thunderstorm day,is when one hears thunder..After this pushes through looks to rather dull for a few hours

UPDATE ON THE FRZ RAIN.....

Update of the FRZ rain that has been causing problems for persons in Barron County....Radar still shows another wave of rain/Frz rain moving into and through the area...Though temps are above freezing SFC temps still cold enough to allow the rain to freeze to roadways and tress,and other cold surfaces....There has been numerous cars be reported in the ditches,mainly North of Hwy 8...More so along HWY 48 then also on HWY 63,along with HWY 53...Untreated roads are very slippery ATTM..I counted 4 cars in the ditch myself...So far there has been no injury's reported....FRZ rain should becoming to an end here in the next 1/2 hour to an hour...Next areas of rain is moving into Southern MN and will be effecting area later this morning...By them temps at and near the SFC should be warm enough that icing shouldn't be a problem....

Rain, Thunderstorm chances..

Forecast problem for today through tonight....FRZ rain,Rain,thunderstorm chances,and winds....

CURRENT CONDITIONS......

Temps this morning are in the middle 30s across my Western Counties,while temps East of there are hold right around 30 to 32°
Radar showing waves of rain moving in from the Southwest..Some of this as been mixed with sleet/FRZ rain..Here at the Weather Center we have very light FRZ rain and rain....Winds rather gusty already this morning 10 to 15 MPH.

SFC ANALYSIS.....

On this morning's weather map we find a deep area of low pressure over CO...Also a rather strong high pressure sitting over OH.What does this mean for our weather? Let's find out shall we..

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....

Strong 996 MB is forecasted to move into Western NE by 12Z today.By 18Z the is forecasted to be centered in the Western parts of SD.Later tonight or 00Z Tuesday said low should be over Central SD, also by this time the should have deepen to around 984 MBS..12Z..Tuesday said low is forecasted to plow into Far Eastern ND/ Western MN.By 00Z Wednesday low should by North on MN....Pressure gradients really increase with this system..Winds from today through Tuesday could gust as high as 30 MPH at times...Onto problem number two, as problem number one was the wind....FRZ rain and where will it set up...Looking at the SFC OBS once again,along with thermal dynamics in the mid to upper levels..The best chance at seeing FRZ rain this morning will be over Barron,Rusk Counties and points North of there,Also this where we find the SFC temps right around 30 31°..Little ice accumulations are forecasted,still some of the untreated roadways could become slippery...Temps in said areas should warm before noon for just plain rain....Problem number 3...Thunderstorm chances....Hard to believe am going to be talking about thunderstorms this time a year..Some of these thunderstorms could reach the low severe level thresholds later today into early this evening..Mainly over my far Southern FA...Strong low level moisture and WAA,along with the colder SFC based temps and the cold pocket of cold air at or slightly above 500 MBS...Should produce mid level Cape of 250 to 500 J/KG..This should aid in the development of thunderstorms between 2 PM to around 3 PM the storms should be off and on right through around mid night tonight....Some of these thunderstorms could produce large hail and gusty to strong winds...Would not be shocked to see a damaging wind report here and there,though highly unlikely ATTM....Tuesday and Wednesday Colder air gets drawn into the areas this will mix the rain with snow and change over to all snow..Little accumulations are forecasted at this time.....
Rest of the work week looks dry with temps close to norms....

NO LONG TERM FORECAST ATTM (SEE BELOW FOR THAT FOR NOW)

More changes in the NWS

Yes I'm so glad they made this change,just like they did this winter with dropping the heavy snow warning.....
Here is the email I got from one of friends who work for the NWS out of Green Bay....
Folks...starting about March 15th all NWS offices in and around Wisconsin (basically in the Central Region of the NWS), will change the criteria for issuing a Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 3/4 inch to 1 inch in diameter for hailstones.The March 15th date could be delayed a bit. We will still keep the wind speed criteria of 58 mph or higher - no change is being made to the wind speeds criteria.Essentially, this change will result in fewer Severe Thunderstorm Warnings being issued - since we will not issue warnings for storms that produce hail of 3/4 to 7/8 inch in diameter. Rarely will there be any structural damage due to hail less than 1 inch in diameter. Consequently this change is a common sense change.Spotters are still expected to report hail sizes of 3/4 inch and 7/8 inch in diameter, or larger. It will not be necessary to report hail sizes of 1/4 inch or 1/2 inch in diameter since we've raised the warning threshold to 1 inch in diameter.The NWS offices that service Kansas conducted a test during the past 2 years, and Emergency Managers, the media, and public overwhelmingly approved of the change.
Thank God I won't have to read all the pea size hail reports any more!!!!!!!!!

The forecast

Forecast still hinges around a possible ice storm for parts of the FA..

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps this morning starting out rather warm once again...Middle teens through out much of the FA...Light snow has been showing up on radar over my far Northern parts of MN SFC OBS showing cloudy to clear skies across the area...Fog is also starting take hold this early morning across part of our Southern areas of WI...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This mornings weather map showing a 1030 MB high pressure over NE/IA..Cold front that moved through the area yesterday morning is now into the OH/TN Valleys....We also see a short-wave moving across the MN/Canada border....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

High pressure will be in control of our weather...The short-wave that is now moving across the MN/Canada border will slowly take the clouds and light snow/flurries out of that part of the FA,this will leave that area high and dry by late this morning...Temps for today will be about the same as yesterday..Tonight we should see clouds increasing...Models have delayed the onset of precip until early Monday morning for the Southern areas and late Monday morning for the Northern areas....

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....

Monday 00Z we see our trouble maker over the western part of the TX panhandle..By 06Z low should have moved into Western CO and deepen to around 996 MBS..By Tuesday 00Z said low should be around the Northern part of SD..By 12Z Tuesday the low is forecasted to be into ND riding the ND/MN Border...As the low moves along this track this will drag a warm front into the Southern and Central areas..SFC and upper thermal profiles would suggest FRZ rain to start the show across our Southern and Central areas sometime before sunrise..Then work it's way Northward to encompass the entire forecast area....Upper level and SFC temps do warm enough to change the FRZ Rain over to all rain in our Southern and into a small part of our Central MN areas,while over in WI we should see the FRZ rain change over to all rain before the noon hour...Will hold onto the same thinking for Monday night FRZ rain North,while rain and frz rain Central and Southern areas along with snow mixing into the mix...Tuesday low still effecting the area still not sure on the profiles upper or at the SFC so for now I just went rain/snow this may need to be changed this afternoon...As far as thunderstorms in our Southern areas...There remains the possibility with good moisture available and the strength of the low pressure,however LIS are just around the 0 mark..Winds will become a problem with storm system,as pressure gradients tighten up winds could gust from 25 to 30 MPH across the FA....Temps will remain above norms through this time frame...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

We see another strong low pressure Moving Northeast,along with a clipper like system moving along the MN/Canada border..May see some light snow from the Northern system into our Central and Northern areas,while our Southern areas should remain dry,though there is chance that we may see some light snow here also...After that looks to be dry as we have no ties with the Southern jet stream and the Northern jet stream remains North of the FA...Temps are forecasted to cool back down to norm or slightly below norms...

LONGER TERM FORECAST..(MONDAY FEB 16 THROUGH TUESDAY FEB 24)

We start off the period dry,however by the Wed/Thu time frame we will be watching a storm system moving into the area..This could turn out to be a good size winter storm,temp do look cold enough for this to be all snow...We will start this time frame with temps near or slightly below norms,however temps should warm nicely by the end of the period,with above norms...Like always the long term forecast is way out there and things can, and sometimes do change.....

This trash will end right here,and right now!!

I want to say I'm sorry to all my viewers for this crap that has been going on in the cbox lately....I'm also sorry I had to have this post...If things don't change right now I will be taking the cbox off,and I may very well pull the plug on this blog....


Well this sure is not the way I wanted to start my day!....Ok Tim since you want to carry this trash over to my blog..Let me say a few things....First off the bat why do you have a problem with Derek's blog and sometime my blog ?...Is it because you want to learn how to forecast, and you can't ?....Or is it you just want to start problems ?...If you want to learn how to forecast hey just ask..I'm sure Derek will tell you a few things,even after the crap you gave him..I know I would.I'm not going into how he is right or how he is wrong,heck he's learning...Sometimes his temp forecast are better than mine and I try to figure out how I blew it when the models are saying one thing...Then he goes against them and he's right and I'm wrong,but nonetheless that is no reason to knock his blog or mine as far as I'm concerned....However if you want to start up trouble well you came to the wrong blog for that!
Number two...I really could care less about how fast the snow is or isn't melting....I know this though..A mile plus does make a big difference on how much snow is on the ground...You ever think you may have received more snow than Derek has ? Well it sure is possible you could have!,and if you did yes it will take longer to melt...Did you see on Derek's cbox he did say he was sorry to you? well he did...So why do you keep doing this crap ?...I for one am getting very sick of this crap...I'm ready to pull the plug on my blog...
Number 3....What am I going to do about the msgs on my cbox ?....Well I could delete them, and banned you from my blog also..However I won't banned you attm....I'm telling you this though keep this crap up you will be gone!....Also do not reply to this use the cbox to reply if you decide to...If you do post a comment to this post I'm going to delete it!
So there I have spoke my peace the ball is in your court depending how you want to play ball,will be the deciding factor whether you stay or get kicked off the court!
I'm still mot sure what I will do about the msgs I will talk it over with Derek and then decide what I will do.....
TIM THIS CRAP WILL END, AND IT WILL END RIGHT NOW....GET THE PICTURE!!!

Forecast problems...Short term today through Sunday...Fog this morning...Mid term....Sunday night through Tuesday....Frz rain,rain,than wintry mix,than light snow...

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Skies across the range from clear to cloudy,with fog being reported through out much of the FA..Temps starting out rather warm this morning upper 20s to middle 30s across much of the area..Radar showing some returns nothing to get excited about though.Main story is the fog some has been dense..This should be the trend through the early morning hours...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

WV satellite showing a nice spin over central WI this morning..This low pressure has brought in the mixed precip over night...This low is more to the East than the current computer analysis shows Cold front has pushed through much of MN and into most of our WI forecast area......

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Rather peaceful weekend on tap for much of the forecast area...I may have to add more cloud cover to my far Northern areas of MN with some light snow as a another cold front drops South...As of right now banking on weak area of high pressure/weak ridge to build in sooner than models are forecasting...Fog this morning should burn off rather fast,however points in WI may be dealing with fog into the early afternoon hours..Highs both day will be a little cooler,however still rather nice..Winds this weekend shall be rather light compared to yesterday.....The calm before the storm...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY....

Here is where things get a little complicated....GFS,and NAM for the most agree on the track of the low pressure strength is some what close also...Both Models take the low out of OK/TX panhandle and push it into Northeastern MN through this time Frame....ECMWF has the low a tad more to the East,However this should not play havoc on the forecast...The way thing as setting up at the SFC and the upper level thermal dynamics looks like we may be dealing with an ice storm for much of our FA Sunday night into Monday morning...This mainly appears to be in MY MN FA...Will have to watch our WI zones as this will be a close call for them,as FRZ rain will start Early Monday morning..Should change over to plain rain by time the afternoon rolls along...MN areas will see FRZ rain last longer...Models QPF showing .25 inches of ice could accumulate....For now will hold off on HWD....As this storm system is still in the forming stages,though all models do seem to have a good handle on it.....My Southern zones of MN, and WI may very well see their first thunderstorms of the year will be talking more in detail about this in tomorrow's update...That will depend if we can get the dry slot to work up into them areas....This storm system may also be effect by a severe thunderstorm outbreak over the Southern plans..If this does happen this should limit the amount of moisture flowing North into the FA,We will have to watch that real close as this could very well have impact on this system....

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

Another strong area of Low pressure is forecasted to move Northeast,this low as of right now should not effect the FA as it will remain well South of the area...Will talk about in tomorrow's update....

LONGER TERM FORECAST.....

Sorry long term forecast will not be issued today as we have to much going on with this possible ice storm....

Not a good looking forecast,if you love snow.

Forecast problems through the short to middle term,temps, wintry mix,FZ Rain,rain,and a chance at seeing our first thunderstorm of the year...

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps this morning still rather on the cold side...-2 here at the office while in Rice Lake +2 down in Eau Claire +9..Towards the MN Border temps are in the lower to middle teens...Skies range from partly cloudy to clear across the area....

SFC ANALYSIS...

1000 MB low pressure over MY this morning with a warm front across NE,and IA,meanwhile Artic high pressure well to the South/Southeast of the area,Still keeping temps rather cool through out most of my FA......

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

Low pressure over MT will work it's way into the Western ND, and SD by 18Z today..In the mean time we will see a cold front dropping Southeast out of Canada into far Northern areas of MT, and ND...1000 MB low is than forecasted to track into the Eastern 1/3 of ND by 00Z Saturday..By 006Z Saturday said low should be over North Central MN...This will help drag a warm front through the area ,along with a trof of low pressure reaching through MN into IA...By 12Z Saturday Low pressure is forecasted to be centered in the Northeastern part of MN,around the Lake/Cook Counties...Trof and warm front would have been cleared from the FA by then....Clod front will being to drop through MN and knocking on the Northwester WI'S door Late Saturday night Early Sunday morning 00Z Sunday cold front will have cleared all of WI...One more weak trof to push throf before sunrise....1026 MB high pressure is forecasted to drop in the ND by this time frame...By 12Z Sunday high pressure will be centered over South Central MN,around Blue Earth County....Temps today will be tricky...Models showing lower 40s possible,however with winds more out of the South/Southeast don't feel that will happen with wind field flowing over a large snow pack..If winds would have been out of the Southwest then I would have brought into that....So for today will trim temps back....Lets break this down...Today mostly sunny highs 34 to 37.Winds South/Southeast 5 to 10 MPH...Tonight increasing clouds early, than a chance of light freezing drizzle and fog also possible...Lows tonight 20 to 25.Winds South to Southwest 5 to 10 MPH..Saturday mostly cloudy with off and on chances of light snow and freezing drizzle.Highs 30 to 36.Winds becoming West/Northwest.10 to 15 MPH..Saturday night...Dry under mostly cloudy skies lows 10 to 15..Winds Northwest 5 to 10 MPH..
Sunday mostly sunny with highs 25 to 30 winds Northwest around 5 MPH become South later in the day....

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.....

Things get interesting the first part of this time frame.....All models bring a strong low pressure Northeast into the area..It appears as of right now we will be on the warm side of the low pressure...This will cause a few problems....1..Sunday night and into Monday morning we should be dealing with snow/sleet/and freezing rain...The freezing rain cloud hamper morning travel....By Monday late morning early afternoon warmer air should have overcome the FA in the lower and upper levels to chance any mixed precip over to all rain...Problem Number 2 is The warmer air and rain..We may also see a few thunderstorms later in the day Monday close to home...This could enhance the rainfall rates,This will all help in bringing our snow pack down this will cause melting of the snow...This may lead to some flooding problems through out the FA...However if a severe thunderstorm outbreak happen well to our South this will rob the moisture flowing North into our area,and this would lower the QPF which as of right now is forecasted to be around .25 to .75 inches,So we will have to watch this to see if this plays out,if it does our snow pack won't take as much as a hit as it could have.....Temps through this period will be in the lower to middle 30s.Now if this storm was to track more to the East and South we would be dealing with all snow,However with models in very good agreement over the several runs will stay the track on their thinking with a mostly rain event for the FA..Wednesday and Thursday will run with a chance of light snow,however the big system that could have brought us a whooper of a snowstorm will remain well South of the area...We will watch it as it way out in time.....
No time for long term forecast today,will deal with in tomorrow's forecast package....

Tonight's Moon pictures

Here I go again....Did play around with some settings on the camera this evening..I took these pictures 5:30 PM...Click on the picture for full size!

My websites

I have decided I'm going to do some major work on my websites..I'm thinking about redoing them both changing a lot of things around..It's about time as I ran with the same format for years now....Not sure if I will start that this weekend or next...Just wish the Northern lights would dance in the sky soon, so I can add new pictures to that site...I still have more pictures from the past years I can add to make it look like it's been updated..LOL....Though I would really like new pictures to put on that site....Also I'm just about done with the severe thunderstorm write up the Aug 3 rd storm...So that will be added to my chase site soon...Still need a tad more info to dig up before all is said and done.....

Jan snowfall,and sorta of a forecast....

Snowfall for Jan 09..
There was 12 days of snowfall of .25 or greater..Total snowfall for Jan was 17.75 inches....This brings the snowfall for the winter up to 58.50 inches of snow so far this winter...This does not include the .25 I picked up Monday night...
So as of right now we are way above ave for the winters snowfall.....58.50" - 48" = 10.75"...So 10.75 inches above norms....
Temps were way below ave despite the warm temps we had the last weekend on Jan....Also despite the warmer air we had the snow pack up here really didn't take to big of hit...The main melting was off of the roads and roofs....We might have lost .25 maybe .50 if we were lucky..So plenty of snow pack on the ground for all the snow lovers to enjoy...

A few storm systems we will have to watch next week....
(Will only talk about for early next week...As I have to get ready for work also)


Next week looks to be a very active week around the FA...Models have one hard time in agreeing to what is going to take place..Though somewhat better this morning...Still a lot of questions that need to be worked out...Could every well be a rain event for the area with very little snow fall from this storm system..Also could see some thunderstorms over Southern WI and yes we may hear a rumble or tow of thunder this far North,all depends on the track of the low pressure and how deep it does get...GFS keeps the low weaker around 1001 or so while the ECMWF keep the low around 982 or so...Will be a system we will have to watch through out the next few days...
The system for this weekend I didn't talk about, as it is like a fart in a wind storm....Nothing much to talk about...Just some light mixed precip as a cold front will halt the warming trend for a time......Temps this coming weekend would appear to be just as warm as last weekend....Winds shall be more Southerly this may hold temps down more so as snow pack reaches more South...If winds could remain Southwesterly then temps for sure would meet or surpass last weekend's temps....More details on all of this in Friday's morning forecast....

Tonight's half Moon

Well I had to go out and get some pictures tonight,will only post this as they are big in size...I iwsh I would have used a filter but I didn't...Will know better next time....Click on picture for bigger size

Forecast/snowstom in the long term.

Forecast headaches for the short term period,temps today along with the chance of light snow in the Northern FA of MN,and WI...

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps starting out rather warm this morning mainly in the middle to upper 20s..Some light snow showing up on radar over Cook County MN...Clouds have been on the increase through out our Northern areas of MN..Clear to partly skies elsewhere's...Winds still rather gusty at this hour, but have slacked off from about two hours ago.....

SFC ANALYSIS....

This morning we find a rather strong low pressure system just North of Lake Superior around 985 MBS...That was our problem yesterday that that low got that deep and brought much warmer into the area....That is now history...The cold front that came plowing through here in the early evening hours is already through the State of WI...Our next cold front still sitting up in Canada with a weak area of low pressure...Meanwhile still a rather large ridge of high pressure hold it's own in the Western States...What does this all mean for us......

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.....

Temps going to be tricky today,as they are starting out warmer than thought(see current conditions above)...So I have decided to run with upper 20s to lower 30s across much of the area....Clouds have already become the story in our Northern areas of the FA of MN...Do believe the rest of the FA will become cloudy through the day,this will help keep temps from going crazy today....
By 18Z today the cold front should be lying along the Canada and MN border..Later tonight around 00Z Monday cold front should have pushed through out far Northern areas of MN...By 12Z Monday front should have clear all of my MN FA and start to push into WI, meanwhile computer model rather bullish on forming a low pressure right over the Duluth area...This will enhance the light snow across our Northern areas of MN, and WI....By Late Monday night, around the 00z Tuesday said low will be pushing into MI this will slam the cold front through MN, and WI....However a trof of low pressure is forecasted to pivoted around the low through Northeastern MN,and Northern WI....\Temps will be cooling of once again with highs barely getting out of the single digits if they do...Lows Monday night should have no problem reaching the forecasted values below the zero mark..If clouds do break up temps may drop into the teens below zero by Tuesday morning....

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.....

1035 MB high pressure will take control of our weather...This will allow for rather cool Tuesday..Highs in the lower teens.Tuesday night under clear skies temps will fall to -5 to 15 through out the FA.....As the high slips off to our South/Southeast winds will back to the Southwest/South...WAA will be kicking back in for Wednesday and holding on through Friday...Highs on WED right around the 20° mark warming to the low 30s by Friday.....

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.....

We see a 999 MB low pressure diving into SD..Said low is forecasted to lift into North Central MN by 12z Saturday, and weaken to around 1001 MB..BY 00Z Sunday low will be over the UP of MI.....First off the bat this keep the warm temps going through Saturday with highs in the lower 30s....Central and Southern areas of the MN FA ,along with all of the WI FA should see rain/snow mix...Cold front will race into the area late Saturday afternoon/early evening...Any rain/snow mix should change over to all snow before ending...Does not look like that big of deal attm, as this system is on the move.....

LONGER TERM ( MONDAY FEB 9 THROUGH FEB 17)

Looks like an active period setting up....
Tuesday we will be watching a storm system getting going over the OK/TX panhandle...This system is forecasted to move into SW WI by 00Z Wednesday,however does appear to have enough air pushing well into the FA we could be dealing with mostly rain at the start...By 12Z Wednesday the Low lifts along the Eastern edge of WI...Colder air does get pulled into the system changing rain over to ice than to snow...By then the low is forecasted to be around 997 MBS This system could pack quite the punch with precip and winds...Limiting factors of course would be the final track of low...And whether or not severe thunderstorm in the Southern plains and the MS to TN valleys fire up, if so they will rod lot of moisture flowing North....Will be a system that does need to watch very close....As this could also be the first severe thunderstorm outbreak of the year in the Southern and Central USA........We get a break in the action on Wednesday night..Before another storm system move in from the from KS..This system is forecasted to track across Central IS into Southern WI then into the Northwestern part of MI...Cold air will be in place for this system to be all snow.....After that we may see a few clipper like system moving in from time to time....We will have to watch another storm system on Tuesday Feb 17.....Lets take a fast look at the temps..Temps start this period rather warm,however will be taking a dive as we head through this time frame..Looks like an other Arctic outbreak to finish off this period and the start on the new period.....Model have been showing all of this on their last 4 to 5 runs now..So my confidence level is on the raise.....We will see what plays out.....