The theme for this forecast is...Where is spring that everyone is talking about ?...Sure we lost a lot of snow,sure we had a week or so of above norm temps...However where is spring I don't see it anywhere...All them spring people got my hopes up,that is until I looked at the short,med,and long term models...
No big problems or headaches with the short and middle term forecast...Temps will be slightly cooler than norms however....
CURRENT CONDITIONS......
Skies have clear out rather nice this morning,this allowed temps to fall into the middle teen across much of the FA,,A few lower 20s showing up,Them areas should fall into the teens before sunrise if them areas are clear..Here @ the Weather Center we have drop to 15.1° While Rice Lake is sitting @ 21.1°...
SFC ANALYSIS.....
This morning's weather charts leaves us high and dry,cold front sitting over Southern NE,and IA...Low pressure over TX panhandle..Large areas of high pressure up in Canada...What does this all mean for our weather you ask...Well I shall tell you..
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
First off the bat for all you snow/winter lovers we still have the rest of this month and March to go..Spring has not sprung like I have seen many folks saying in some of the groups...There is one group that even has a poll on it...I say don't listen to them people spring has not sprung,still plenty of winter to go..Sure temps won't be that cold anymore..As we will see....
Low pressure will remain well South of the FA keeping all the heavy snow out of the area...High pressure is forecasted to build in today and make the FA it's camp until Monday...Temps through this time frame will be slightly below norms for this time of year...Highs in the lower to middle 20s, while lows in the single digits to around the lower teens...So I ask all you winter lovers, where is spring? I sure don't see it....
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.......
To start the period off we shall see clouds be on the increase for Monday night,will hold off with snow until Tuesday,as a trof pushes into and through the area..I'm not to thrilled about snow chances on Tuesday as most of the lift and moisture remains North of the area...Next system to effect the area is forecasted to track South of the area....Though models do show this system to track a tad North than Today's system....Thinking at this point in time is that the heavy snow will remain over Southern MN,Northern IA,Southern WI,and Northern IL...The FA area may be brushed with some light snow,nothing big right now..We will watch this system to see what may happen with it,Models do agree on the track so my confidence is moderately high right now for just light snow or flurries for the FA....Temps will start of slightly below norms than warm to near norms,before going slightly above norms at the end of this time frame..Again I ask all the snow/winter lovers do you see spring ? I surely don't....
LONG TERM FORECAST (FRIDAY FEB 20 THROUGH SUNDAY MARCH 1 ).......
1030 MB high pressure is forecasted to Centered over Western IA This high is forecasted to drop into AR 12Z Friday...850 MB temps shall start in the range of -12C to around -14C or so..By 12Z Friday temps should have warmed to around -8C to -10C...Since we are talking about the temps lets just run right through them for this whole time frame and be done with it....By 12Z Saturday temps warm up to -5C to -2C....By Sunday Most of the FA should see temps around 0C in the Northern areas temps will remain -4C to -2C..By late in the period models showing an Arctic outbreak poised to move into the area..With 850 MB temps cooling to around the -16C to -20C..We will watch that to see if that all pans outs....Let talk about snow chances for this time frame.....Sunday we might have to bring some light snow into the FA as WA starts to kick in,along with a short-wave/low pressure moving into Northeast MN/Northwestern WI..Will keep the chance of light snow going through Monday night,before ending and clearing takes place as a weak area of high pressure builds into the area..Will see off and on snow chances through out this time frame,however it does appear the Southern jet will be pushed further South as the Arctic air Moves in later in this period.This will keep all the heavy precip well to the South...Once again I ask all you snow lovers/winter lovers.Do you see spring ? Once again I say I surely don't....
This long term forecast is way out there,as always things can and sometimes do change..So this is not written in stone......
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