My AFD

No long term forecast issued ATTM way to many things going on with the major winter storm heading this way....



This AFD will focus on the major winter storm to impact parts of the FA.....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Snow starting to over spread the area...No time to go into details on temps or anything to deal with the SFC OBS...

SFC ANALYSIS....

1004 MB low pressure over CO,showing up rather well on the Polar Stereographic WV image this morning...Cold front that pushed through the area yesterday/early evening hours now lying over Central IL up into the far Southeastern part of MI,Meanwhile a large area of 1038 MB Arctic high pressure sitting up over Saskatchewan Canada....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.....

!004 MB low pressure is forecasted to track from CO to Northeastern KS by 12Z today..Than into Southeastern IA before reaching the windy city of IL by around 6Z Friday....Looks like most of the FA will see a good shot of 3 to 5 inches of snow with this system,However over my far Northern areas of MN 1 to inches should be the rule...While my Central and Southern areas of MN pick up 4 to 8 inches with some higher amounts..Would not be shocked to see a few 10 inch reports...Over in WI My Southern zones have the best chance at picking up 4 to 8 inches of snow with some iso areas picking up 10 to 12 inches..Here we could see also see some thundersnow,as best left and forcing sets up...Mainly over Barron,Rusk Counties...This would also include our neighbor Polk County...As a rule this system would be really to far South to produce this amount of snow,However with support from the jet,along with where the frontogenesis and isentropic left setting up there is no way we can't deny the parts of the FA mod to heavy snow....Models showing 1 to 2 inches per hour...Lets talk about the thundersnow for a second....If this does indeed play out, which does look plausible ATTM...Snowfall amount could be much higher,if the thundersnow sets up for any amount of time could be looking at 2 to 3 inches per hour....This could very well put the snowfall totals closer to 12 to 15 inches....Main area I'm worried about would be as follows...Central to Northern Barron and Rusk Counties,with Northern areas of Polk County...Up into Southern/Central areas of Burnett,Sawyer,Price,and Washburn Counties of WI...Also would have to include pars of Pine County MN......Winds will be picking up to the 10 to 20 MPH range today this will more problems as blowing and drifting snows will be encountered......Storm system moves out tonight ending the snows...Skies should become partly Cloudy...Temps shall fall to below zero most area as Arctic high pressure builds into the area.....Models now having the Arctic air hanging around to about Wednesday,a day later than yesterday models run showed......