Forecast/snowstom in the long term.

Forecast headaches for the short term period,temps today along with the chance of light snow in the Northern FA of MN,and WI...

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps starting out rather warm this morning mainly in the middle to upper 20s..Some light snow showing up on radar over Cook County MN...Clouds have been on the increase through out our Northern areas of MN..Clear to partly skies elsewhere's...Winds still rather gusty at this hour, but have slacked off from about two hours ago.....

SFC ANALYSIS....

This morning we find a rather strong low pressure system just North of Lake Superior around 985 MBS...That was our problem yesterday that that low got that deep and brought much warmer into the area....That is now history...The cold front that came plowing through here in the early evening hours is already through the State of WI...Our next cold front still sitting up in Canada with a weak area of low pressure...Meanwhile still a rather large ridge of high pressure hold it's own in the Western States...What does this all mean for us......

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.....

Temps going to be tricky today,as they are starting out warmer than thought(see current conditions above)...So I have decided to run with upper 20s to lower 30s across much of the area....Clouds have already become the story in our Northern areas of the FA of MN...Do believe the rest of the FA will become cloudy through the day,this will help keep temps from going crazy today....
By 18Z today the cold front should be lying along the Canada and MN border..Later tonight around 00Z Monday cold front should have pushed through out far Northern areas of MN...By 12Z Monday front should have clear all of my MN FA and start to push into WI, meanwhile computer model rather bullish on forming a low pressure right over the Duluth area...This will enhance the light snow across our Northern areas of MN, and WI....By Late Monday night, around the 00z Tuesday said low will be pushing into MI this will slam the cold front through MN, and WI....However a trof of low pressure is forecasted to pivoted around the low through Northeastern MN,and Northern WI....\Temps will be cooling of once again with highs barely getting out of the single digits if they do...Lows Monday night should have no problem reaching the forecasted values below the zero mark..If clouds do break up temps may drop into the teens below zero by Tuesday morning....

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.....

1035 MB high pressure will take control of our weather...This will allow for rather cool Tuesday..Highs in the lower teens.Tuesday night under clear skies temps will fall to -5 to 15 through out the FA.....As the high slips off to our South/Southeast winds will back to the Southwest/South...WAA will be kicking back in for Wednesday and holding on through Friday...Highs on WED right around the 20° mark warming to the low 30s by Friday.....

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.....

We see a 999 MB low pressure diving into SD..Said low is forecasted to lift into North Central MN by 12z Saturday, and weaken to around 1001 MB..BY 00Z Sunday low will be over the UP of MI.....First off the bat this keep the warm temps going through Saturday with highs in the lower 30s....Central and Southern areas of the MN FA ,along with all of the WI FA should see rain/snow mix...Cold front will race into the area late Saturday afternoon/early evening...Any rain/snow mix should change over to all snow before ending...Does not look like that big of deal attm, as this system is on the move.....

LONGER TERM ( MONDAY FEB 9 THROUGH FEB 17)

Looks like an active period setting up....
Tuesday we will be watching a storm system getting going over the OK/TX panhandle...This system is forecasted to move into SW WI by 00Z Wednesday,however does appear to have enough air pushing well into the FA we could be dealing with mostly rain at the start...By 12Z Wednesday the Low lifts along the Eastern edge of WI...Colder air does get pulled into the system changing rain over to ice than to snow...By then the low is forecasted to be around 997 MBS This system could pack quite the punch with precip and winds...Limiting factors of course would be the final track of low...And whether or not severe thunderstorm in the Southern plains and the MS to TN valleys fire up, if so they will rod lot of moisture flowing North....Will be a system that does need to watch very close....As this could also be the first severe thunderstorm outbreak of the year in the Southern and Central USA........We get a break in the action on Wednesday night..Before another storm system move in from the from KS..This system is forecasted to track across Central IS into Southern WI then into the Northwestern part of MI...Cold air will be in place for this system to be all snow.....After that we may see a few clipper like system moving in from time to time....We will have to watch another storm system on Tuesday Feb 17.....Lets take a fast look at the temps..Temps start this period rather warm,however will be taking a dive as we head through this time frame..Looks like an other Arctic outbreak to finish off this period and the start on the new period.....Model have been showing all of this on their last 4 to 5 runs now..So my confidence level is on the raise.....We will see what plays out.....