Interesting forecast taking shape..Mid & long term

(Used my AFD from the site I forecast for..This will be the case every Saurday and Sunday)

Forecast problems....When to end the snow today....Arctic air,slight warm-up,next system for mid week followed by more Arctic air.....Active period in mid and long term forecast...

CURRENT SFC OBS....

Light snow/flurries being reported through much of the FA...Mod to sometime heavier snows being reported in Barron,and Rusk Counties,along with Southern areas of Washburn and Southern Sawyer Counties...Radar is also showing this rather well this morning..Temps are the warmest in my WI zones....Middle to upper teens,while in my MN zones temps for the most part single digits to lower teens....A few spots reporting single digits below zero....

SFC ANALYSIS.....

Short-wave/low pressure showing up nicely on this mornings WV images over Southern MN...This system lines up right on target with most models....1031 MB High pressure building into the big sky area...Most of the snow heavier snows have been over Barron,and Rusk Counties...Where 3 to 4 inches have been reported into the office this morning....Meanwhile just light snows have been falling across the rest of the FA..With little or no accumulation...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.....

Big question remains when to end the snow across the area.....
Low pressure/inverted trof is forecasted to move into Western IL by 12 Z today than push into Southeastern WI by 18Z today....By 00Z Sunday said low should be over Western MI....Accumulating snows will be coming to end over my Southern parts of the WI FA early this morning...I did keep light snow/flurries in the forecast as the low will remain rather close to the area...I would not be surprise to see a few breaks in the clouds in parts of the FA,however that will be short lived as a weak trof follows said low..Clouds already pushing into far Northwestern MN attm....Winds should be slacking off with gust up to 20 MPH through out this time frame..However areas in Barron,and Rusk Counties could seem some areas of blowing and drifting snow.....Temps today for the most part will be falling in my WI zones,while in the MN zones temps should remain steady or move up the ladder a few degrees.....Sub zero lows on the way for the area once again tonight...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT....

1030 MB high pressure builds into the area...Meaning sub zero morning lows....Skies should become mostly sunny across much of the area...Will keep LES going in the South Shore of WI.through this time frame...Though have thought about pulling that from the forecast...Sunday night looking cold also with Arctic high pressure darn near over head along with light winds and clear skies most areas..Temps will drop back below zero again......Monday WAA tries to kick in and a return flow from the South sets up,this should bring in some what warmer temps into the FA,however I did do some trimming of the temps due to the snow cover over the Southern areas,with wind flow at the surface right of the fresh snow pack...I think models are to warm...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.....

Things still looking as interesting as they were just a few days ago,nevertheless we will need to watch not one but two storm systems that could bring in some significant precip parts of the FA...One system is forecasted to move along the Northern MN border...This may bring snow snows into the Northern/Central areas of MN along with my WI zones for Tues into Wed...The other system 1002 MB low pressure is forecasted to form in Eastern WY/Western MN late Wed...This low is forecasted to move into Southern WI by 00Z Friday...Meanwhile another area of low pressure is forecasted to form over Central WI and push into the Door County area.....If this all turns out we could be seeing a rather large area of snow through out much of the FA through this time frame...Models still not seeing eye to eye on all the details yet...So will leave this just the way it is for the time being...
Temps do warm close to or slightly above 30 for Tuesday...We will have to watch for Mixed precip at the start of this possible storm,before it chances to all snow.....Temps do take a dive downwards once again....

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

System pulls away from the area,setting the stage for more cold temps for the upcoming weekend as a 1038 MB Arctic high pressure builds into the area...Temps are forecast to be -12c to -20C through out the area....Temps do warm from -8C to around -4C by Sunday....Models hinting at another storm system showing up late Sunday......

LONG TERM FORECAST...(MAR 2 through MAR 9)

Like stated above models showing another storm system for late Sunday through Monday night...As of right now temps would appear to be cold enough for just snow..SFC,Mid,and upper temps all support this......Come Thur Mar 5 another system is possible,here again should be all snow...Sat Mar 7th models show a bigger system may start off as mixed before going to all snow...Temps start the period on the cold side,they do warm up by Friday with temps closing in on the 30s,that will be short lived as a big system pulls down cold air into the area..System should be over Western WI by 12Z Saturday...So looks like we will be in for an active period along with cold temps..
Like always this long term forecast is way out in time...Things can and do change!