Rain, Thunderstorm chances..

Forecast problem for today through tonight....FRZ rain,Rain,thunderstorm chances,and winds....

CURRENT CONDITIONS......

Temps this morning are in the middle 30s across my Western Counties,while temps East of there are hold right around 30 to 32°
Radar showing waves of rain moving in from the Southwest..Some of this as been mixed with sleet/FRZ rain..Here at the Weather Center we have very light FRZ rain and rain....Winds rather gusty already this morning 10 to 15 MPH.

SFC ANALYSIS.....

On this morning's weather map we find a deep area of low pressure over CO...Also a rather strong high pressure sitting over OH.What does this mean for our weather? Let's find out shall we..

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....

Strong 996 MB is forecasted to move into Western NE by 12Z today.By 18Z the is forecasted to be centered in the Western parts of SD.Later tonight or 00Z Tuesday said low should be over Central SD, also by this time the should have deepen to around 984 MBS..12Z..Tuesday said low is forecasted to plow into Far Eastern ND/ Western MN.By 00Z Wednesday low should by North on MN....Pressure gradients really increase with this system..Winds from today through Tuesday could gust as high as 30 MPH at times...Onto problem number two, as problem number one was the wind....FRZ rain and where will it set up...Looking at the SFC OBS once again,along with thermal dynamics in the mid to upper levels..The best chance at seeing FRZ rain this morning will be over Barron,Rusk Counties and points North of there,Also this where we find the SFC temps right around 30 31°..Little ice accumulations are forecasted,still some of the untreated roadways could become slippery...Temps in said areas should warm before noon for just plain rain....Problem number 3...Thunderstorm chances....Hard to believe am going to be talking about thunderstorms this time a year..Some of these thunderstorms could reach the low severe level thresholds later today into early this evening..Mainly over my far Southern FA...Strong low level moisture and WAA,along with the colder SFC based temps and the cold pocket of cold air at or slightly above 500 MBS...Should produce mid level Cape of 250 to 500 J/KG..This should aid in the development of thunderstorms between 2 PM to around 3 PM the storms should be off and on right through around mid night tonight....Some of these thunderstorms could produce large hail and gusty to strong winds...Would not be shocked to see a damaging wind report here and there,though highly unlikely ATTM....Tuesday and Wednesday Colder air gets drawn into the areas this will mix the rain with snow and change over to all snow..Little accumulations are forecasted at this time.....
Rest of the work week looks dry with temps close to norms....

NO LONG TERM FORECAST ATTM (SEE BELOW FOR THAT FOR NOW)