Saturday, February 14, 2009

The forecast

No big changes were needed from the inherited forecast..Forecast headache may be a possible major snowstorm for part of the areas come Tuesday into Wednesday....See below for details....Arctic air will also be a problem right through the longer term...So over all temps shall remain slightly to well below norms through this whole forecast period.Sure we may have a few "warm days" here and there,but after all is said and done the ave should be as stated above...

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Clouds still remain in parts of the FA with some areas of light snow/flurries..Other areas have cleared out nicely....Temps have fallen into the single digits to the lower teens across the FA...Radar still showing a few bands of LES across the Duluth area along with our Southern Lake shore Counties of WI...

SFC ANALYSIS....

1030 MB over Canada /ND has pushed the pesky clouds out of most of the forecast area....Low pressure taking shape over the Western UT.....

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

High pressure building into the area has allowed skies to clear through out much of the forecast area all except for our far WI zones,and parts of our far Northeastern zones of MN..CAA well under it's way so today's temps will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday,as stated above I didn't have to much to change in the ongoing forecast...Temps fall below zero for most of the FA tonight and once again Sunday night...We may have to drop the lows if our far Southern zones to below zero also...Temps through this period well below norms once again..Winds for the part should remain rather light this weekend....

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.....

Very weak trof is forecasted to move into and through the area,best chance of light snow shall be found in our Northern zones of MN,and WI and this seems to be were the better lift and moisture is setting up....Highs will a few degrees warmer however still slightly below norms....

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT....

Here is where the problem creep into the forecast..Low pressure over CO is forecasted to track Northeast into Eastern KS and deepen to around 992 MBS..Low is than forecasted to move into Central IL by Wednesday night....Meanwhile a Arctic cold front starts to push into our Northern zones of MN...Also an trof will be pushing into the area...Heavy snow could become a problem For Northern areas of MN ..The Arrowhead seems to in target for this...Meanwhile our Central and Southern zones should only see off and on light snows..We will have to watch the track of this winter storm if the models keep moving it North as they have been,this would push the Southern heavy snow band into for said areas..

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

Arctic high pressure build into the area..Will still keep some LES going in my Southern LES belt area of WI...Temps aren't going up to soon...Models keep deepen the cold air with each passing run,if this trend keeps going I will have to scale back on the temps through this time frame...Skies should be mostly clear across the rest of the FA ..

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.....

Temps look to well below norms are we will locked under Arctic high pressure..Should be a dry weekend...

LONGER TERM... (MONDAY FEB 23 THROUGH MONDAY MAR 2)......

To start this time frame we find a clipper like system moving just East of the area,should be close enough to bring the FA a chance at some light snow for Monday...Looks like off and on light snows for the FA through this frame,as the Southern Jet remains well South of the areas..So no big storms forecasted ATTM....
Temps start off way below norms only warm to near norms by the end of this period....Could be pushing 30 by the second day of MAR.....