Looking back at April.

Time to look back at April...


April was a wild mouth to say the least…. We had some warm spells, had lots of cold snaps…. Overall temps averaged out colder than normal once again..We did have 5 days with > than ½ “ snowfall….We had 1 severe thunderstorm day, 3 non severe thunderstorm days… Let’s go ahead and break this down even more….First off we will start with the snow days….

April 1st we had ½” of snow on the ground.

April 16th we woke up to 3.00” of snow on the ground.

April 20th we saw 2.50” of snow on the ground.

April 27th we picked up another 1” of snow.

April 28th we picked up ½” of snow….

This brings the April snowfall to 7.50” which is way above our normal snowfall for April… This number will stand, if we don’t get any snow before midnight tonight…. The snow days doesn’t count the days were there was light snow/flurries…Just anything >than ½” of snow that accumulated.

Days that had thunderstorms….

April 3rd

April 9th

April 10th

April 30th

Total thunderstorm days stands at 4….

We had 1 Severe thunderstorm day that happened on April 10th Had a PDS tornado watch issued from 3:24 PM to 11:00 PM.

Barron County had 2 severe thunderstorm warnings issued on the 10th.
First one was from 3:37 PM to 4:15 PM.
The second one was from 4:34 PM to 5:15 PM…

Barron County had 1 tornado warning issued on the 10th.

The tornado warning was from 4:40 PM to 5:30 PM…..

This number of severe thunderstorm days look to be safe…Highly unlikely we will get any severe thunderstorms before midnight tonight.

To refresh everyone’s mind…. Thunderstorm days are when you can hear thunder……

Disclaimer all the above info comes from The Weather Center and is only valid for Barron County, WI.

The Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Will change some things….Overall will be cooling temps on a few days in the short and middle term… We did warmup afew days but overall trended temps down a degree or two….


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 1:00 PM we find all stations reporting Sunny to Mostly sunny skies…Temps range from the upper 50s to lower 60s….Winds are for the most part out of the South/Southeast from 5 to 13 MPH with some gusts up to 20 to 22 MPH...…

Satellite imagery show a few clouds trying to work into the area, overall most areas are sunny…More clouds building over Southwestern MN and over parts of ND/SD ….Also noted a few clouds in the sky here at the office.

***FAST FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Forecast problems…There are some that we will try to work out…For the most part ongoing forecast is in good shape… Have decided to warm temps a degree or two for today, and to slow showers and thunderstorms down by an hour or two.. Models have trended slower… We have bought into the slower solution….This will also allow for temps to be a degree or two warmer today as more sunshine is in the picture…This will also slow down the cold front passage for tomorrow… So will hold onto thunderstorm chances a little longer than previous thought… Have thought about pulling thunderstorm chances from Tuesday night also…However will let them ride for now..Will trim temps down for Sunday night /Monday along with Tuesday night lows will hack down a few degrees also… Long term models this late morning and early afternoon are so so in agreement.. With that said confidence levels are a little lower now…. Did warm a few days up, but also cooled a few days down….

May 6th temps 45 to 50 lows 35 to 40….May 7th 40 to 45 lows 30 to 35….May 8th 45 to 50 lows 30 to 35…. May 9th… 50 to 60 lows 40 to 45….May 10th 50 to 55 lows 40 to 45….May 11th 60 to 65 some models showing around 70 so decided to blend for the highs…Lows 35 to 40…May 12th 50 to 55 lows 30 to 35…. May 13th through May 16th 50 to 55 with lows 35 to 40….Will keep the precip the same… See forecast below…..

***YOUR FORECAST***

REST OF TODAY… Partly cloudy highs 60 to 65 winds South/Southeast 10 to 15 MPH gusts up to 20 to 25 MPH..

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1 AM lows 45 to 50…Winds South/Southeast 15 to 20 MPH with gust up to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY… Mostly Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the morning than showers and a possible thunderstorm in the early afternoon highs 50 to 55.Winds South/Southeast 15 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT… Slight chance of showers mixed with snow…Lows 27 to 30

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy,slight chance of showers possibly mix with snow in the early morning hrs…Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon..Highs 40 to 45…

SUNDAY NIGHT… Partly cloudy lows 25 to 30

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy…Highs 48 to 53…Lows 28 to 32…

TUESDAY… Warm and dry…Highs 55 to 60…

TUESDAY NIGHT… Showers and thunderstorms lows 40 to 45…

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms…Highs 58 to 63… Lows 38 to 42

THURSDAY….. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain highs 55 to 60 lows 35 to 40…

2.5 Earthquake in MN...

For those who don't think Earthquakes can't happen up here in the Northern Plains/Western Great Lakes area read this link....
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/us2011kha1.php
Magnitude 2.5 - MINNESOTA


2011 April 29 07:20:13 UTC

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 2.5

Date-Time Friday, April 29, 2011 at 07:20:13 UTC

Friday, April 29, 2011 at 02:20:13 AM at epicenter

Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 45.884°N, 95.465°W

Depth 5 km (3.1 miles) set by location program

Region MINNESOTA

Distances 64 km (39 miles) SE of Fergus Falls, Minnesota

90 km (55 miles) NNW of Willmar, Minnesota

97 km (60 miles) ESE of Wahpeton, North Dakota

205 km (127 miles) WNW of ST. PAUL, Minnesota

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 15 km (9.3 miles); depth fixed by location program

Parameters NST= 6, Nph= 6, Dmin=220.7 km, Rmss=1.17 sec, Gp=151°,

M-type="Nuttli" surface wave magnitude (mbLg), Version=1

Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID us2011kha1

Forecast stands

The ongoing forecast in short and long term will stand...Models in good agreement on everything ATTM.. Temps in the near term and long term all look to be in check,along with the percip chances....
Don't believe what you hear on the news or read...There is no big warmups on the way.. See forecast below.... Temps will cool back off to below norms starting Saturday...Only to warn to near normal throughout the rest of the forecast cycle..Even the CPC is still saying in the 6 to 10 outlook...Temps will be below normal.. Precip forecasted to be slightly above normal.... Even there 8 to 14 day outlook is calling for below normal temps....Precip slightly above normal....If anything I may have to lower temps a few degrees for next week and the longer term....Computer model runs have only had this near normal to slighty above norm temp on two runs!!....So thinking is we might have jumped the gun on it....Will keep an eye on it, just don't be shocked if we drop our temps for next week and the week after....So be shocked when the news forecasters and other forecasters follow our lead!.....
The map below is from the CPC...Just as we been forecasting..... Show below temps from May through July...

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI and today's thunderstorm outlook.

Rain and snow, when will it end many people are wondering….Also many are calling this a year without spring….Yes you are right that it has been….Many are asking if this cold air will last throughout the summer….There is a good chance of that happen….Don’t worry we will see out hot spells, however overall temps are forecasted to be below normal this summer….This was discussed in another post below…..


Ok so now onto to the forecast problems…There are a few things that are in need of hashing out…..Could be a weather pattern change coming in the long term…Looks like it, however it is way too early to tell for sure.

***CURRENT CONIDITIONS ***

At 1:00 PM... All stations are reporting cloudy skies...With some areas of light rain/drizzle around...Temps in the upper 30s to middle 40s....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION ***

This late morning very early afternoon we find a deep 989 MB low pressure just Northwest of NY state, a trailing cold front extends from said low through PA,NC, and Central GA..Meanwhile we are dealing with trofs swinging through the area from the low pressure to our East/Northeast….So we keep rain going for the most part through the afternoon…Still may see some light snow mixed in from time to time, though the profiles are showing the mid levels warming some…. As the system slowly moves away its influence on us will lessen…Weak area of high pressure is forecasted to build into the area, this should allow for skies to become partly cloudy tonight….Friday should see mostly sunny skies as the weak area of high pressure gives us a break in the rain/snow….Temps Friday shall be warmer than what we have seen since last weekend…..This break will be short lived..997 MB low pressure is forecasted to move along the US/Canada border dragging yet another cold front towards the area…Showers and thunderstorms will become likely as we head through Friday night into Saturday morning… LAPSE RATES increase to around 6 C/KM during the overnight hrs… LIFTED INDEX hangs around 0 c so see no reason why thunderstorms won’t happen, however none of these thunderstorms look to be strong or severe….Saturday thunderstorms will die off and leave the FA with just rain showers…As thunderstorm thresholds drop…..Cold front is forecasted to push through the area on Saturday….Will keep a chance of showers in the forecast for early Saturday night don’t be shocked to see some snow mixing with the rain Saturday night….Wind will also be on the increase once again starting Friday night and last through much of the day on Saturday… We could see gusts up to 30 MPH… High pressure builds into the FA for Sunday..This will give us a few days of drier and warmer conditions…Nest system already making it’s reservations for Late Tuesday night through Wednesday…Showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a 1006 MB low pressure rides along the US/Canada border…The low is forecasted by GFS to slide into Southeastern MN/Southwestern WI Wednesday night, then push into Western MI during Thursday morning…So will keep rain going through those days…Once again we could see rain mixing with snow as the 540 line drops well South of the FA Thursday night into the early morning hrs of Friday… Friday we still could see some light rain/snow from time to time as trofs spin around the departing area of low pressure…..
Temps still way below average for this time of year….

***LONG TERM DISCUSSION (SATURDAY MAY 7TH THROUGH SATURDAY MAY 14TH)***

Weak area of high pressure build into the area on the 7th skies should be partly cloudy, this will be short lived as model show an area of low pressure up in Canada Pushing toward the Southeast, however it will remain towards our North/East…Still this will drag a cold front into the area by early Sunday morning….Showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday night (the 7th) into Sunday morning (the 8th)…will keep showers going through the 8th then clear skies Sunday night….. Monday the 9th looks to be dry….. Tuesday the 10th some models showing a chance of rain, however not buying into that just yet.. Wednesday the 11 another storm system is forecasted to move South of the area…Will run with some light rain showers for that day do to the close proximity of the system….The 12th through the 14th stars a high pressure system for the FA..However on the 14th there may be a few showers trying to work Southwards into parts of the FA….Temps will start off well below normal….However we do warm close to or even slightly above normal as we head through the long term….The 7th through the 9th highs in the range of 40 to 45…Lows in the 30 to 35 range….the 10th through the 12 temps range from 50 to 55 with lows in the middle 30s…. The 13th and 14th we see temps from 60 to 65 with lows in the 40s… This may be the start of the weather pattern change?...To early to tell but does look better!!.

***NOW YOUR FORECAST***

REST OF TODAY… Cloudy with off and on rain showers, still may see some snowflakes from time to time… Highs 40 to 45..Winds Northwest 10 to 15 MPH with higher gust.

TONIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy lows 28 to 33. Winds Northwest around 5 to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY… Mostly sunny highs from 58 63…Winds Southwest 5 to 10 MPH becoming Southeast….

FRIDAY NIGHT… Showers and thunderstorms likely after mid night….Lows 45 to 50 winds South/Southeast 15 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH becoming Southwest.

SATURDAY…. Showers likely with a few thunderstorms in the morning…. Highs 50 to 55 falling….Winds Southwest becoming West 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH….

SATURDAY NIGHT… Slight chance of showers…Rain may mix with some snow…Lows 28 to 32….

SUNDAY/ SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy highs 45 to 50…Lows 28 to 32.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy…Highs 48 to 53…Lows 28 to 32…

TUEDAY… Warm and dry…Highs 55 to 60…

TUESDAY NIGHT… Showers and thunderstorms lows 40 to 45…

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms…Highs 58 to 63…

*** TODAY'S THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAP***

Snow and more snow

Many of us in Western/Northwestern WI woke up to a white ground once again today....Yesterday morning we woke up to an inch of snow....This morning there was an 1/2 inch of snow...More snow is in the forecast today....Then another shot of snow for Saturday night....Next week we get a break in the snow and cold temps..Yes I said a break before it comes back into the forecast once again.....Will have a detailed forecast out sometime today.....

Snow video

Snow video taken at Lake Superior...Yeah I was playing in the snow today along with the big waves I will post pictures and other vids later today..I have so much to look at still!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KW0qmzxVWtI

Snow cast for Western and Northwestern WI.

Forecast below stands no reason to change it.....Here is our snow cast map.

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI and thunderstorm outlook.

Enjoy today’s warm weather a big changes on tap, even a chance of snow…Good news is it does warm backup a little by week’s end with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, none of the thunderstorms are forecasted to be severe.


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
All stations reporting sunny to mostly sunny skies...Temps are in the upper 40 to lower 50s...Winds are light out of the West/Southwest



***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

High pressure system will remain parked over the area today…Will run with temps a little warmer than yesterday…999 MB low pressure if forecasted to start to lift Northeast into MO later today..This low is forecasted to deepen to 992 MBS as it pushes into Southern WI/Northern IL by later tonight or early Tuesday morning… This low will hang around throughout Wednesday, meantime we see an upper level low pressure system moving into the MN then into WI…At this time it does not appear that the upper level and SFC low will become vertical stack…. Look for rain to form very early Tuesday….Rain will be likely Tuesday and could be heavy at times….Models painting out ½” to ¾” inches…Winds will also become a problem as they howl out of the Northeast could gust up to 30 MPH….Colder air gets drawn into the system so rain Tuesday night is forecasted to mix with and chance over to all snow….This will also hold for Wednesday morning into early afternoon…. We could see 1 to 3 inches of snow by time the snow changes back to rain and slowly ends….

Will run with a dry forecast for Thursday however will keep clouds around…..Friday looks like the second nicest day of the this week with partly cloudy skies….Saturday another system works into the area so showers and thunderstorm are forecasted.. Will keep rain in the forecast right through Sunday morning until the strong cold front moves through.

***LONG TERM FORECAST MAY 2ND THROUGH MAY 11TH ***

The early morning hr of May second still should see some rain will also be mixed with snow As a Low up by Hudson Bay keeps drawing in colder air and wrap around moisture…We will hold on to rain and snow mix right through the early morning hr of Tuesday may 3rd… High pressure builds into the area on the 3rd so we should see skies become partly cloudy…Temps should be right around 50..Next system moves into the area on the early morning hrs of Wednesday the 4th this will bring a chance of rain back into the area..Once again we could see a rain snow mix during the overnight hrs of Wednesday into early Thursday morning hrs..We get a break on Friday May 6th …By Saturday morning May 7th more rain is back in the forecast. This hold right through Sunday May 8th and Monday May 9th Again with the 540 dropping South we could see another round of rain snow mix in the overnight hrs and early morning hr of the 9th and 10th.Tuesday the rain should end by early afternoon….

So over all highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s with a day or two around 60, but temps will average out to well below normal through this time frame…..Precip should average out above normal….People are already calling this “the year without spring” so far that is living up to the name…..

***NOW YOUR FORECAST***

TODAY….Mostly sunny highs 60 to 65.Winds Southeast/East 5 to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT… Cloudy a small chance of rain after 2 AM. Winds East 10 to 15 MPH..Lows 38 to 41.

TUESDAY…. Cloudy raw cold, windy… Rain likely Highs 38 to 42…Winds Northeast 15 to 20 MPH with gust close to 30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Rain mixing with snow and becoming all snow after midnight…Lows 30. Winds Northeast 15 to 20 MPH with gust up to 30 MPH…

WEDNESDAY…. Snow in the morning mixing with rain than ending in the afternoon..Highs around 40 North winds 10 to 15 MPH….Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from Tuesday night and Wednesday morning…

THURSDAY…. Cloudy, highs around 50. Lows around 37 under partly cloudy skies.

FRIDAY …. Nice mostly sunny, highs around 60.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY…. Showers and thunderstorms lows in the lower 40s highs in the upper 50s

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY…. A chance of rain rain may be mixed with some snow during the night time hrs….Lows 35 Highs on Sunday upper 40s to lower 50s……

TODAY’S THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…..

A new product from the Weather Center.

We are happy to say,we will start doing severe weather forecasting for the CONUS...However with that said we may or may not have a write up with the map...This also may not be issued everyday at the start... Depends whats going on in our FA....
Forecast below stands as we see no reason to change it!

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Forecast problems….Rain chances and amounts… Dry air that is over head, and what to do with later next week system…


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

As of 5 PM…Light rain is starting to push into the area….Light rain being reported at EAU with drizzle at New Richmond…Mix rain/snow over in Osceola…Elsewhere’s cloudy skies are the rule…Temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s….Winds East/Southeast 10 to 15 MPH with gust up to 24 at Rice Lake Airport same here at the office…..Hayward is reporting a wind gust of 25 MPH.. Also some fog being reported…



***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Everyone is asking what happen to today’s rain?... It’s a twofold answer…First reason is drier air worked into the FA out of Canada and across Lake Superior…Second reason is the large area of thunderstorms that formed to the South and pushed into IN….However more storms are forming over IA and Western IL…..This has robbed the moisture returning Northwards into the area…Needless to say it was a cloudy day with areas of drizzle….The combination of the two reasons above still playing havoc with the forecast….Radar is showing an area of rain out over MN…However looking at SFC OBS from MN still a lot of this is not reaching the ground…Out over West Central MN there are reports of light rain Appleton is reporting hvy rain as of this writing… …Have noticed dewpoints are coming up in MN while here in WI dewpoints are still in the middle to upper 30s…They have came up very little…Still some saturation is starting to take place….Looking at the SFC features…We find a low pressure system over Northwest MO with a occlude frnt reaching Northwest wards to another low pressure system over Central SD..This system is forecasted to move Northeasterly as we head through tonight and tomorrow… Looking at the QPF models showing 0.25” of rain over night in my Northern areas with around 0.10 for the rest of the FA…Not sure if I can buy into that much rain as of right…If another complex system of storms form to the South once again this will rob the moisture trying to flow Northwards…Also noted on the WV imagery over the last 12hrs a dry slot is working towards the East/Northeast this in its self could hold down rainfall amounts if this trend holds…Nevertheless we will hold on to likely rain chances for tonight…Though upper profiles not showing the rain mixing with snow….Thinking is to still run rain/snow mix just in case evaporation cooling is stronger than currently forecasted.. Tomorrow will be another cold raw day in the FA however rain should be ending in the morning to early afternoon hrs. High pressure begins to build into the area Saturday night this will setup us with a great Easter Sunday…Outdoors Easter activities will not be hamper by the weather..Temps should sore into the upper 50s to lower 60s…..Models have slowed down the next system…So will now run with partly cloudy wording in the forecast for Sunday night into Monday… Still will be warm on Monday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s once again…. Next system moves into the area for Tuesday…We will keep the rain alive right through Wednesday morning..Have decided to pull rain from Thursday’s forecast as Models are hinting at drier air and a slower movement of the next system…GFS is still the most rebost model on this system….Like EC better so will run with it…..

***LONG TERM FORECAST FROM APRIL 29TH THROUGH MAY 8TH ***

We start this period on the dry side, however Clouds will be on the increase Late Friday morning early afternoon..By Friday night look for rain to devolve out ahead of a warm front reaching Southeast from a 988 MB low pressure system over Canada.. Saturday the 30th look for a cold front to work Eastwards from the Western MN this will produce showers and maybe a few thunderstorms in the early morning…No severe thunderstorms are forecasted attm as it is way too early to see any severe weather indices…. Sunday May 1st will keep a chance of rain alive as the low pressure slides along the US/Canada border… With the 540 line very close to the FA will keep rain and rain snow mixture in the forecast… This will mainly happen during the night time hrs and early morning hrs Sunday night Monday night….By Tuesday the 3rd this system treks out of the area so a dry Tuesday and Wednesday the 4th on tap….Wednesday night early Thursday the 5th morning have elected to bring rain chances back into the forecast..Will hold this right through Friday the 6th as a low pressure system is forecasted to move right over head Late Friday night into early Saturday morning the 7th system still with us some of the long range models hinting at 0.25 inches of rain to almost 0.50 inches of rain…There may be some snow mixed with the rain on the early morning hrs of Saturday….This system moves out by the afternoon hrs of Saturday… Sunday the 8th looks to be a nice day setting up…There is no way to forecast severe thunderstorms this far out in time... Severe weather indicators only go out to 120 hrs…Then that is pushing it!….

Looking at the temps through the long term forecast cycle…. We start the period with warm conditions ok near norms will feel warm though… Don’t get used to it though by the 3rd we take a nose dive back to below norm temps…

So wetter than normal and much colder than normal is the rule…..

CPC 6 to 10 day outlook keeps us well below normal in the temp dept. With above normal in the precip dept.

Their 8 to 14 day outlook keeps us well below normal in the temp dept and near normal in the precip dept…

For those who don’t understand this or, refuse to believe this…. The long term take the averages of the temps so we could have warm days but over all temps will average out to much below normal…Hope that somewhat clears this up, otherwise I will need to write a book on it…



***YOUR FORECAST***

TONIGHT… Rain likely could mix with some snow flurries late…Lows around 36..Winds East around 10 MPH.

TOMORROW… Rain ending in the morning, otherwise mostly cloudy highs in the upper 40s.Winds becoming North/Northwest around 5 to 10 MPH.

TOMORROW NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy than becoming partly cloudy…Lows in the lower 30s..Winds North/Northwest light.

EASTER SUNDAY… Partly to mostly sunny skies highs upper 50s to lower 60s…West/Southwest wind 5 to 10 MPH…

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy lows in the upper 30s… Low 40s in the Southern areas…

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s…

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNSEDAY…… Mostly cloudy with chances of rain…Highs in upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows in the middle to upper 30s…

WEDNSEDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY…..Cloudy highs lower to middle 50s, lows middle to upper 30s…

FRIDAY… Partly cloudy highs upper 50s to lower 60s…

Forecast stands

Forecast stands for the most part....However will run with rain and snow for tonight after 1 AM rain should mix and even change over to a period of all snow...Should be no accumulations...Though could see the ground get white is some areas....Only thing that could play havoc in this would be how strong and widespread the storms get way down South, as this would rob moisture coming Northwards...Nevertheless there will be rain and snow around tonight..
The rest of the forecast still looks on track.....

Short term update

Radar is showing a rather large area of rain throughout the FA, however looking at the SFC OBS most of it is not reaching the ground...As of 9 PM SFC OBS showing rain in Rice Lake, Eau Claire, New Richmond, and Osceola.... This area of rain extends back into MN ....Rain should over come the dry air that is in place throughout the rest of the FA...Look for periods of rain throughout the rest of the evening.

The Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Active weather pattern is setting up for the first part of the Easter weekend… Then once again for the start of the new work week into midweek….Along with the long term forecast cycle…


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At 7 PM all stations are reporting cloudy skies, radar is showing rain over parts of the area this is mostly Virgo…Temps lower to middle 40s with a few spots reporting upper 40s at this hr…Winds out of the South/Southeast around 6 to 9 MPH…Around Lake Superior winds are from the Northeast around 8 MPH….

***FORECAST DISUCUSSION***

First of two systems/short waves to effect the area the first one is already knocking on our doorstep…This one will be staying the night and will bring the chance of plain old rain into the FA…This system should only bring in light amounts with it… Tonight’s system moves out of the area in the morning….So would except a little break in the rain dept before the next system moves in latter in the morning/early afternoon… So tomorrow have plan b ready to execute, as it will be a giving… Once again rainfall amount should remain on the light side.. Most of the moisture/forcing/lift remain just South of the FA, however there will be rain around…This system stay the night with us on Friday also..Saturday this system scoots to the East/Northeast after over staying it’s stay, when doing so this will allow for morning rain showers to come to an end..Would not be shocked to see some snow flurries before this ends…With tonight’s through early Saturday morning amounts could range from ¼ to ½ inch….Leaning more to the ¼ inch as of now…Temps through this period will remain chilly for late April… Sunday a weak area of high pressure builds into the area this will insure us a very nice Easter…Outdoor Easter egg hunts should go off with a hitch in the weather dept. Temps warm into the middle to upper 50s…I would not be shocked to see some lower 60s….This quit period doesn’t last long…Clouds from the next system already set to moving through the later afternoon hrs on Sunday…Though about adding a chance of rain in for Sunday night….Will hold off for now…Will have rain in the forecast for Monday right through Wednesday….Temps through this time frame still on the cool side for late April… Get use to that…Will be talking more about the cooler temps once again….

***LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY THE 28TH THROUGH SATURDAY MAY 7TH ***

We start this time frame high and dry however by Thursday the 28th late evening early 29th morning a low pressure system is forecasted to move into Southwestern MN this will bring a chance of rain back into the area late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Most of the heavier rain should be in my Northern areas to maybe my Northern Central areas GFS is painting out about 0.25 inches of rain….Also to note just a yesterday this system had the makings for a snow storm so now we flip flopped over to all rain….So we will have to watch if the models flop back to a winter storm system…Saturday the 30th we keep the rain going, however we do see enough colder air in place for light rain mixing with light snow from my Central to Northern areas…May 1st the mixture is forecasted to chance back to all rain, however some areas may still see the mixture before it end on Sunday morning. Monday the 2nd we get a break before the next system moves in for Tuesday the 3rd.this is a clipper like system we will have to watch this one also as the 540 line is rather close…Should see some snow in my Northern areas…Next system moving in for Thursday May 5th this should be an all rain event as the 540 line sits North of the FA..We get a another break on Saturday May 7th… Let’s talk about the temps…
Over all temps will average near to slighty below normal through both the short term and long term forecast cycle. Precip will average to close to normal as well….

***LOOKING AT THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING SUMMER***

Now not to put a damper on everyone’s early summer plans, but we must face the facts…La Nina…Yes this is why we had a long brutal winter… Well signs are still pointing at it weaken, however the CPC is forecasting temps to be cooler than average with wetter than average precip ….This goes from May to July…. Enjoy the year without a summer??? Well could be a colder than average summer coming up this year…. Was it 1993 or so when we had a what everyone called a year without a summer I will have to look into that….Nevertheless this trend is trying to hold…..Let’s all hope this is going to be wrong, but again we need to look at the facts….Just saying….

Like it or hate it snow is common in April

Snow in April so how uncommon is it? many have asked…Well the sad thing is, it’s common….The Average snowfall for Rice Lake is about 2.7 inches…So far this April we had snow on the early morning hrs of the 16th which produced 3.00” So far today the 20th we have had 2.5” of snow….So we are now over our average snowfall for the month of April… Let’s just break this down into the past 3 yrs.


Last year 2010 April we had no snow….However in May on the 7th we picked up 2.00” of snow…

Back in 2009 we had 3.50 inches of snow…1.75” fell on April 1st….Then we had 1.50” on the 4th

Back in 2008 we had ¼” of snow on the 19th….

Ok here are some pictures taken this morning….

Snowfall forecast map

Not going into details on this,as most people want spring....Slighty warmer air does move back into the starting next week,however no big warm ups on the way....

Some raw clips.

The links to some raw video clips from yesterday...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_tEgMMouSw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6bsJ4JkQww&feature=mfu_in_order&list=UL

Yet another wave chase!

As many you know yesterday I headed up to Lake Superior to catch the wave action once again….Before I get to this…I have had many people email me or talk to me about how I know the waves are going to be big.
Well there is two ways I know this…One is I look at the weather forecasting models…What I look for is what we call a pressure gradient…Many are saying what the hell is that?.... It is when the isobars are rather tight, or close to each other, from a low pressure to the South/Southwest and a high pressure to the North… I also look for the SFC winds to be blowing across Lake Superior from the Northeast…The more fetch of the Lake along with the strong winds will normally build big waves in the Superior/Duluth areas or known as the head of the lake…. Yesterday was another great setup to build waves…So the storm chaser mode kicked in at 5 AM and I decided I could not pass this up…I did see this coming together on Tuesday however to decide to head up on that alone would be dumb on my part, do to things in the models do change…When I saw things setting up just right yesterday morning I was packing and heading out the door… I made it up to Lake Superior by 9 AM and then the work started….Not too much going on in the wave dept sure they were big but nothing like what was in store for me latter in the day….

I had winds sustained at 30 MPH with gust up to 45 MPH, as the day went by I started to get gust into the 50s MPH….Little did I know that would not be the worst, I did record a wind gust at 57.9 MPH latter in the day…I would have taken a picture of that, however I was outside taken pictures and video along with eating sand…What I also noticed there were two ships in the Harbor they sat there all day, wise choice..With the special weather statement the Duluth NWS had going….I didn’t call in my reports to them, not sure if they wanted to hear about the wind gusts of the lake or not…I would send them pictures, however once again not sure if they want them either..If someone knows email me, or if someone from the Duluth NWS reads this please let me know…I would have to say the Duluth NWS was all over this! They did a great job!
For the most part the day was dry, all except the sea spray, which was really bad at Park Point.. Tons of people out there also so I decided to head back to WI Point… Latter towards evening started to get some light snow/rain/sleet…. Let me say this that sleet stung! I had to call it a day was losing the good light was also sick of being wet! Plus I knew all the real work that was ahead, and I still have more to do still! Ok so here are some pictures from yesterday the video links will be added in another post…..I got to meet a lot of nice people once again, also got to see others I met up there before. So it was a great day for me… I would rank this wave event to number one so far! Even the people I was talking to said the same....

More pictures can be found on my facebook..I will add more this evening.

Just some pictures from yesterday.

I figured I would post some pictures from yesterday...There is no way I doing a forecast,why you ask? well there is snow in the forecast....Enough said about that!.

Severe storms and some what of a chase log..

Severe thunderstorms rocked Wisconsin yesterday afternoon…All this info is preliminary things could change as the NWS throughout WI does storm damage surveys ….Yesterday WI saw 7 tornadoes…Here are the Counties that reported tornadoes….Eau Claire 1, Adams 2 , Marathon 2, Lincoln 1, and Winnebago 1. There was 49 hail reports…Wind reports came in at 37….One has to be careful when looking at the reports as some may be double reported..This is why this is all preliminary…..Would I call this a severe weather outbreak..Yes and no, here's what I mean…I would call it a mini severe weather outbreak….This could have been much worse than what it was…The storms did have a hard time breaking the cap yesterday afternoon in Eastern MN/Western WI, if they would have be able to break the cap sooner it would have been much worse than what it was, a larger area of WI would have been effected…There was some wind problems also on the start of the storms….Once the storms started to fire up it didn’t take long for severe weather to become a problem..Will break that down for my local area in awhile….Storms were booking off to the East/Northeast anywhere form 50 to 70 MPH..So one had to be on a storm just about the time it went up….


Ok now on to my some what of a chase log….
The map below shows day one outlook from the Storm prediction Center...

I was forecasting this event days ahead of time…Yesterday was the play and wait game…I forecasted storms would get going around the 3 PM hour one can see that below.. The SPC(The Storm Prediction Center issued an MD (Meso Discussion) at 1:30 PM here is the map below….

So now the waiting game went to chaser mode…One nice thing about targeting the my local area I could sit and watch the data….The SPC issued a PDS tornado watch for a good part of WI at around 3:24 PM see map below….

I decided to head toward Southeast Barron County….I was down my New Auburn that was the right area to be…However I made a big no no…I heard one of my friend and his friend was going to be chasing,so I told them to meet me in Almena at the time I thought would be ok…I got there only to find out they headed to Dallas WI…Well I sat there on this cell looked like it had everything going for it so I played it for awhile then it poof it died….

I started to head East then…My friend said they were getting on Hwy 8 I told them to meet me in Barron well to make a long story short they headed East…I wanted to meet up with them then they could have followed me…So now I knew I had to book to catch back up with the storms….Thanks God for back roads and short cuts I got to know over the years of chasing in the land of hills and trees…To make this shorter I got over into Taylor County, Marathon,and Lincoln Counties…These is where we saw our two tornadoes, was hard to really tell at first however after looking at the video last night we did get two… I will try to post a vid clip and some pictures later today,as time is running short..

The map  below shows the storm reports and the outlook..From the SPC...

For the local area here is how the warnings went down....
Severe thunderstorm warning issued at 3:37 PM to 4:15 PM for the following Counties.
South Central Barron, West Central Chippewa,Dunn, Northerneastern Pierce,and Southeastern ST. Croix....
Severe thunderstorm warning issued at 4:34 PM to 5:15 PM for the following Counties...
Southeastern Barron, Western Chippewa,Northeastern Dunn,and Rusk....
Tornado warning issued at 4:45 PM to 5:15 PM for the following Counties..
Southeastern Barron, Western Rusk,Northwestern Chippewa,Northeastern Dunn....
Warnings were in my email box plus I also get them on my cell phone..All warnings come from the NWS....

All in all it was a good chase day….I had a good system in place however I threw that out the window as I was trying to meet up with my friend…I was a little ticked about that, but it was their lost in the long run…Though it would have been fun to have them chase with us….I tried, I don’t think they trusted my skills, maybe next time….I know my nowcaster was ticked at me cause I didn't head South…But by time I got done screwing around I knew it was going to be to late to get there…I was some what pissed at myself and kinda took it out on him as he was giving my all the warnings to my South so I had like tons of warnings! As I get the warning on my cell phone from the NWS…Once I got back to where I wanted to be, my nowcaster did a great job so I do have to thank him for that!...So my lesson was learned…That will never happen again no more wasting time…Anyone who wants to meet up with me you will have to find me!….Yes I’m still kicking myself hard for that,knowing I could have got the tornado down by EAU also…..


I’m not pissed at my friend or my nowcaster, just myself! Just so they both know that !!

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS****

***SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LOOKING LIKELY***



This would include large hail, damaging winds, Tornadoes…Some tornadoes could be strong!
 See map below as it will stand from yesterday.

This discussion will focus on the severe thunderstorm outbreak that could happen throughout much of the FA…Will also talk about what could limit the factors to this severe weather episode……

Looking at the SFC charts first…This morning we find a frontal boundary out over far Northwestern WI reaching to a trof or a weak area of low pressure over South central ND. The frontal boundary extends to the Southwest into WY/CO area to another area of low pressure which is getting its act going…. Warm front still sitting down over KS and MO this early morning…

Low pressure/shot wave is forecasted to eject Northeast towards MN as this happens the warm front is forecast to start its journey Northwards timing on how fast the warm front will make it North is still somewhat unclear..Nam seems to be a little faster with the overall movement of the whole system..GFS/EC have had the best handle over the last few days..So have decided to blend all three….Warm front should be in Southern MN/Northern IA by 00Z Sunday…..For tonight thinking is an area of MCS will form along the warm front and they should left Northeast into the area….LLJ is forecast to crank up this aid in WAA and moisture into the area…2m Dewpoints later tonight are forecasted to increase to 50 from Central Burnett/Washburn/Southern Sawyer Counties and points South of that line as the warm front surges Northwards MCS are forecasted to move into the FA…Some of these storms could be severe…Main threat later tonight would be large hail along with some damaging winds…..

Tomorrow….

This day still remains a little problematic …..In the early morning hrs ongoing showers/thunderstorms with a few severe thunderstorms will be likely…This activity is forecasted to weaken as it moves Northeast into more stable air…Warm front should be close to Central Burnett/Washburn/Sawyer Counties….Dry air is forecasted to punch Northwards into the area by mid morning/early afternoon…Should see a period of some sunshine, this will allow for SFC which in return should yield for temps in the upper 60 to middle 70s moisture is still forecasted to increase with 2m dewpoints going up to around 55/60…Low pressure is forecasted to lift into Central MN in the afternoon this will also push a cold front towards the area by late afternoon through the mid evening hrs…. CAPE increases to around 1500 J/K to 2000 J/K. LIFTED INDEX shoots to around -4 to -6 in the afternoon…Shear values right around 60 KT. Mid level jet up around 100 KT….This all is setting the stage for what could be a severe weather outbreak across a good chunk of the FA….Main threat, large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible… Some tornadoes could be strong…..

Limiting factors to all this…..Would be as follows….Clouds/showers and storms from the overnight hrs hang in longer than forecasted, causing less SFC heating… The warm front sits further South than forecasted..Cap should not be a problem….So we will have to see how the overnight MCS plays into all this, if they remain strong enough it may be enough to keep the warm front South into my far Southern FA…..

Listen to NOAA weather radio/your local News Media for the latest on this possible severe weather outbreak….

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT***

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS***
Severe thunderstorms are possible for Sunday and some areas looking likely see map below for that info....Strong warm front is forecasted to surge Northwards...A strong storm system is projected to lift Northeast out of the Central Plains and through the area this weekend...Saturday late afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms are forecasted to break out over the area,however these storms should remain below severe weather thresholds still we could see a few grumpy storms to even strong storms are head into the overnight hours on Saturday as the warm front is forecasted to begin its trip Northwards....Right now thinking heavy rain will be the main player for Saturday night into the wee early morning hrs of Sunday....Could see some hail with the more intense updrafts.....
Sunday/Sunday night.
Things get just a little tricky to whether we see a severe weather outbreak or just strong storms with ISO severe storms....Some limiting factors for the severe weather threat would be as follows.... The track of the low is still not 100% written in stone just yet,any shift would cause severe storms to shift one way or another....How much deep level moisture will work into the area....How fast we can break up the clouds from from Saturday nights storms....If we can get good SFC heating going soon enough to destabilize to the atmosphere...We will also have to watch to see how strong the cap does get if we break out into sunshine.
As of right now this system does have the potential to produce a severe weather outbreak with most of the FA under the gun....
Main threat from severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening would be...Large hail,damaging winds,and tornadoes...Tornado threat would be in the areas that are able to see some breaks in the cloud cover...
Another updated is planed for tonight.....

Fast look at the forecast...

Once again another fast forecast discussion…Bad news for those who want and who love spring..Don’t let the temps the rest of this week and late weekend make you think spring is here to stay…It’s not just yet…...Don’t put away the winter coats and shovel just yet…Will talk about this is a few…


.Forecast for the rest of the work week and weekend…Temps will be rather warm….There will be a chance at some light rain/snow showers tonight which has already been happening this evening… Lows tonight shall fall to around 30…Wednesday will remain mostly cloudy with a few break of sunshine,still some light rain/snow showers around the area highs should warm to around 50 once again….Wednesday night cooler a partly cloudy skies temps fall into the upper 20s….Thursday will star sunshine and temps getting close to 55…Rain moves back into the forecast for Thursday night with lows around the upper 30s..Friday Cloudy with a chance of rain into the early afternoon hours highs cooler right around 50….Friday night will keep clouds in the area will drop temps into the middle 30s….Saturday looks to be cloudy with highs in the middle 50s… Saturday night showers and thunderstorms lows in the middle 40s… Some storms could be strong like stated in the cbox earlier today….. Sunday cloud warm highs upper 50s to lower 60s…Showers and thunderstorms once again some storms could be strong… Severe weather threat should stay well South of the area over Southwestern,Southern WI…The way it looks right now…

Temps cool back off into the upper 40s and lower 50s Monday and Tuesday with lows cooling from the lower 40s to the middle 30s….Could even see some snow around the area Monday night….

The 14th and 15th will be a system to watch this will bring rain back into the forecast,however as colder air gets pulled South rain should mix and change over to all snow there could be some acummulations….another system for the 17 18th looks to bring rain then a chance of snow…More snow pushes into the area for the 20th..This system looks like it will bring most of the snow to our South….This is a long ways out there so not to worried about it now…..However like stated above don’t put away the winter gear just yet it will be needed a little longer

April 3rd and 4th 2011 severe weather outbreak numbers

This past severe weather outbreak of April 3rd and 4th was unreal….April 4th had the highest ever recorded for a single day…Total was 1303 events…Lets break this down..There was 25 reported tornadoes..There was 1189 wind reports…There were 89 hail reports…..Sad thing there was 5 people who lost their lives yesterday and evening….18 people were injured… Lets break this down even more….. Tornadoes yesterday and last evening claimed 2 lives,injured 5 people….Thunderstorm winds claimed 3 lives and injured 13 people…..For the two day total from April 3rd through April 4th 2011 there was 1624 severe weather events reported…..So this severe weather event will be going down in the record books….This info came from the SPC and is preliminary data so this number may or may not go up or could even be lowered…


This all happened on the anniversary of the super outbreak that happened on April 3rd and 4th 1974…The super outbreak was more Violante than the one we just went through…The total severe weather events for this time frame was 450 reports…There was 148 tornadoes reported and 330 people lost their lives in the event….Now with the super outbreak there could have very will been more tornadoes and other severe weather events that have not been recorded..Reason for this is….Back in them days they weren’t as many storm spotters and storm chasers,like we today..

Severe weather outbreak of April 3rd and 4th....

We will have a in depth report of this outbreak either tomorrow night or Wednesday....
 For now on April 3rd... there was 321 severe weather events...254 hail reports....67 wind reports...
0 tornadoes...However one every well documented gustnado...See the Topeka NWS for more info on that...I will have other links on it also....
Today as of 11:15 PM there has been 595 severe weather events reported.... 19 tornadoes.... 64 hail reports....512 wind reports.... Total so far from yesterday and today is 916 severe weather events....
All info comes from the SPC and other NWS sites....Again will go into more details on this tomorrow night or Wednesday...


Update as of 11:30 PM the number of severe weather events now stands at 632.....hail is up to 68 winds are up to 545 reports now...Tornado reports still at 19...

Fast forecast discussion.

Forecast problems….Rain/snow mixture for tonight and tomorrow… Winds will become a little problem Monday/Monday night.. Temps going to be a little tricky throughout the work week head….




***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Looking at the 22z run from RUC we find a 997 MB low pressure over South Central IA…..Meanwhile another area low pressure is sitting back over South Central KS… A trof was reaching Northwards Cold front is now moving through Northwest MN…Meantime a warm front is trying to work its way Northwards…Should not make too much further than were its at now Southern WI/MN….Anyway we cut it slice it or dice it,we shall see off and on rain showers through the evening hrs radar is showing this rather well this also lines up with SFC OBS….. Rain should mix with snow after the midnight hr….Not to thrilled about accumulations maybe around ½” at best…. Monday we shall see the snow/rain ending in the late morning hrs….Another problem with Monday will be the strong pressure raises as CAA really cranks up….We could see winds from the Northwest 10 to 20 MPH with wind gust up to 30 MPH or so…. Temps should be in the upper 30s…Monday night winds will still be rather strong however should start to slack off later in the evening…Skies should become partly cloudy to clear…Low will fall into the middle 20s…

Next chance of precip come back in for Tuesday night…However not to thrilled about this as models are weaken this system with each passing run….Thursday and Thursday night is really looking interesting right now….Models GFS/ECMWF/GEM all have a good handle on this system as of now…..This system has the possibility to bring thunderstorms back into the area…Some of the storms could be rather grumpy…We will have to see how this plays out over the next few days…Something to keep an eye on though…. Yet another system slides in for the weekend…Right now this system appears to remain just South, however my Southern FA could see some rain….

To sum up this forecast cycle wet…Temps warming from the upper 30s to the upper 40s by Friday a shot at 50 by Saturday then cooler for Sunday….

***LONG RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION MONDAY APRIL 11TH THROUGH TUESDAY APRIL 19TH ***

Looks like we could start this time frame on the cold side and yes a chance of plain old snow Monday/Monday night the 11th time frame this system moves out of the area by the 12th . We should remain dry through the 14th next chance of rain comes in on the 15th as this system pulls out of the area colder air is forecasted to rush back in by the 16th on the 18 we should see more rain surge back into the area as a low pressure system works Northeast into South Central WI… Bad news is this has the markings of a winter storm written all over it….We shall see…..