Sunday, April 3, 2011

Fast forecast discussion.

Forecast problems….Rain/snow mixture for tonight and tomorrow… Winds will become a little problem Monday/Monday night.. Temps going to be a little tricky throughout the work week head….


Looking at the 22z run from RUC we find a 997 MB low pressure over South Central IA…..Meanwhile another area low pressure is sitting back over South Central KS… A trof was reaching Northwards Cold front is now moving through Northwest MN…Meantime a warm front is trying to work its way Northwards…Should not make too much further than were its at now Southern WI/MN….Anyway we cut it slice it or dice it,we shall see off and on rain showers through the evening hrs radar is showing this rather well this also lines up with SFC OBS….. Rain should mix with snow after the midnight hr….Not to thrilled about accumulations maybe around ½” at best…. Monday we shall see the snow/rain ending in the late morning hrs….Another problem with Monday will be the strong pressure raises as CAA really cranks up….We could see winds from the Northwest 10 to 20 MPH with wind gust up to 30 MPH or so…. Temps should be in the upper 30s…Monday night winds will still be rather strong however should start to slack off later in the evening…Skies should become partly cloudy to clear…Low will fall into the middle 20s…

Next chance of precip come back in for Tuesday night…However not to thrilled about this as models are weaken this system with each passing run….Thursday and Thursday night is really looking interesting right now….Models GFS/ECMWF/GEM all have a good handle on this system as of now…..This system has the possibility to bring thunderstorms back into the area…Some of the storms could be rather grumpy…We will have to see how this plays out over the next few days…Something to keep an eye on though…. Yet another system slides in for the weekend…Right now this system appears to remain just South, however my Southern FA could see some rain….

To sum up this forecast cycle wet…Temps warming from the upper 30s to the upper 40s by Friday a shot at 50 by Saturday then cooler for Sunday….


Looks like we could start this time frame on the cold side and yes a chance of plain old snow Monday/Monday night the 11th time frame this system moves out of the area by the 12th . We should remain dry through the 14th next chance of rain comes in on the 15th as this system pulls out of the area colder air is forecasted to rush back in by the 16th on the 18 we should see more rain surge back into the area as a low pressure system works Northeast into South Central WI… Bad news is this has the markings of a winter storm written all over it….We shall see…..