Ok so now onto to the forecast problems…There are a few things that are in need of hashing out…..Could be a weather pattern change coming in the long term…Looks like it, however it is way too early to tell for sure.
***CURRENT CONIDITIONS ***
At 1:00 PM... All stations are reporting cloudy skies...With some areas of light rain/drizzle around...Temps in the upper 30s to middle 40s....
***FORECAST DISCUSSION ***
This late morning very early afternoon we find a deep 989 MB low pressure just Northwest of NY state, a trailing cold front extends from said low through PA,NC, and Central GA..Meanwhile we are dealing with trofs swinging through the area from the low pressure to our East/Northeast….So we keep rain going for the most part through the afternoon…Still may see some light snow mixed in from time to time, though the profiles are showing the mid levels warming some…. As the system slowly moves away its influence on us will lessen…Weak area of high pressure is forecasted to build into the area, this should allow for skies to become partly cloudy tonight….Friday should see mostly sunny skies as the weak area of high pressure gives us a break in the rain/snow….Temps Friday shall be warmer than what we have seen since last weekend…..This break will be short lived..997 MB low pressure is forecasted to move along the US/Canada border dragging yet another cold front towards the area…Showers and thunderstorms will become likely as we head through Friday night into Saturday morning… LAPSE RATES increase to around 6 C/KM during the overnight hrs… LIFTED INDEX hangs around 0 c so see no reason why thunderstorms won’t happen, however none of these thunderstorms look to be strong or severe….Saturday thunderstorms will die off and leave the FA with just rain showers…As thunderstorm thresholds drop…..Cold front is forecasted to push through the area on Saturday….Will keep a chance of showers in the forecast for early Saturday night don’t be shocked to see some snow mixing with the rain Saturday night….Wind will also be on the increase once again starting Friday night and last through much of the day on Saturday… We could see gusts up to 30 MPH… High pressure builds into the FA for Sunday..This will give us a few days of drier and warmer conditions…Nest system already making it’s reservations for Late Tuesday night through Wednesday…Showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a 1006 MB low pressure rides along the US/Canada border…The low is forecasted by GFS to slide into Southeastern MN/Southwestern WI Wednesday night, then push into Western MI during Thursday morning…So will keep rain going through those days…Once again we could see rain mixing with snow as the 540 line drops well South of the FA Thursday night into the early morning hrs of Friday… Friday we still could see some light rain/snow from time to time as trofs spin around the departing area of low pressure…..
Temps still way below average for this time of year….
***LONG TERM DISCUSSION (SATURDAY MAY 7TH THROUGH SATURDAY MAY 14TH)***
Weak area of high pressure build into the area on the 7th skies should be partly cloudy, this will be short lived as model show an area of low pressure up in Canada Pushing toward the Southeast, however it will remain towards our North/East…Still this will drag a cold front into the area by early Sunday morning….Showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday night (the 7th) into Sunday morning (the 8th)…will keep showers going through the 8th then clear skies Sunday night….. Monday the 9th looks to be dry….. Tuesday the 10th some models showing a chance of rain, however not buying into that just yet.. Wednesday the 11 another storm system is forecasted to move South of the area…Will run with some light rain showers for that day do to the close proximity of the system….The 12th through the 14th stars a high pressure system for the FA..However on the 14th there may be a few showers trying to work Southwards into parts of the FA….Temps will start off well below normal….However we do warm close to or even slightly above normal as we head through the long term….The 7th through the 9th highs in the range of 40 to 45…Lows in the 30 to 35 range….the 10th through the 12 temps range from 50 to 55 with lows in the middle 30s…. The 13th and 14th we see temps from 60 to 65 with lows in the 40s… This may be the start of the weather pattern change?...To early to tell but does look better!!.
***NOW YOUR FORECAST***
REST OF TODAY… Cloudy with off and on rain showers, still may see some snowflakes from time to time… Highs 40 to 45..Winds Northwest 10 to 15 MPH with higher gust.
TONIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy lows 28 to 33. Winds Northwest around 5 to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY… Mostly sunny highs from 58 63…Winds Southwest 5 to 10 MPH becoming Southeast….
FRIDAY NIGHT… Showers and thunderstorms likely after mid night….Lows 45 to 50 winds South/Southeast 15 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH becoming Southwest.
SATURDAY…. Showers likely with a few thunderstorms in the morning…. Highs 50 to 55 falling….Winds Southwest becoming West 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH….
SATURDAY NIGHT… Slight chance of showers…Rain may mix with some snow…Lows 28 to 32….
SUNDAY/ SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy highs 45 to 50…Lows 28 to 32.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy…Highs 48 to 53…Lows 28 to 32…
TUEDAY… Warm and dry…Highs 55 to 60…
TUESDAY NIGHT… Showers and thunderstorms lows 40 to 45…
WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms…Highs 58 to 63…
*** TODAY'S THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAP***
