Thursday, April 21, 2011

The Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Active weather pattern is setting up for the first part of the Easter weekend… Then once again for the start of the new work week into midweek….Along with the long term forecast cycle…


At 7 PM all stations are reporting cloudy skies, radar is showing rain over parts of the area this is mostly Virgo…Temps lower to middle 40s with a few spots reporting upper 40s at this hr…Winds out of the South/Southeast around 6 to 9 MPH…Around Lake Superior winds are from the Northeast around 8 MPH….


First of two systems/short waves to effect the area the first one is already knocking on our doorstep…This one will be staying the night and will bring the chance of plain old rain into the FA…This system should only bring in light amounts with it… Tonight’s system moves out of the area in the morning….So would except a little break in the rain dept before the next system moves in latter in the morning/early afternoon… So tomorrow have plan b ready to execute, as it will be a giving… Once again rainfall amount should remain on the light side.. Most of the moisture/forcing/lift remain just South of the FA, however there will be rain around…This system stay the night with us on Friday also..Saturday this system scoots to the East/Northeast after over staying it’s stay, when doing so this will allow for morning rain showers to come to an end..Would not be shocked to see some snow flurries before this ends…With tonight’s through early Saturday morning amounts could range from ¼ to ½ inch….Leaning more to the ¼ inch as of now…Temps through this period will remain chilly for late April… Sunday a weak area of high pressure builds into the area this will insure us a very nice Easter…Outdoor Easter egg hunts should go off with a hitch in the weather dept. Temps warm into the middle to upper 50s…I would not be shocked to see some lower 60s….This quit period doesn’t last long…Clouds from the next system already set to moving through the later afternoon hrs on Sunday…Though about adding a chance of rain in for Sunday night….Will hold off for now…Will have rain in the forecast for Monday right through Wednesday….Temps through this time frame still on the cool side for late April… Get use to that…Will be talking more about the cooler temps once again….


We start this time frame high and dry however by Thursday the 28th late evening early 29th morning a low pressure system is forecasted to move into Southwestern MN this will bring a chance of rain back into the area late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Most of the heavier rain should be in my Northern areas to maybe my Northern Central areas GFS is painting out about 0.25 inches of rain….Also to note just a yesterday this system had the makings for a snow storm so now we flip flopped over to all rain….So we will have to watch if the models flop back to a winter storm system…Saturday the 30th we keep the rain going, however we do see enough colder air in place for light rain mixing with light snow from my Central to Northern areas…May 1st the mixture is forecasted to chance back to all rain, however some areas may still see the mixture before it end on Sunday morning. Monday the 2nd we get a break before the next system moves in for Tuesday the 3rd.this is a clipper like system we will have to watch this one also as the 540 line is rather close…Should see some snow in my Northern areas…Next system moving in for Thursday May 5th this should be an all rain event as the 540 line sits North of the FA..We get a another break on Saturday May 7th… Let’s talk about the temps…
Over all temps will average near to slighty below normal through both the short term and long term forecast cycle. Precip will average to close to normal as well….


Now not to put a damper on everyone’s early summer plans, but we must face the facts…La Nina…Yes this is why we had a long brutal winter… Well signs are still pointing at it weaken, however the CPC is forecasting temps to be cooler than average with wetter than average precip ….This goes from May to July…. Enjoy the year without a summer??? Well could be a colder than average summer coming up this year…. Was it 1993 or so when we had a what everyone called a year without a summer I will have to look into that….Nevertheless this trend is trying to hold…..Let’s all hope this is going to be wrong, but again we need to look at the facts….Just saying….