The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Forecast problems….Rain chances and amounts… Dry air that is over head, and what to do with later next week system…


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

As of 5 PM…Light rain is starting to push into the area….Light rain being reported at EAU with drizzle at New Richmond…Mix rain/snow over in Osceola…Elsewhere’s cloudy skies are the rule…Temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s….Winds East/Southeast 10 to 15 MPH with gust up to 24 at Rice Lake Airport same here at the office…..Hayward is reporting a wind gust of 25 MPH.. Also some fog being reported…



***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Everyone is asking what happen to today’s rain?... It’s a twofold answer…First reason is drier air worked into the FA out of Canada and across Lake Superior…Second reason is the large area of thunderstorms that formed to the South and pushed into IN….However more storms are forming over IA and Western IL…..This has robbed the moisture returning Northwards into the area…Needless to say it was a cloudy day with areas of drizzle….The combination of the two reasons above still playing havoc with the forecast….Radar is showing an area of rain out over MN…However looking at SFC OBS from MN still a lot of this is not reaching the ground…Out over West Central MN there are reports of light rain Appleton is reporting hvy rain as of this writing… …Have noticed dewpoints are coming up in MN while here in WI dewpoints are still in the middle to upper 30s…They have came up very little…Still some saturation is starting to take place….Looking at the SFC features…We find a low pressure system over Northwest MO with a occlude frnt reaching Northwest wards to another low pressure system over Central SD..This system is forecasted to move Northeasterly as we head through tonight and tomorrow… Looking at the QPF models showing 0.25” of rain over night in my Northern areas with around 0.10 for the rest of the FA…Not sure if I can buy into that much rain as of right…If another complex system of storms form to the South once again this will rob the moisture trying to flow Northwards…Also noted on the WV imagery over the last 12hrs a dry slot is working towards the East/Northeast this in its self could hold down rainfall amounts if this trend holds…Nevertheless we will hold on to likely rain chances for tonight…Though upper profiles not showing the rain mixing with snow….Thinking is to still run rain/snow mix just in case evaporation cooling is stronger than currently forecasted.. Tomorrow will be another cold raw day in the FA however rain should be ending in the morning to early afternoon hrs. High pressure begins to build into the area Saturday night this will setup us with a great Easter Sunday…Outdoors Easter activities will not be hamper by the weather..Temps should sore into the upper 50s to lower 60s…..Models have slowed down the next system…So will now run with partly cloudy wording in the forecast for Sunday night into Monday… Still will be warm on Monday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s once again…. Next system moves into the area for Tuesday…We will keep the rain alive right through Wednesday morning..Have decided to pull rain from Thursday’s forecast as Models are hinting at drier air and a slower movement of the next system…GFS is still the most rebost model on this system….Like EC better so will run with it…..

***LONG TERM FORECAST FROM APRIL 29TH THROUGH MAY 8TH ***

We start this period on the dry side, however Clouds will be on the increase Late Friday morning early afternoon..By Friday night look for rain to devolve out ahead of a warm front reaching Southeast from a 988 MB low pressure system over Canada.. Saturday the 30th look for a cold front to work Eastwards from the Western MN this will produce showers and maybe a few thunderstorms in the early morning…No severe thunderstorms are forecasted attm as it is way too early to see any severe weather indices…. Sunday May 1st will keep a chance of rain alive as the low pressure slides along the US/Canada border… With the 540 line very close to the FA will keep rain and rain snow mixture in the forecast… This will mainly happen during the night time hrs and early morning hrs Sunday night Monday night….By Tuesday the 3rd this system treks out of the area so a dry Tuesday and Wednesday the 4th on tap….Wednesday night early Thursday the 5th morning have elected to bring rain chances back into the forecast..Will hold this right through Friday the 6th as a low pressure system is forecasted to move right over head Late Friday night into early Saturday morning the 7th system still with us some of the long range models hinting at 0.25 inches of rain to almost 0.50 inches of rain…There may be some snow mixed with the rain on the early morning hrs of Saturday….This system moves out by the afternoon hrs of Saturday… Sunday the 8th looks to be a nice day setting up…There is no way to forecast severe thunderstorms this far out in time... Severe weather indicators only go out to 120 hrs…Then that is pushing it!….

Looking at the temps through the long term forecast cycle…. We start the period with warm conditions ok near norms will feel warm though… Don’t get used to it though by the 3rd we take a nose dive back to below norm temps…

So wetter than normal and much colder than normal is the rule…..

CPC 6 to 10 day outlook keeps us well below normal in the temp dept. With above normal in the precip dept.

Their 8 to 14 day outlook keeps us well below normal in the temp dept and near normal in the precip dept…

For those who don’t understand this or, refuse to believe this…. The long term take the averages of the temps so we could have warm days but over all temps will average out to much below normal…Hope that somewhat clears this up, otherwise I will need to write a book on it…



***YOUR FORECAST***

TONIGHT… Rain likely could mix with some snow flurries late…Lows around 36..Winds East around 10 MPH.

TOMORROW… Rain ending in the morning, otherwise mostly cloudy highs in the upper 40s.Winds becoming North/Northwest around 5 to 10 MPH.

TOMORROW NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy than becoming partly cloudy…Lows in the lower 30s..Winds North/Northwest light.

EASTER SUNDAY… Partly to mostly sunny skies highs upper 50s to lower 60s…West/Southwest wind 5 to 10 MPH…

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy lows in the upper 30s… Low 40s in the Southern areas…

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s…

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNSEDAY…… Mostly cloudy with chances of rain…Highs in upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows in the middle to upper 30s…

WEDNSEDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY…..Cloudy highs lower to middle 50s, lows middle to upper 30s…

FRIDAY… Partly cloudy highs upper 50s to lower 60s…