Saturday, May 14, 2011

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.Updated@7:50 pm

Updated at 7:50 PM  to cut back temps for Sunday night...
Not a lot to talk about in the short term forecast cycle… There are some concerns about a frost/hard frost even a freeze is possible for parts of the FA…..Dry conditions return after today with temps slowly climbing back to near normal by the middle to end of next week, however it will be cold along the shores of Lake Superior as winds remain out of the Northeast for much of the short and middle term forecast….Long term depending on what model you look at it could be wet or dry..Details on that later…


At 8AM on this cold Saturday morning…Temps range from only the lower 40s to middle 40s…Winds out of the North/Northeast from 6 to 14 MPH with gust up to 30 MPH up in Siren, Hayward… All stations are reporting cloudy skies.. EAU is also reporting light rain…Looking at the radar rain is moving into the area from the East… Should see more rain being reported in the next hr…So if it’s not raining at your place yet, give it time it shall be.


Main concern will be the temps through Monday morning… Rain chances today should slowly end as we fly through this Saturday..Nevertheless it will be a blustery raw cold day in the FA.. Temps may not even hit 50 for most of us.. Winds will still remain rather strong today also… Good idea to have plan b ready to put in play…..This evening we will end the rain and should see skies become partly cloudy… Lows going to be tricky… If skies clear soon enough and if winds do become lighter than forecasted we could see some patchy frost….As of right not this does not look to be the case, however something everyone should watch for..Sunday night/Monday morning is what we will have to keep a close on eye as frost and a freeze is looking more likely now for the whole area.….We get a nice long break in the cloudy/rainy spell that we have been locked under for some time now…. Next work week is looking dry, however GFS model does try to bring some rain back into the area for Thursday and Friday…Right now confidence levels are low so will forecast dry for now…


TODAY: cloudy blustery, raw, and cold with showers. Highs 46 to 51.Winds North/Northeast 10 to 20 MPH with gust up to 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Showers ending than becoming partly cloudy winds North/Northeast 10 to 15 MPH. Lows 38 to 41

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Winds North/Northeast 10 to 15 MPH gusts up to 25 MPH… Highs 50 to 55.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear cold lows 27 to 32 frost/freeze likely...Winds becoming light.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: Clear highs 58 to 62 lows 32 to 38 with frost in most areas.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Dry temps ranging from 60 to 65 warming to around 70 by Friday… Lows starting in the upper 30s warming to 50 by Friday.


Differences are showing up in the long term forecasting models which makes the confidence level rather low..Depending on what model you look at it can be dry or it can be wet…Could be cooler or it could be warm….
GFS shows a 1000 MB low pressure system over Southwest MN on sat the 21st and keeps this area of low pressure around right through Thur… Meanwhile EC model has us dry with a ridge of high pressure just to our East/South East… Then if that wasn’t a kicker the differences keep going right through the end of the period timing issues for the next system to move into the area for Sat the 29th and Sunday the 30th ...


SATURDAY MAY 21ST : a chance of showers/storms highs 65-70 lows 50-55.

SUNDAY the 22nd: May see some showers and storms 68 to 73 lows 50 to 55

MONDAY the 23rd THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE 25TH : Off and on chances of showers/storms highs ranging from 65 to maybe as warm as 75. Lows 50 to 60.

THURSDAY THE 26th FRIDAY THE 27th: Will run with dry conditions highs 65 to 70 with lows 50 to 55.

SATURDAY THE 28th THROUGH MONDAY THE 30th: May see some off and on showers and storms highs start off warm 65 to 70 then drop to 55 to 60… Lows 55 to 60 then they drop to 45 to 50 by Tuesday morning….

June looks to be starting on the cold side which really is no surprise as we have been locked into this weather pattern for a very long time