Wednesday, May 18, 2011

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Forecast problems…None for today or tomorrow..Still will keep forecast dry for tomorrow….More active weather pattern sets in starting Friday and last right through much of the middle term and long term forecast cycle…

As you can see from our forecast below we didn’t really change our thinking on much… Temps will still average out slightly below normal for this whole time frame... Still will feel nice though…..


At 9 AM all stations are reporting partly cloudy to sunny skies… Big range of temps…Cold middle 40s along the shores of Lake Superior to the middle to upper 50s elsewhere’s… Winds range from calm to 7 MPH out of the Northeast….Here at the office @ 9:30 AM…Temps 60.9. Humidity is at 41%. Winds Northeast @ 5.5 MPH.. Dewpoint @ 35.7.


FA still locked under a ridge of high pressure….Low pressure systems to our East and to our West…Blocking pattern does show signs of breaking down… In fact tomorrow we will see some clouds move in from the East as a low pressure system moves just about due North out of IN/OH into MI…Moisture is scant over the area so will keep forecast dry….. Our sights then turn to the a complex systems out to the West/Southwest CONUS… This system slowly begins to pull moisture back into the area on Friday..Nam has dewpoints closing in on the lower to middle 50s. GFS on the over hand has dewpoints closer to 60.. Instabilities look rather low for Friday… So still not 100 % on the wagon for thunderstorm possibilities as of right now…. So will not add thunderstorm wording for Friday/Friday night time frame…May even have to pull shower wording for Friday….Will keep thunderstorm wording out of the forecast through much of Saturday, However would not be shocked to see one or two storms fire up in the late afternoon as instabilities start to increase..Saturday night thunderstorms will become more likely..ATTM the storms do not look to be severe….. Sunday we will have to watch…. If the complex of storms and clouds can clear off soon enough… We may be dealing with a few strong storms….May see one or two reach the low severe weather thresholds…To early to tell this early in the game.. Have ran with a chance of showers and storms for Monday then just showers for Tuesday…Temps will be closer to normal for this time of year..Some days may be slightly above normal…Still the average through this time frame will end up slightly below normal….


TODAY/TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 43 to 50. Winds East/Northeast 5 to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 45 to 50. Winds East 5 to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: A chance of showers. Highs 67 to 74. Lows 50 to 55.East Southeast winds 5 to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: showers and possible thunderstorm during the day, Saturday night showers and thunderstorms. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 55 to 60.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: showers and thunderstorm partly cloudy. Highs 70 to 75. Lows 55 to 60.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A chance of showers and storms. Highs 60 to 70. Lows 45 to 55.


This time frame looks to be active with off and on showers and storms…Really is hard to pinpoint the timing this far out in the game as models do disagree with timing and strength of each incoming systems…One thing models are in a good agreement on temps should remain slightly below normal…

Side note to all this is La Nina continues to weaken, however we will still have to deal with cooler than average temps through July….If La Nina keep weaken at its present stage we could need up with near normal temps for the second half of the summer…With a warmer than average fall….


Wed the 25th: I did warm temps on this day over computer model guidance’s… A chance of showers and storms…Highs 60 to 65.lows 40 to 45

THU the 26th: A chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs 60 to 65. Lows 45 to 50.

FRI the 27th: A chance of showers. Highs 55 to 60. Lows 40 to 45.

SAT the 28th: A chance of showers. Highs 60 to 65. Lows 45 to 50.

SUN the 29th: A chance of showers. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 45 to 50.

MON the 30th: Dry. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 45 to 50.

TUE the 31st: Dry. Highs 60 to 65. Lows 45 to 50.

WED June 1st: A chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 45 to 50.

THU the 2nd: Dry. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 50 to 55.

WED the 3rd: A chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs 68 to 74. Lows 50 to 55.


The high was 69.9 @ 3:08 PM the low was 39.7 @ 5:37 AM this morning.
Outdoor humidity
MIN was 26% @ 3:04 PM..Max was 47% @ 11:03 PM.
Maximum winds yesterday was from the Northesat @ 10.2 MPH
No rain….