Tuesday, May 10, 2011

The froecast for Western/Northwestern WI./Severe weather threat(lack of)

Forecast concerns…. Severe thunderstorm threat right through Wednesday evening….Today there is a few  things working against the chances of severe thunderstorms….Will hash that out in minute or two.

Temps are going to be a real pain in the short and middle term periods… Looks like we will drop to below normal once again by the upcoming weekend….


At 8 AM most stations are reporting cloudy skies…Mostly sunny skies being reported at New Richmond and Oseola…Temps middle to upper 50s cold spot is Superior with 43….DPNTS middle to upper 40s…

Winds East 10 to 13 MPH…Higher up around Lake Superior….


This discussion will mainly be focused on the severe weather threat or the lack of it…..

This morning we find a 992 MB low pressure system sitting over East central SD with a warm front now starting to enter Southwest MN, front reaches through Northwest IA down through Central IA…South of the warm front is where we find the real humid air Dpnts in the middle to upper 60s…..Warm front is forecasted to begin to lift Northwards as we head through the day..Cloud cover should give way to partly to mostly sunny skies… This were the problems start to show up….First off how high to go with temps….so of the computer model guidance’s show temps easy hitting 80 plus today… However I just can’t buy into that.. So will run with lower to middle 70s across much of the area, however I would not be shocked to see a few 80s in my far Southern Counties. Using the Duluth NWS WRF model it shows dpnts soaring into the 60s as we head through today this matches up rather well with the NAM model… Middle level jet is forecasted to increase to 55 to 70 KTS as it moves into the FA…This will aid in the devolvement of rather strong deep layer shear…Looks like some type of boundary is setting up over Central MN into IA…The way it appears right as of now looks to be an instability axis….MLCAPE on the NAM and others are showing 2000 to 4000 J/KG in Southern MN and Northern IA with 1500 to 2500 J/KG CAPE in the FA LI is forecasted to be around -2 to -6…Also with SFC heating forming this aid in thunderstorm formation… However we do have a very strong cap forecasted to crank up this afternoon. 700 MB temps are forecasted to soar into the 10c to 12c with convection temps 85 to 95 throughout the area….So these two things will limited the severe weather threat for today over the FA… As the cap weakens after 7 PM showers and thunderstorms should begin to form/push into the area from MN… Some of these storms may be strong to severe, however I still having a hard time buying into this as of now… We shall see though…..Tomorrow looking to be the warmest day of the week if we can break into some sunshine after last night’s convection…Temps should range from the middle to upper 70s….Showers and thunderstorms will still be in the forecast as the low pressure system is still hanging around could be another chance at severe thunderstorms tomorrow evening if the cap weakens….Thinking is once again this would be an overnight event…Thursday have kept temps in the lower to middle 70s to do all the clouds and showers and thunderstorms around….Friday even lowered temps more in the middle 60s….Cold front is forecasted to move through the area, so will keep showers and storms around…. Saturday looks to be a chilly day we may not even make it out of the 50s…With little warming for Sunday…..Temps still below normal for next Monday.

So to recap if severe thunderstorms do fire it will be during the late evening and overnight hrs of tonight and Wednesday morning, then once again Wednesday evening into early thu morning, However will leave the severe wording out for Wednesday night.


TODAY… Slowly becoming partly to mostly sunny, Highs 70 to 75..Winds South/Southeast 10 to 15 MPH.

TONIGHT… Mostly cloudy a chance of showers and thunderstorms, some storms could be strong to severe…Lows 55 to 60.

TOMORROW… Partly cloudy with a chance of morning showers/storms then a chance of showers and storms in the evening highs 73 to 78.

TOMORROW NIGHT… Cloudy showers and thunderstorms, lows upper 50s to lower 60s.

THRUSDAY… cloudy a chance of showers and thunderstorms highs middle 70s.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Cloudy showers lows in the 50 to 55.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT… showers highs 60 to 65. Lows around 50.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT… a slight chance of showers highs 58 to 62 lows middle 40s…

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY…Dry highs 58 to 65, lows lower 40s.


Temp should be near normal with precip below normal through this time frame….

No really big heat waves in the forecast… Could see 80s around the May 24th and the 25th time frame…
Also a side note the one picture of the dead tree was not called into the NWS...I had another tree that was very much alive that was also snapped offed,however the pictures did not turn out...Since is was in the little woods of mine.Will try to get a picture of that today...