Forecast concerns….1. Wet pattern setting up for the weekend and lasting into the early part of the upcoming work week….2. Strong thunderstorms may be possible late Saturday and Sunday afternoon, however the severe weather threat parameters aren’t the best…So will not use severe wording…The stronger updrafts could produce some small hail and gusty winds, along with heavy rain in some spots.
3.Then a big pattern change to set in as Northwest flow once again sets up over the upper Midwest.
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
At 7 AM skies range from Mostly sunny to Cloudy…Temps in the middle to upper 50s…Though cooler along the shores of Lake Superior with upper 40s.Winds from the East/Northeast light..Satellite is showing clouds over taken the FA..Radar is showing an areas of showers and thunderstorms over Southern/Central MN these storms are moving towards the North…Don’t think they will make it into the FA, however my far Western areas may be brushed by a passing shower/storm this morning…
***FORECAST DISCUSSION***
Short term looks to become wet, Will time the start of showers and thunderstorms later this evening…Dry air still holding strong over the FA, So will keep today dry, although there is a risk that some showers could move into the far Western parts of the FA later in the afternoon… Upper level low still holding on to the Easter CONUS, meanwhile High pressure system has moved in the OH/TN Valleys…This will allow for winds to switch to the Southeast which in return will allow for higher dewpoints to creep Northwards… However atmosphere is still rather dry throughout the FA it will take sometime for the atmosphere to become saturated ….Area of low pressure is forecasted to move from Western KS into Southern SD by late tonight/early Saturday morning. Then into ND by Saturday night/early Sunday morning.
Sunday late afternoon/early evening said low still spinning over ND…This will send a frontal boundary through the FA..The 996 MB low is then forecasted to move into far Northern WI/Southern UP of MI…Another stronger cold front will race South out of Canada and should be reaching my far Northern FA Sunday night Monday morning…Tuesday we find a cold 1020 MB high pressure system building in from Canada..This will allow for much colder conditions to return to the area through the rest of the middle term FA…Will also allow for drier conditions to build into the area starting Monday night and last through Thursday…As hinted to last night we have cut temps some of the short term and all of the middle term…
***SHORT TERM & MIDDLE TERM FORECAST***
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70 to 75. Winds becoming Southeast 10 to 15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely.. Lows 50 to 55. Winds Southeast 10 to 15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning, then in later in the afternoon, otherwise cloudy. Highs 65 to 70. Winds Southeast 10 to 20 MPH with gust up to 25 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 50 to 55. Wind 5 to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 68 to 73. Lows 48 to 53.
MONDAY: A chance of showers. Highs 60 to 65.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy early then becoming clear. Lows 35 to 40.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny with highs 55 to 60.. Lows 35 to 40..
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy highs 60 to 65…
Note there may be a few nights/mornings we will have to watch for patchy frost.
***LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION MAY 28th THROUGH JUNE 5TH***
We start time frame on the cool side, However as we work through this cycle we do see temps warming backup a few days could be slightly above normal with a few day getting close to if not into the 80s.. This will be dependant on how fast we can lose the clouds during some of the day, nevertheless this will be a short lived warm up as temps will slowly fall back to below normal…Looking at the CPC 6 to 10 day outlook they are calling for temps to be well below normal…From May 25th through May 29th…. Looking at their 8 to 14 day outlook…Temps are forecasted to be slightly below normal…. So we blended the long range forecasting models and their forecast to reflect this… So over all temps will average out to below normal…. Does look like a another weather pattern through this time frame.
***LONG TERM FROECAST***
FRI MAY 27th: Dry highs 60 to 65. Lows 45 to 50.
SAT MAY 28th : Showers/storms. Highs 55 to 60. Lows 40 to 45.
SUN May 29TH : Morning showers. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 50 to 55.
MON MAY 30th : Dry. Highs 70 to 75. Lows 50 to 55.
TUE MAY 31st : Showers/storms. Highs 75 to 80. Lows 55 to 60.
WED JUNE 1st: Showers/storms. Highs 75 to 80. Lows 55 to 60.
THU JUNE 2nd: Showers/storms. Highs 70 to 75. Lows 50 to 55.
WED JUNE 3rd: Showers/storms. Highs 7- to 75. Lows 50 to 55.
THU JUNE 4th: Dry. Highs 65 to 70. Lows 45 to 50.
FRI JUNE 5th: Dry. Highs 60 to 65 . Lows 45 to 50.
***CLIMATE STATS FOR YESTERDAY***
The stats come from our office…
Yesterday the high was 71.7
Low was 49.3.
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