Last Friday we were talking about a big storm system to effect the FA midweek,system has been pushed back by 12 to 24 hours later...Also last week models had the track more East...Over the last few days the trend has been to move the track more Westwards....So previous forecast will go some major changes.....System still remains a headache,not as bad as one attm.....Fog is another problem for this morning through out parts of the FA....Lots to talk about so lets dive into it....Trying to do this while AM sick is no fun at all!
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
Temps this morning are rather cold upper 20s to lower 30s,under clear skies and light E/SE winds...Fog is being reported in the following areas...EAU,Rice Lake,and Ladysmith...Vis is down to around a 1/4 mile to 1/2 mile is spots(pictures in the following post)...Also fog as created some slick spots on the road ways this morning,mainly over overpasses and bridges...
***SFC ANALYSIS***
This morning we find a trough reaching from the upper Midwest down into TX,this has brought very heavy rainfall to parts of TX and areas of the deep South,while North is has been light off and on rain showers...Meantime our Next weather system is now just pushing onto the West Coast....Weak area of high pressure in control of our Weather.....
***SFC/UPPER LEVEL DISCUSSION***
Weak high pressure will control our weather right through Wed....GFS model shows a 993 MB low over Southern Canada this is forecasted to move along the USA/Canada border and slowly weaken to around 997 MBS by Wed as it is forecasted to be just North of ND..By Thur said low is forecasted to race Northeast into Canada and weaken to around 1010 MBS...The only thing this low will do for us is give us some gusty winds today and bring in warmer air....Meanwhile
Trough out West will be pushed out into the plains as a 175 KT or so upper level winds kick in..Moisture will start to stream back into the FA on a 35 to 40 KT LLJ,however lots of dry air to over come so will keep dry conditions going for Wed..Meantime GFS forms a 991 MB low pressure system over Southern CO and pushes it into the TX/OK Panhandle...From there GFS takes the low into NW IA Friday and weakens the low to around 1002 MBS...By Sat the low is well into Canada and phases with said low from above and deepens the system to around 979 MBs or so....ECMWF model has the same idea but keeps the low rather stronger as it moves NE through Western MN,ECMWF also shows this low phasing with the Northern Low in Canada...Low then deepens to around 975 or so further South than GFS has it phasing...What has become interesting with this system is both models show CAA kicking in faster and stronger for Fri into Sat.If this does play out rain could mix with snow or even change over to all snow for late Fri into Sat....Thur into Thur night may see one or two thunderstorms around as LIS drop to near 0c..Best chance of this I feel will come to my Eastern areas of the FA...Still really not to thrilled about this as a rainy/cloudy day on tap for Thru,however both models do try to show a dry slot working in,if we can get some sunshine then I can see some thunderstorm activity around the area...For now will leave it out of the forecast,as this dis. has it covered if it does happen.5 day QPF totals from the 27 through Nov 1 are showing 0.75 to 1.00 inches of rain...After this system passes by look for temps to be back near the norms for this time of year...No other big storm systems in sight attm....
***TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY***
Weak area of high pressure will ensure the FA a very nice two days...Fog this morning in said areas above should be burning off around the 8 AM to 9 AM hr....Temps today through out the entire FA lower to middle 50s under mostly sunny skies,and Southerly winds....Wind could gust up to 20 MPH at time today mainly in my Central and Northern areas.Tonight temps should be warmer than last night with lows in the lower 30s North/Central to middle 30s South under mostly clear skies and SE winds remaining around 5 to 10 MPH,Fog should not be an issue with drier air mixing down from the upper levels...Wednesday we shall see our last rain free day...Under PC to mostly cloudy skies temps should have no problem reaching the lower to middle 50s across the FA..
***WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY***
As the above said low moves Northeast rain will start to move North into the area,,,Have placed higher chances in my Southern areas and lowered chances as we work Northwards...Nevertheless the entire FA will be under cloudy skies and SE winds reaming up lows should stay in the 40s,with upper 40s South....Rainy day on tap for Thur as the low moves off to our West...Temps still rather warm highs in the middle 50s...Thur night looks to be a rainy one,this will depend if a dry slot does form,for now will bank on it not happen....Lows Thru night middle 40s North lower 50s Central and South..Fri will see yet more rain for the area highs in the lower 50s North/Central and middle 50s South....
***FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY***
CAA kicks in behind a cold front this could mix the rain with snow as heights drop,however attm this does not look good for any accumulations,,We will watch it though as models show stronger CAA than before....Either way still look for wet conditions...Lows in the upper 30s Fri night and lowers 40s for highs on Sat....Warmer in my Southern areas.....
***SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY***
Back to dry weather conditions which will be needed..Highs both days under mostly sunny skies in the middle to upper 40s with lows either side of 30....
Pop Pop Heaven
4 years ago
