Western/Northwestern forecast

Forecast remains on track rather well....Not to many changes needed...This upcoming work week we will still see temps below their normal values...No surprise there...The forecast problems will be clouds and temps today with rain chances...Monday through Wednesday more rain....Snow chances by Friday night...Let try to break this down into a details....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

This early morning temps are in the middle 40s through out the entire FA...Skies are clouds...So light rain has been noted up in our Northern areas,Radar confirms the SFC OBS...Winds are light to calm....

SFC ANALYSIS...

1005 MB low pressure centered over far Northeast Lake Superior this morning with what appears to be one last trof diving South....Meanwhile our next system of interests is now centered over Eastern NV..This system is a little deeper on today model runs than yesterdays..Low pressure is down to around 990 MBS or close to there...We find a rather large areas of 1018 MB high pressure sitting over the MS/AL areas..In the upper levels we still find the FA locked under a NW flow aloft....Back to our next system to effect the area...NAM and GFS morning analysis are rather close in placement of the low pressure area..Though the ECMWF model has the best handle on this system....GFS and NAM are slowly coming on board...However will use ECMWF model for the finer details with other models blending into the mix....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

Will keep clouds around as the low pressure system off to our NE will still drawn moisture down from Lake Superior...Sure would not be shocked to see some scattered rain showers from time to time,mainly over our Central and Northern areas...Highs today should top off in the upper 40s North to around 50 Central,and lower 50s South...Tonight low pulls far enough away to take the rain chances out of the FA...Lows tonight fall into the upper 30s through out the entire FA...Still will keep clouds around as on low moves away and we begin to feel the effect of the next low....

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT....

I have threw NAM right out the window as it wants to take the low pressure just to our West right over the MN/WI border....ECMWF and GFS...Though I feel GFS is still slightly more West and weaker with the low...ECWMF take the low pressure and move it NE towards Southern WI GFS and has the low to around 997 MBS by time it reaches Southern WI by Tuesday night...GFS on the other hand has it down to around 1003 MBS then deepens the low to around 995 MBS by Tuesday night as it reaches NW WI..Will throw out GFS's track as it seems to still be off...ECWMF is the model of choice here..Do think over the next few runs GFS will latch onto ECWMF...Either way moisture will be brought back into the area...INSTBY is null once again so will keep thunderstorms out of the FCST...Thinking still is this system won't give us the rainfall amounts as seen with the last system,nonetheless still much needed rain on it's way...Monday our far Northern areas may see the sun break out from time to time before the rain moves in that area towards the evening hrs....Highs on Monday should be right around 50° Lows Monday night with rain in the lower 40s...Heights will be to warm for snow Monday night....Tuesday looks to be rainy day across the entire FA with highs in the the lower 50s North and Central..Our Southern area could hit the middle 50s..Lows on Tuesday night in the upper 30s to lower 40s....

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.....

A dry period with highs in the lower 50s North to and lower to middle 50s Central while our Southern areas bask under the the middle to upper 50s....Lows shall range from the middle 30s to around 40....A better chance at seeing the suns through this time frame as an area of weak high pressure moves in....

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.....

Another system on the docket for this time frame....Should not be has strong as the last 2 that effected the area....However still will see some rain showers....As of right now the best areas to see this would be the Central and Northern areas....Friday night heights fall and we could see the rain mix with and some areas change over to all light snow showers.....Best areas to see snow mixed with the rain and or just all light snow showers should be from Rice Lake and points North of there....Saturday should see just all rain,however in the morning hrs still could see some snow mixed in....Highs on Friday lower to middle 50s North and Central,upper 50s in our Southern areas....Lows Friday night lower to middle 30s North and Central areas to the upper 30s in the Southern areas....Saturday still some rain showers around with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.....

LONGER TERM...(OCT 12 THROUGH OCT 20)

As you all know last night both Paul and I had hard time taking in what the models were saying in this time frame,as a few wanted to bring in a big warm up while other did not....Am still having some what of a hard time buying into all of this,however the trend is showing up a tad better ...Got to low
Well this morning runs are back to the colder trend once again....Monday the 12 looks like we could see more snow showers through the area as the 540 line is well to the South and West..Still may see some rain/snow showers around the area for the 13 and early on the 14...After that things dry out from the 15 through 16....Another system does take aim on the FA for the 16 that should be all rain as the heights warm back up....on the 18 or 19 we will have to keep an eye on a system that will try to tap into the cold air once again..Thinking attm is that rain will change over to snow,however the change will happen after the system is off to our East so no big snows from this one..However Eastern areas of WI may see some snows...This system does need to be watch over the next week....It may or may not happen...Get ready for a roller coast of a ride in the temps dept.....Is all I can say right now......

SIDE NOTE.....

The longer term forecast can and will most likely change...This long term forecast is in no way shape or form written in stone,and should not be taken as that way....There are way to many things that can go wrong with long term outlook...To be frank with everyone after 3 days out things get to be iffy....However we here at The Weather Center strive to bring you the best forecast as we can....With all the remarks and emails we do get and watching our verifications we feel we do this rather well...We do stick our heads on the chopping block way sooner than other forecasting sites, which as put us in the leading forecasting sites for the area,as most of our viewers wrote us.....Paul S will have a write up on this tonight the way it sounded last night after going though about 100 emails....We do thank each and everyone of our viewers...By all means we are not bragging just going on what our viewers are saying and what our verifications are showing...