Will try to get through this,as Am still sick.....Forecast problems for today through Saturday....Rain chances along with a few thunderstorms,heavy rainfall is possible.Winds tonight and Friday could become strong..Then snow chances Friday night into Saturday...Lots to talk about this forecast cycle.....
***CURRENT CONDITIONS***
This morning we find temps rather warm,from the middle 40s to the lower 50s....Warm spot is found in Siren with 56° the cool spot is Ashland coming in at 44°....Thinking the Siren station is having some problems compared to the rest of the stations....Dewpoints have rose into the middle to upper 40s across the FA...There is some fog around the area...Stations that are reporting fog are as follows...Ladysmith,New Richmond,Rice Lake,and Osceola...Winds range from calm to around 10 MPH from the E/SE....Radar is showing some returns through out the FA,however ATTM nothing is being reported in the SFC OBS....
***SFC ANALYSIS***
SFC charts this morning shows a features of interests...First one being a 1009 MB low pressure system centered over Central Manitoba Canada...Stationary front reaches from said low down through Eastern ND and SD into NE....The main area of interest this morning is a 999 MB low pressure system over Southern KS along with a 1002 MB low over CO with yet another low pressure over TX....Meanwhile we find a 1022 MB high pressure system centered over the OH Valley....
***SFC/MID/ UPPER LEVEL DISCUSSION***
Looking at the 500 MB chart....The upper level low is centered over New Mex this morning..50 to 60 KTS jet kicking into the area this morning from the Southwest...As this upper level low moves North/Northeast upper level jet is forecasted to increase to 125 to 150 KTS over the area...Looking at the 300 MB charts we find the upper level low a little more West and North,however winds at this level flowing into the FA around 80 KTS winds are forecasted to increase to around 150 KTS by Fri afternoon from the SW....Meantime the 850 MB charts showing winds from the South at 20 to 25 KTS this morning as we head into this afternoon winds increase to 35 to 40 KTS from the South/Southeast...So rather strong upper level support in place with this storm system....At the SFC using the GFS/ECMWF/NAM....Did do some blending for this forecast...Models have trended with a more South track than before and slower in moving the storm system....
However this really has not changed things to much...Big change is the dry slot that was forecasted to shut down the rain for tonight should be shunted off to the East of the FA,meaning higher rain chances for the area tonight into Fri....
SFC low is forecasted to lift NE into the Central Plains by this evening/tonight....By time 06z Fri hits the low should be in SW MN and should be around 993 MBS..By 12z said low should be in West Central MN(around the hump area) MBS drop to around 990-992..This low will also push an occluded front into my Western/Southern FA By 00z Sat said low races for the NE part of MN/Western Lake Superior..This will have pushed said front through the entire area....Meanwhile a cold front will be working it's way through the FA...Low pressure is forecasted to deepen to around 984 MBS by this time...The track of this system is still somewhat in the air still..PWATS do increase to around 1.00" to as high as 1.50" Thinking as of right now this may be a little high,nevertheless still look for areas of heavy rainfall,thinking is to run with a widespread 1/2" to 1.00" of rain a few areas could see more with any thunderstorms....Speaking of thunderstorms....With LLJ forecasted to become stronger and destabilization forecasted by this afternoon,along with LIS down to 0....Should see a few thunderstorms through out the day into this evening.....Temps will be mild through Fri morning and then should be dropping through out the day......
***FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS***
Today rain will become likely under cloudy skies winds from the SE from 5 to 10 MPH with gusts up around 20 MPH.Highs today around 50...Tonight rain likely temps holding if not going up a degree or two 50 to 52...South/Southeast winds around 10 MPH with gust up to 20 MPH..
Friday a chance of showers with temps slowly falling through out the day highs start in the 50s falling to the middle 40s by late afternoon.Winds becoming SW/W around 10 to 15 MPH with gust up to around 20 MPH..Friday night cloudy with a chance of rain/snow showers become all snow showers after midnight...Lows in the 30s...West winds around 10 to 15 MPH with gusts around 20 to 25 MPH...Sat shall remain cloudy with highs around 40 Sunday rain and snow showers move back into the area..With all snow showers Sunday night with lows right around 30....
***FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS***
Today cloudy with showers and few thunderstorms likely SE winds 10 to 15 MPH with gusts around 20 MPH..Highs today in the lower to middle 50s..Tonight rain likely maybe a thunderstorm early...Lows around 50 with S/SE winds around 15 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH...Friday Cloudy windy highs in the middle 50s then falling through out the day,there is a chance of rain showers through out the day...S/SW winds 15 to 20 MPH with gust from 25 MPH to around 30 MPH..Friday night cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers becoming all snow showers after midnight...Lows in the 30s still gusts winds,up to 20 to 25 MPH...Saturday cloudy highs lower 40s. lows in the lower 30s once again...Sunday..PC in the Northern Central areas with PC to mostly sunny rest of the area,highs in the lower to middle 40s with lows in the lower to middle 30s.....
***FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS***
Today..Showers and a few thunderstorms likely highs under cloudy skies in the middle to upper 50s with E/SE winds 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 20 MPH..Tonight lows in the middle 50s with showers and a few thunderstorms likely..Winds 15 to 20 MPH with gust from 20 to 25 MPH..Friday a chance of showers with cloudy skies.Winds S/SW from 10 to 20 MPH with gust around 25 to 30 MPH.Highs start out in the upper 50s then fall through out the day..Friday night,a chance of rain and snow showers with lows in the middle 30s winds still rather gusty...SW/W from 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH...Saturday,mostly sunny with highs in the middle 40s with lows in the upper 30s....
***EXTENDED FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY***
Look for a dry period..May see some rain/snow showers in my Northern areas on Monday dry elsewhere's look for highs ranging from Lower 40s North to lower to middle 40s Central and middle to upper 40s South...Lows in the middle to upper 20s North to upper 20s to lower 30s Central to around 30 South....
Pop Pop Heaven
4 years ago
