Thursday, October 8, 2009

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI.

Problems with this forecast will be snowfall and points to were the best chance of snow shall fall....Temps are cut and dry so will leave them alone....Then another chance of snow coming in around Sunday night into Monday.....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

***ONCE AGAIN NO TIME FOR CURRENT SFC OBS***

SFC ANALYSIS....

Cold front came through right on track...997 MB low pressure is over Canada and moving East this pushed the cold front into Central WI as satellite/SFC OBS shows...Matches up rather well on the SFC charts also...Meanwhile a 1004 MB low pressure is over SW NE this is forecasted to move East....Our main system of interests is still way up in the Yukon however this will be moving SE to around the Alberta this afternoon....This system is forecasted to be in North/South DA....Meanwhile a 1023 MB high pressure is forecasted to move into the area tonight and Friday....

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.....

Low pressure over NE is forecasted to move East...Thinking still remains the same in terms of rain down in my Southern FA....However will have to run with a few more clouds in my Central areas,as this system will be a tad more North than in yesterday's forecast still PC wording should be ok....Will keep PS wording in my North zones....Highs today will be cooler with upper 40s through out the FA..Lows tonight fall into the upper 20s North lower 30s Central and middle 30s South..Friday the FA will be under the high pressure system so look for MS to PC skies through out the FA....Highs in the in the middle to upper 40s through out the FA.....Friday night....GFS/NAM models have slowed down the next system moving SE...While ECMWF is still the fastest....Am going to keep snow chances going for Friday night,However will push it back to very late Friday night into Saturday morning....Lows Fri night upper 20s......

SATURDAY.....

With the slower trends in the most of the models I have blended the two major players....Will add snow chance for Sat to account for this....Here is where things get tricky..Snow should reach my FA by 06-12z Saturday...Profiles do show all snow...Moisture is lacking with this system,however very nice forcing is showing up...As the way it looks right now the most intense snows will be points to the North of a Balsam Lake over to Barron then over to Bruce.....The Northern edge of this intense band of snow would be points South of Siren,Spooner,and Winter.....As far as accumulations go will run with a dusting to as much as an inch of snow some areas may pick up 2 inches if the band of snow lasting longer than forecasted in said areas....While the rest of the FA may see a dusting of snow...Ground is still warm so this will hold down snow totals...Also this system is on the move at a rather fast clip...Highs in the upper 30s with lows in the middle to upper 20s...

Will have a more detailed forecast tonight or tomorrow morning.....Plus a look ahead....