Updated forecast

Updated forecast looks better if you hate snow....Drier air over WI has caused a shift of the heavy snow band/precip band well into MN.As well as the SCF low tracking even more West that forecasted yesterday..After looking at the model data over the last few hours,thinking is the heavy snow will be staying over in MN...My WI areas should see mixed precip and light snow...So the maps for the most part will remain the same,however one will need to cut the snowfall total down to less than an inch(maybe an inch at best) through out much of the FA..Farther North 2 to 6 inches may be possible,Mainly North of a Minong to Webster and to North of a Hayward line Northern Barron,Polk and Rusk Counties may see 1 to 3 inches of snow before it all ends...Central Parts of said Counties maybe 1 to 2 inches,While the Southern parts of these Counties may not see much in the way of snow as it looks like a longer period of rain..The rain will take the longest in those areas to change over to snow....
Still not real confidence at snowfall totals at all for my WI FA...To many things pointing against it attm...May also see a thunderstorm or two in my WI areas....Nevertheless the forecast for MN still right on track,and it is verifying

Type of precip and where it could fall...

The map above shows the precip types...I did use the GRLEVEL2 radar map,which by the way GRLEVEL 2 is one of the best radar programs on the market....Ok that said let me break this down....

The light blue shaded areas is where mainly all snow is going to fall...

The dark blue shaded areas is where mainly all snow,however some mixed precid can't be ruled out...Mainly so light sleet and some FRN rain

Red shaded areas will see more mixed precip,along with more snow...

Pinkish shaded areas have the best chance at seeing mixed precip..in the form of FRN rain sleet,rain,and snow...

Yellow shaded areas should see more rain,and mixed precip of Rain.FRN rain,light snow,and maybe some sleet thrown in from time to time....

This will all depend on the out come of the track of the storm..Models still showing some interesting things..So this still all could change by tonight..

Snowfall Forecast...

The map above is the Weather Center's forecasted amounts....Wide range of amounts..With a very sharpe cut off of the heavy snow in oue Southern areas...Cut off to the heavy snow runs through Central Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties...Them areas should see more mixed precip that points North of there...Will have a map out showing where all that will be shortly.....

Satellite image

Her is interesting satellite image....Yellowish lines point towards snow...Red lines point to Ice on a few lakes and Ice chunks on Lake Superior..Blue lines mark the cloud areas....Click on map to enlarge...

My HWD

This HWD is for the whole forecast area.......
***MAJOR WINTER STORM***
Low pressure is forecasted to kick out of the CO area on Monday and move towards the area...Latest computer model runs have the track of the low through SW WI through our Eastern WI Counties...This track as of right now would produce an area of heavy snow through out much of the FA...Right now it appears the best areas to pick up close to or over 12 inches of snow would be from SW of Brainerd through Duluth and points just NW of there....Elsewhere's...6 to as much as 12 inches will be possible in my MN Counties...Over in WI 4 to 10 inches will be possible...The more North one heads the better the chance at seeing the high end of the forecasted snowfall amounts...The NWS has posted winter storm watch for most of the FA,however my Southern Counties of WI..Barron,and Rusk are clear from the watch attm....I do think the NWS will issue a winter storm watch for them Counties some time today....Some mixed precip is also possible in my WI Counties..Left it out of the forecast though..As this track is really not set in stone yet.....This storm system will also pack a nice punch of wind....Winds could gust well over 25 MPH...I don't think we will see the 30 MPH winds with this system as it will be slowly weaken as it moves through,and models aren't showing it either...Nevertheless winds that strong will produce blowing and drifting snow.This will lead to poor visibilities,along with near blizzard conditions from time to time...If you must travel from Monday night through Tuesday night make sure you still have you winter safety kit in you vehicle...If you become stuck stay with your vehicle and wait for help...Stay tuned to you local media and the NWS for the latest updates on this major winter storm set to slam the FA....Also keep it here we will update as much as we can....

***Major Winter storm***(my AFD)

This AFD will focus on the major winter storm the is forecasted for the FA....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps this morning starting of cold once again single digits up North and middle teens to lower 20s Central and Southern area...Most areas reporting clear skies over in WI partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies rule


SFC ANALYSIS......

This morning's weather map show area of high pressure over the FA...We see out trouble maker now digging into the MT/ID area...Well get right to that..

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.....

High pressure will remain in control of our weather For the most part will keep things dry for most of the forecast area,However on Monday did bring in light snows through our Southern and Central zones of MN and most of my WI zones....

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT....

The NWS does have a winter storm watch out for most of the FA...Only the far Southern zones of WI are clear form this watch attm,however my thinking is the NWS will issue a winter storm watch for those areas by late afternoon..
ECMWF and GFS for the part are seeing eye to eye on this winter storm to pound the FA...987 MN low is forecast to be in NE CO Late tonight early tomorrow morning...Said low is than forecasted to lift Northeast towards into SW IA on Monday..From there the low is than excepted to move into SW WI than Northeast through our Eastern zones....This track will lay down a very good area of heavy snow for most of the FA...It does appear right now my MN zones will see the from 6 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts...My WI zones should see a range of 4 to 10 inches of snow..Here the highest snow amounts as of right now would occur the farther North you go...This system will also bring strong winds with it....Winds could reach up to 26 to 28 MPH might even be high,will depends on where the low ends up going,either way this will cause blowing and drifting snow,along with near blizzard conditions from time to time....

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.....

System moves out of the area,weak high pressure build in,however will keep off and on light snow/flurries alive as CAA wrings out what little moisture is left....Another storm system for the weekend or early next week..No time to deal with that one right now,but it could be a big one also....Models still all over the place with it......

My AFD

Forecast problems...Temps,possible late winter storm/early spring storm for Monday night through Tue night..

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps this morning across much of my Northern MN zones have dropped into the single digits and a few stations falling below zero...While in my WI zones where clouds held on through out much of the over night hours temps are in the lower 20s upper teens..Skies for the most part have cleared out in my MN zones,however some stations still showing clouds and a few flurries...In my WI zones Clear to cloudy skies are showing up in the SFC OBS..

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning's weather map features a major winter storm centered over OK/AR..Large area of High pressure from Hudson Bay Canada into my FA..Mean time we find our trouble maker now make erodes into the Northwestern States....

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY....

Strong major winter storm is forecasted to move out of OK/AR towards the Northeast..By 00z Sunday said low should be over SW IL...996 MB low is forecasted to keep moving NE into NE IN and into MI....Between this low pressure and the high pressure...Both have severed to bring much colder air into the FA,where skies did have a chance to clear out temps drop to near zero over night...So with that in mind,I have decided to cut model guidance's a few degrees...I will keep LES going over our snow belts of WI for today as fetch still seems reasonable...Will keep rest of the forecast period dry as high pressure slowly moves out of the FA....

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI.....

Here is where things get rather interesting....Strong major winter storm is forecasted by all models to take shape over CO as energy dive SE from the NW States...996 MB low pressure should form in the NE part of CO Monday....This low is than forecasted to really crank up with it's mean pressure dropping to around 994 MBS as it pushes into SW IA late Monday night/early Tuesday....Said low is than forecasted to transverse across central WI towards the UP of MI...This track would keep all of the FA in snow...However there are some indications that some rain could be mixed in in our WI zones...For now I left it all snow,as there are few thing that just don't match up well just yet....If I was to put my neck on the chopping block and say how much snow...Right now I would run with a range of 4 to 8 inches across a good real estate of my FA...That is still up in the air at this point in time.....For the rest of the this forecast cycle will keep some light snow alive...Models are not seeing eye to eye on what may very well end up being another snowstorm for the FA late in the week/weekend...Will just leave this at that for now and will try to hash that out in tomorrow's updated forecast...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.....

Models hinting at another possible snowstorm for the parts of the FA mainly our SE part of my MN zones into my WI zones for Monday/Tuesday's time frame...Meanwhile high pressure is forecasted to make camp over the FA for the upcoming weekend...
On Sunday we will see a 992 MB low over TX/OK panhandle areas...This low is forecasted to move NE into Western MO then lows moves into NE IL just North of the Windy City..While it does this thing bombs out to around 989 MBS....If indeed this track pans out parts of the FA will be dealing with another major winter storm as this system will also have enough cold air to work with..GFS has the storm tracking right through WI so if GFS is right the whole FA could see a winter storm....Looks like a winter weather pattern than a spring pattern....

Cold and snowy forecast

Forecast concerns...Very cold air mass,two possible snow storms for the area...Everyone in the Northwood have been asking me over the past week now...Where is spring ? People in the Southern plains Will also be asking the same question...Weather pattern through out much of the CONUS sure does look like a winter one,sure not a spring one...This has been forecasted by my staff,and myself through out late Feb into early Mar,so it should really come as no big shock...Everyone is starting to get grumpy as we all await for warmer temps...When will that happen...We shall see here soon......Lots to hash out so let dive right into it....

CURRENT CONDITIONS......

Looking at the SFC OBS this morning we see temps are starting of in middle teens with a few areas hitting the lower 20s...Here at the office we are at 14.3° Skies range from clear to mostly cloudy..Some spotty light flurries being reported at a few of the stations....

SFC ANALYSIS......

This morning's weather map we find a few areas of interest...First off we find a 1031 MB high pressure reaching from just West of Hudson Bay Canada down into Northern WY...Cold front that dived through the are over night is now Reaching from the windy City back through Central MO then reaching into the TX panhandle where we run into a 994 MB low pressure system...What is interesting is this storm system is forecasted to bring snow to much of Northern TX and through out OK,then through out the OH and TN Valleys,along with parts of the Great Lakes area....

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.....

TROF sliding through my FA will keep clouds alive through out the day may still see a flurries off and on mainly this morning before drier air moves into the FA...Cloud cover will hold temps down in the low 30s once again today....Tonight 1022 MB high pressure builds into the area....Still should see mostly cloudy skies,however skies should slowly start clear out as we move into the morning hours...Temps fall back into the middle to upper teens...Saturday the FA should be enjoying lots of sunshine with temps in the middle to upper 30s..Lows in the lower 20s..Both highs and lows are still below norms for this time of year..Sunday FA still under the high pressure system so mostly sunny skies temps do warm to the upper 30s to low 40s...Still not where they should be yet...Low Sunday night fall back into the lower 20s....Lets talk about the major winter storm that had our name all over last weekend,but now will stay well to the South....
997 MB low is forecasted to move from North Central TX into Northern AR then push Northeast into far SW IN,from there the low is forecasted to move Northeast into South Central MI then into Northeast MI right through the thumb area...This system has enough clod air to lay down a good solid snow pack just North and Northwest of the track..This will also be a very windy system...Anyone with travel plans into and through that area should listen to more updates on this forming major winter storm..This system should effect Southeastern WI whereas much as 8 inches or more of snow could fall.....Ok back to my FA...This system may spread some high to mid level clouds into the area,nothing more than that.....

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.....

Lets start off with temps since that will be easy...Temps still forecasted to be colder than norms through out this time frame..Highs in the 30s to lower 40s with lows in the lower to middle 20s...Ok now on to the hard part.....What I find very remarkable is that GFS and ECMWF models are for the most part agreeing on the track of another major winter storm.Though I feel GFS is more West than it should be,So I have decide to blend the two models.Leaned more in line with the thinking of the ECMWF model,as this has been the model of choice all winter and so far into this early spring..This one has it's eyes set on my FA...Finer details....We find a 987 MB low pressure taking shape over the Northeastern part of CO...Though ECMWF has been very bullhead in the strength from the get go,I still feel the start of this system is to strong...Nevertheless this won't matter much in our forecast....The low is forecasted to move into Southeastern part of NE then into Southern WI,as it moves into WI this low should be around 994 MBS....System has enough cold air to produce heavy snow through out my FA Tuesday into Wednesday's time frame...No April fools day joke I may add.....May be dealing with thundersnow also has LIS increase to around the 0c mark and Cape increases to around 250 to 400 J/KG..Over my Central and Southern forecast areas...System still close enough to the area on Thurs to give us some backwash light snow/flurries ....

LONGER TERM (FRIDAY APR 3 THROUGH SUN APR 12).....

Temps start this period below climatologically norms...No shock there is it?....Will it warm up we shall find out later...
By Sat we will be watching a clipper like system moving into the area for late Sat into Sun...This system has enough cold air to produce all snow...By 00z Tue we see a deep area of low pressure over Northern MO We will have to keep an eye on this system...SFC temps showing around the 32 while the 700 MBS temp around -9c If this is the case we may be dealing with an ice storm before switching over to all snow on Tuesday as colder air gets pulled back into the area...Still some problems this far out,nonetheless something we will need to watch...Ok so the big question is...Well spring shows it's face ?.....Well no it won't temps are forecasted to remain well below norms for this time of year through this time frame......

So temps remain below norms through this entire forecast cycle with above precip,which looks like it will fall in the form of snow for the most part.....

Thunderstorms days for far this year.

Here is month by month break down of thunderstorm days so far this year of 09...

Jan...We saw no thunderstorms...

Feb..We had two thunderstorm days,along with thundersnows...
First day was Feb 9th,This was the first thunderstorm of the year...
The second day was Feb 26th..We had more thunderstorms roll through the area...

Mar...So far we had two thunderstorm days...
Mar 23 around 10 or 11PM we had thundserstorms move through the are...Then the following day Mar 24 we had more thunderstorms move through the area..Highly unlikely we will see more this month....
How does this stack up to last year so far you ask...Well yes I will tell you...
Last year 08...Jan through through Mar no thunderstorms to report...
So far in o9 we are 4 days up from 08...
I will have updates on the thunderstorm days close or the end of each month,also will compair that to last year 08..To see how many thunderstorms we get this year..I will also keep track of the watches issued for this area along with warning,however with the warnings I will not say a word about it unless I see severe thunderstorms myself of my chase team reports them to me,as there may be a warning and really there is no severe weather going on..So will I will discharge the radar warnings...Good news is with the new hail size warnings taking place April 1st, this year we should see a drop in severe thunderstorm warnings..

Wind damage.

Here are some pictures of the damage from the windy storm system that pounded the area with winds up to 50 MPH through out the area...The tree you see above is about 8 inches in dim....I had other trees/branches also snapped off...Was a fun system..Ended up getting 1 inch of rain here,with thunderstorms...Which I will have a post about thunderstorm days next..

Email fixed..Forecast...

SIDE NOTE BEFORE FORECAST....

I see my email system is working now...I did get emails from the last two days...So whatever was wrong is fixed now...
Now on to the forecast discussion....

Forecast concerns....Arctic air...Snow chances........Below norm temps keep a coming...

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps in the middle 20s at this hour with some upper 20s found through out the FA...SFC OBS and radar showing some light snow/flurries across the FA..Winds have become more West as a cold front pushed through the last few hours,wind should become Northwest by mid afternoon...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

The power house storm system that has been effecting the area is now North of Lake Superior..Cold front reaches down from said low into Southeastern WI that back through IA into NE then out into WY...Meanwhile we find a developing storm system over the Southwestern states...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

Some of us have awoke to a dusting of snow on the ground this morning...
Low pressure North of Lake Superior and it's associated trof will keep skies cloudy along with a chance at some light snow/flurries going through out much of the FA.....No snow accumulation is forecasted....Temps will remain below norms...With highs today and Friday in the lower to middle 30s...Lows for tonight and Friday night upper teens to lower 20s should work out fine....One good thing is winds today will be lighter than they have been..

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT....

The snow storm that could have been won't be as upper level flow will keep the system well to our South and Southeast....
Latest ECMWF shows a 994 MB low pressure moving into TX on Friday...Low is forecasted to move into Southeast OK by Saturday....What is interesting about this thermal profiles show a rain/snow mix over Northern TX into OK. By 00z Saturday..Unreal for this time of year for folks in the South...Anyway back to the matter at hand....Low is forecasted to eject Northeast into Central IL by Sunday...System to far South to give my FA any amount of snow.GFS is on the same page,as far as the track of this winter storm.Some light snow/flurries will be possible though....High on Saturday still below norms..Middle 30s ...Lows Saturday night in the lower 20s seem to be plausible...

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....

Not much to talk this day...Mostly clear skies are on the table with warmer temps..Upper 30s..Sunday night the FA will still be dominated by weak high pressure...So partly to clear skies shall rule...Lows still on the cold side with lower 20s a good bet...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.....

Things get more interesting for my FA during this time frame...Monday we see a 991 MB low pressure getting it's act going over Eastern CO/Western KS..Low is forecasted to move to the Northeast and be centered Northern MO by Tuesday....Said low tracks to Southeastern WI on Tuesday night/Wednesday per ECMWF,Meanwhile GFS keeps this system more North and west,as low right over my FA...So still lots of quotations that will need to be answered over the next few days..This does have the possibility of becoming a major snow storm for the area.....

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

FA should be under a high pressure system so a break in the action,though it may very well be shorted lived..Details below...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.....

We will be watching yet another storm system moving into the area.....ECMWF model show a 982 MB low pressure over KS...Though I think that may be overdone.....Said low is forecasted to lift Northeast towards SW IA by Sunday...Than through Central WI Sunday night into Monday....GFS model is also showing the same track..System has penalty of cold air to work with..So another possible winter storm on it's way.....

To sum it all up...Cold and wet period through out the forecast area...Everyone will still be asking where is spring.....

All kinds of things in the forecast a must read.

Forecast problems....Winds,temps,rain,thunderstorms,and last but least snow chances..Possible major winter storm by weeks end into the upcoming weekend...Lots to hash out so lets get right to it...

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps at this 7AM hour range from the upper 20s to middle 30s across our FA..Winds are from the East around the 5 to 10 MPH range with some stations reporting gusts up to 20 MPH....Radar showing a few returns over Northern Cass County into Itasca County..This area is heading to the East...Don't think it will get much farther than said area do to dry Easterly winds off of Lake Superior...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning's charts we find a strong 1040 MB high pressure over Southern Hudson Bay area,this has kept a dry Easterly wind in our far Northeastern areas of MN,and allowed for temps to drop in a few spots to bottom out below zero...Frontal boundary that came trough late yesterday is now a stationary front,which is sitting over Southern WI and MN than extends back toward the Northwest to a 998 MB low pressure system over Eastern MT.....

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.....

Strong high pressure over Canada will keep Easterly wind flowing off Lake Superior today this will allow for our Northeastern area to remain partly cloudy as drier air keeps clouds at bay up there....Meanwhile If clouds have not increase at you local area they shall do so this morning....As we get back into a return flow once again...WAA has already began to kick in through out much of the area....Low pressure over MT will be kicked Northeast into Canada By 00z Mon...We will see another low pressure take shape over CO this should be running in the 992 MB range at said time...By 12z Mon said low will have deepen to around 986 MBS as it pulls Northeast into Southwestern NE..This will shoot a warm front North into MN ..So rain is good bet Mon...I have decide to keep a chance of FZRA for my Northeastern part of MN with winds still coming out the lake and moisture flowing Northwards...Arctic air remains trapped in that area for Mon and Mon night....Rest of the FA should be mild temps with highs in the middle 50s despite the cloud cover on Monday and once again Tuesday....By 00z Tue 992 MB low is forecasted to be over Northern NE ..Warm and moist are flowing Northward should produce showers and thunderstorms over the whole FA...Still having a hard time buying into thunderstorms way up North,but all models are pointing to it so will run with it for now...Lapse Rates increase to around 6 C/KM by 18z Tue...Through out much of our Southern and central areas,bit lower in our Northern areas of MN...LIS ranging from 0 to -1..Looks like elevated thunderstorms will be possible mainly Monday night through Tuesday early evening...Parts of far Western MN zones could be dealing with heavy rainfall amounts 1" plus possible while the rest of the FA should see a good dump of rain...up to 3/4 inches possible...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....

Cold front plows through the area this will change the rain over to all snow for late Tue night into Wed...As of right now best areas to pick up a few inches would be in out Northwestern/Northern areas of MN..Elsewhere's only light snow....Now our attention Turns to what good be a major winter storm for late in the week and into the first part of the weekend....We see a 996 MB low pressure taken shape over the CO/OK areas on Wed night/Thu time frame...All models bring this system Northeast rather fast right through Central WI...If that track works out this would put the much of the FA into a heavy snow event thermal profiles and 850 along with 700 MB temps also shows this well...Something we will need to watch....This could turn out to be one of the biggest snow events we seen all winter...Temps will be below norms after the first part of the work week....As we need to work out the timing and some other details...For now I kept POPS rather low do to timing issues and pending track of system...

Longer term....(SUN Mar 29 THROUGH TUE Apr 7).....

We start the period with temps below norms and will hold on to them through this forecast cycle..It appears that we will have off and on chances of snow through out this time frame....So everyone will be asking where is spring...

AFD

Forecast problems...Fog this morning...Temps through the short and middle term...Thunderstorm chances,heavy rain threat,than rain/snow chances....

CURRENT CONDITIONS......

Fog is the main story this morning,some which is dense with less than 1/4 mile VIS...Temps starting off in the lower 30s over the fresh snow...Middle 30s elsewhere's.Winds are rather light this morning..

SFC ANALYSIS.....

Low pressure over Central MN this morning..We see our next trouble maker along the Western States this morning....
Let get to the details of this troubled forecast...

Today Through Monday.....

Low over MN is forecasted to wash out into a weak trof and slide Southeast,than is forecasted to become a warm front by Sunday night and works it's way back Northeast...Meanwhile a 1004 MB low pressure is forecasted to move Southeast out of Canada into MT by 00z Sunday Than low is forecasted to track back into Canada,mean time we find 998 MB low pressure taken shape over Eastern CO..By 12z Monday said low should not make to much of a travel..Only moving into far Western KS...That area looks to be primed for severe thunderstorms.....Southerly winds up in our neck of the woods will usher in warmer air,however today temps are going to be a problem...If we can burn off the fog soon enough temps should get close to 50 mark...Though with 1 to 3 inches of snow that feel yesterday afternoon that will also hold the temps down some..So if we can burn this fog off and get some sunshine to melt the snow pack before prim time heating sets in..Temps may have to upped in forecast...If not temps may have to be bumped down some..Will keep forecast dry until Sunday night,though will have a chance of some FRN drizzle up in out Northern areas of MN....Sunday night System pulls moisture from the GOM...So will have widespread rain....P_water increase to almost 2 inches through out much of the FA..Will toes some thunder into the mix in our Southern zones as LIS increase to -1 - to -2....

Tuesday through Friday....

This period gets interesting....Heavy rainfall is a possibility...Will keep thunder alive for Tuesday over our Central and Southern Zones..990 Mb low pressure is forecasted to eject out of CO/Ks and move towards North Central NE by Tuesday morning...By later Tuesday afternoon early evening said low is forecasted to move into far Eastern SD/far Western MN ..By Wed afternoon said low is forecast to be in far Northern MN..Should mainly be a rain event,however colder air does get pulled into the area so rain should mix and change over to all snow...This could bring accumulating snows to the area....To early to say how much or where...Though looks like a winter storm is possible on Tuesday night and Wednesday....

Longer term (SAT 28 th through Mon APR 6th)....

Low pressure is forecasted by GS to move Northeast into Windy city by 12z Sat...We will have to watch this system as if the track goes more West we could be dealing with another rain/snow storm event for the upcoming weekend...Another interesting system showing up over NE on 12z Mon..This is forecasted to move East into SW WI by 00z Tue...Winter Critical thickness values would indicate snow for the area 850 MB temps also pointing that way...700 MB temps show all snow...System pulls away from the area Tuesday night.....Then after that a chance of off and on rain and snow...Temps start this period on the cold side as Arctic air is hold strong..Temps ranging from -4c to -12c through April 6th...So the way it looks now this period should see below norms in the temp dept,along with at least one good snow event...We shall see...

Still winter up in the great white North!

Old man winter still holding on strong to the area...Heavy snow falling up to almost 3/4 of inch on the ground right now,since the pictures have been taken(took awhile to upload them)..That would bring the total so far for today up to an inch of snow on this first day of spring....Which has ran off today...More snow on the way over the next few hours...

Where is spring ? Not here!

Mod to heavy snow falling once again the ground is getting white..This sucks...So winter still hangs ons...

Pictures from last night

The one picture is the ISS and Discovery making it's pass..However I almost forgot about it and hurried to get the camera set up,so the while line at the bottom left is the ISS and Discovery..This thing is bright and was the brightest thing in the sky...Also shows you how fast this was moving...That was a 10 second exp.

The other pictures are just playing around...My friend and my part time chase partner..Where just having some fun.I was in control of the camera doing different settings and what nots...

Mod to heavy snow this late morning,more on the way

That is right you read the Title right...This morning we had a band of Mod to heavy snow move arcoss Northern Barron County This band put down a 1/4 inch of snow,the ground got white once again...Right now this morning's snow is gone...Temps are in the upper 30s to low 40s across Northern Barron County..More snow is possible tonight and we could see anywhere from another 1/4 inch to as much as an 1/2 inch of snow...The pictures where taken durning the start of this event.....Winter is still trying to hold on...Forecast will be forth coming tomorrow morning...

Severe thunderstorm write up/yesterday's warm temps

Well I got the August 3rd 08 severe thunderstorm write up done,However I did it in wordpro...For some unknown reason I can't post it on here or my website...So back to grind,to figure out how to post it without having to rewrite it all again....

Yesterday warmth...
Yesterday here at the Weather Center we had a high of 64.2..The city of Rice Lake hit 65.3...
Looks like 60s were the rule through out the area yesterday...Today take away about 5° that should be it for highs..50 to 55 seems about right...Enjoy the warm air it does cool off a tad before warming back up this weekend....than a Arctic air set to move back in by late next week...More on that this weekend...

My AFD

Short term through middle term sure not a lot to talk about...Long term into the longer term a little more to hash out...
Main story will be the above norms temps through mid-week than cooling of by the upcoming weekend into early next week...Did pull the mix precip from tonight's forecast over our far Northern zones of MN...Also pulled out rain/thunder from Saturday's forecast...And went with a mix of snow,rain for Saturday night and Sunday....Longer term looks to be an active one with a more Arctic air will rear it's ugly head once again,along with some snow events...So enjoy the warm air over the next few days as it won't last much longer...Looks like after this week and the upcoming weekend we drop back to below norms until April..Lets hope the models are way wrong on this...

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps rather mild for this time of year..This is where our highs should be at for the most part...Temps range from the lower to middle 30s...With some upper 20s being reported in our colder spots..Here in Rice Lake the temps at the office is 28.6..Areas of fog also showing up in the SFC OBS this morning across much of my MN zones,mainly do to the melting of the deeper snow pack in them areas.Rest of the FA is showing clear skies...Winds are light out of the South at this hour..



SFC ANALYSIS....

Pesky frontal boundary still hung up over Southern Canada this morning..This has kept off and on clouds through far Northern zones of MN over night..Other than that most of the FA has been controlled by high pressure.This morning's fog should burn off rather fast...However look for fog once again in the same areas...As this is where the deep snow pack remains and is melting slowly away..We do find an area of a 998 MB low pressure over Central MT..This will end up being a player in our weather by Tuesday/Tuesday night's time frame...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY....

Frontal boundary over Southern Canada is forecasted to slowly lift Northwards as a warm front...Southerly winds today through Monday will bring the FA mild temps upper 40s to middle 50s seem plausible...With lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s...
On Mon we see a thro starting to work towards the area..Won't make it as is forecasted to wash out...by 12z Tue we find a low pressure over SW MN with a one cold front/Wind shift line moving through our MN zones..The second cold front is forecast to move through and catch up to the first one..This will allow for temps to cool back off to either side of norms..I have kept forecast dry as moisture seems rather scant for system to work with....Temps drop back off into the 30s by upcoming weekend....

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY....

Did run with a mixed precip for this time frame as a 1001 MB low pressure drops South out of Southern Canada/NE ND..by 00z Tuesday low should be over Central WI....We may have to change this to an all rain event....

LONGER TERM ( TUE MAR 24 THROUGH TUE MAR 31)

We start this period near norms however by the middle and end of this time frame temps drop back to below norms..Everyone will be asking where is spring....We will have off and on chances at some snow events...Some which could bring us some accumulating snows..More on that through out this upcoming week and next weekend as we head towards that time frame....

Better pictures of Orion

Mild night,so I was out taken some pictures..These pictures are the better one of Orion..Better than the other ones I posted.These you can see the gas clouds better..Wind did get a little chilly...

My pet rabbit

Ok not really my pet,however this little guy always comes right up to me and eats out of my hand..He has been gun shy of the camera,but this morning I was able to get a few pictures of him...I hope one day he will let me take pictures of him eating out of my hand..I have four other rabbits around they are slowly getting closer to me...I really do enjoy watching them play it can be very funny at times

The Forecast(AFD)

Not a lot to talk about in this forecast package...Short term through the long term Fri Mar 20 For the most part peaceful weather on tap with a nice big warm up..Just what everyone needs right about as cabin fever has set in big time in most people....How long will the warm air last? Lets find out shall we?

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps this morning start out rather warm with temps in the middle to upper 20 across much of the FA,,Some teen showing up over the deeper snow pack areas....Here at the office 21 right now...Satellite is showing an area of Clouds through our Central areas of MN into our WI zones,,Those clouds have been decreasing in coverage over the last few hours,do except that trend to continue...Winds for the most part are light out of the South...Radar is picking up on some returns up in Canada,That area may brush our extreme areas of Northern MN this morning,Though the area is moving Northeast there may be some back building to it over the hour or so per meso scale model...


SFC ANALYSIS....

This morning we find a large area of 1025 MB high pressure centered over Northern MO..Meanwhile we find a cold front just North of our MN Border...

TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY....

Cold front to our North is forecasted to drop to the South through out the day,However this front shall remain North of the area,Will have some mixed precip up in our Northern Zones MN whereas the best moisture is pooling,though not a lot...For the part this should just be a cloud maker up there....By Sunday afternoon the whole FA should be basking under mostly sunny skies and warmer temps....Lower to middle 50s seem plausible...With lows in the 30s.....Temps do cool back down to norms by mid week as that pesky upper level Northwest flow kicks back in...Will run with a dry forecast through this period....

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Did run with some rain/thunder as a system dives Southeast into the area..Temps will rebound back to above norms,however that should be short lived as we see in the longer term forecast below....

Longer term ( Mar 23 through Mar 30)......

Mon we start the new work week with temps near norms..Temps cool back off to slightly below norms Wed through Thu as more Arctic air tries to battle for control of the FA..850 MB temps do cool off to around the -8c to -4c by Friday and hold through Mon..Looks like the Arctic air will win this battle through this time frame as we head right back to below norms for this time of year once again...Which seems to be a broken record through out this winter/early spring....As far as precip goes,well lets take a look at it...Mon through Tue will have to hold on to rain chances as low pressure moves South of the area..Thermal profiles attm would suggest mainly rain with a switch over to some snow before ending..Next system moves in for Thu Thermal profiles indicate rain in our Southern zones of MN and WI,while our Northern areas of MN would see all snow,however with 850 MB temps colder than 0c that would suggest all snow through out the whole FA as one low pressure moves North of the areas and another one moves South of the area and inverted trof should be setting up over the FA between the two areas of low pressure systems...My confidence levels are low in this period do to the fact of the factors above...Sat we find another low pressure dropping South out of Canada..This 1014 MB low has all the makings of a clipper like system with cold air at the SFC and upper levels looks like a snow producer for the FA QPF increases to around 0.25 inches..The winter critical line sets up to our South over IA...We will have to watch this to see how it really unfolds when we get closer to that time frame..A weaker system right its heals for Sun night into Mon once again should be all snow per thermal profiles....
My confidence level is really low in this longer term forecast attm..

Orion and the Pleiades

I was also able to play around with Orion and the Pleiades AKA the seven sisters..Got was able to all this before the Moon washed everything out...So all in all it was a great night...Though it was cold,however when doing astro photography it's better when it's cold no haze to deal with like the spring and summer months..Still in that time frame one still can land some great astro pictures...Like always click on the pictures for full size.....

Aurora Borealis

What a night last night...I got to get some pictures of the Aurora Borealis AKA the Northern lights...It has been some time since we down here in the Middle latitudes really got to see any of them...Mainly do to the fact the sun has been sleeping..There was a few times when we had a shot as seeing the Northern Lights,however the clouds put the damper on the fire...I was looking at some things on the computer last night,and around 9 PM I noticed the KP was starting to get closer to 5...I really didn't think to much of it...Then about 9:05 PM the KP shot right up to 5 then I got some alerts in my email...I hurried up got all my camera things ready to go...I was outside by 9:08 PM...Got set up and started to take pictures of the ARC..By all means this was not the even close to being a great show..Still it gave me time to play around with my Digital Rebel XT Canon camera and my new lens I got this past week...So far I'm really happy with my camera, it was well worth the money I stuck into everything...It did really well in the sub zero Arctic air..-3 below when I was out there..Temp did seem to warm up some...I'm glad it wasn't Wed night it was -15 here....Some will ask me if I will sell my 35 mm film cameras..I say no way..I will still use them for the great shows along with my digital camera..I got over $3,500.00 stuck into them cameras...Though I'm getting close to that mark with this camera now...
Again this was not the best show,nevertheless it was fun being able to see the Northern Lights,though it was just the arc....Click on pictures to see full size images.

Last day of this blog maybe

This may be the last day I update this blog do to the fact some people get offended by some of my post...I have enough to things to deal with,without having to worry if I have offended anyone..I don't need to play these school games anymore nor will I....I do thank the ones from last night for backing me up on a few topics,that does make me feel a tad better..Though I didn't get the emails till this morning,I will reply to each of them when I get home from work today...What I may end up doing is posting my chase logs...I may not cuz I'm sure they will offended some people..I'm not sure what I'm going to do with blog attm...I know one thing it's becoming a headache for me..One I sure don't need...So this could be the end of this...

Snowfall map!

This map is based on model data..This should debunk some of the false info flying around and some things I have read this evening.....Click map for larger image....

Major snowstorm update

Major winter storm still on its way...The track of the low has shifted a tad more to the South and East on this morning computer runs...I do think the NWS will be issuing a Winter storm watch for the following Counites of WIBarron.Dunn,Chippewa,Polk,Rusk,and ST.Croix Counties....LOL Well I see Polk County is under the a watch...I would think the rest of said Counties will be in the watch some time today...I still feel the heaviest snow is going to fall in MN with 10 to 12 inches and or more...While in WI...Points North od Baldwin,Menomonie,Chippewa Fall..Could see 4 to 6 inches of snow or more...Lesser amounts South of this line..Along with more snow in my locally higher snow areas..(Balsam Lake,Cameron, Bruce and points North of there...) There is still a chance at some thunderstorms..If thunderstorms become strong enough this could do two things..If the cold air is in place this could add more snowfall totals to said areas if the storms do move into the area...If storm stay South they could rob some of the moisture flowing into the area bringing less snowfall amounts..Also side note if severe thunderstorms form in IA,IL this will rob a lot of the mositure flowing North into the area hence less snowfall amounts...There still a few things up in the air that could play major heck with possible snowstorm...Wil try to hash them out tonight when I get home from work..

Major snowstorm update

I had to show the models and their thinking just to show the none forecasters or the ones who think then can walk the walk and talk the talk. But really can't.(Little forecasting skills)..How hard it is to come up with a forecast...

Update on the Major winter storm to effect the FA....

Major winter storm to effect the FA with rain,freezing rain,rain/snow mix,and thunderstorms,along with very windy conditions...
Lets break this all down by models.....

GEM/GLB....

12z Mon this model has as 1008 low pressure system over Northern KS/Southern NE..By 12z Tue low is forecasted to be in about the same area,however does deepen to around 1001 MBS....Low pressure than lifts Northeast towards Southern WI,and deepens to about 988 MBS.....Than lifts Northeast into Canada...Meanwhile a strong 1042 MB Arctic high pressure tries to build into the area.Pressure gradients increase,leading to very strong winds...This model did show a slight shift of the track towards the East...

UKMENT.....

12z Mon this model has a 1008 MB low over Western KS...By 12z Tue the low is forecasted to be in North central KS.This model deepens the low to around 997 MBS at this time frame...18z Tue low is forecasted to lift into Central WI..Also strong 1040 MB Arctic high pressure is forecasted to build into the Northern Plains..The pressure gradients will increase.Here again this would lead to very windy conditions...Also this track is a tad more East than previous runs....

ECMWF....

12z Mon 1003 MN low is found over Eastern CO..Low moves into Western KS by 12z Tue and deepens to about 997 MBS...By 18z Tue the low is forecasted to move into Central WI..Very windy conditions shall form as strong Arctic 1042-1043 high pressure build into the Northern Plains...Pressure gradients between said high and said low will tighten up....This track is has slightly shifted towards the South and East....

GFS ......

12z Mon.1004 MB low pressure over Eastern CO/Western KS This model move the low towards IA/MO by 12z Tue..By 00z Wed the low is forecasted to be centered in Western WI..Just South of Eau Claire...This low is forecasted to deepen to about 995 MBS by then...By 06Z Wed low is forecasted to be over Northeastern WI and down to 985 MBS....On this model we see a strong 1042-1043 MB Arctic high pressure trying to build into the..Pressure gradients will increase leading to very strong winds across the area...This track is about the same with a very slight shift to the South and East...

NAM....

I won't even talk about this model,as there is nothing there I can use for this forecast..As this model remains the outlier still..

You ask ok what does this all mean..As you can see from above models there is still some issues in the track and how strong the low will be....Here is where a forecaster's skills kick in as you are about to see....
I will lean more on ECMWF and some of GFS details,blended with GEM and UKMENT models...
Low pressure over Eastern CO is forecasted to move into Eastern KS than take a turn Northeast and move through Eastern Parts of IA then into Southwestern WI between La Cross and Madison...Low is than forecasted to move into Northeastern WI to around the Crandon area...This track would as a rule give all the FA a shot at heavy snow,however warmer air is forecasted to get mixed into the system..So thinking is the heavy snow band will set up in Central to Northern MN where over a foot will be possible...Strong winds will lead to blizzard conditions across this area..Over in Northern WI will see mixed precip change over to all snow here we could see around 6 inches of snow..Points from Central Burnett,Sawyer,and Washburn Counties North wards...Points South of that as right now should see less than 4 inches of snow,as the rain/mixed will hold on longer in these areas..These areas could also see a few thunderstorms as Lapse rates increase and LIS drop to 0 to around 1....After this winter storm moves out Arctic high pressure builds in...Temps go no where but down..Below zero for lows through Friday morning.With highs ranging from the single digits to around 20......

Update on the Major winter storm

Forecast problems...Major snowstorm for Monday night through Tuesday night...This AFD will focus mainly around that....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps below zero greet the morning for those of you in Northern MN,while the rest of our MN zones have temps in the single digits to the middle teens...Our WI zones are basking in temps in the lower to middle 20s..Radar showing some flurries in our far Southern zones of WI at this hour....Skies range from clear to mostly cloudy...All dependant on where you live..Winds are rather light across the FA this morning...

SCF ANALYSIS.....

This morning we find a 1000 MB low pressure over NE KS,meanwhile we see a 1026 MB Arctic high pressure on the Western door step of Hudson Bay....

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.....

For the most part our FA will be under the influence of the high pressure system..Our far Southern zones of MN,WI may see some light snow as low pressure moves towards the Northeast,However the low is tracking more South that was figured yesterday..So in our far sections only light snow will be possible today...No accumulations are now forecasted....

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT....

Here is where the real problems start up.....Will throw the NAM model right out the window,as it is the outlier once again...I won't even talk about this model,as there no details I agree with....
GFS has now come into a better agreement with ECMWF model...Will lay heavier on the ECMWF model with most of the details..Will however toss in some details from GFS model....
Monday see a 1000 MB low pressure over Eastern CO...This low is forecasted to deepen to around 996 MBS as it pushes into Western KS by 00Z Tuesday,By 18z Tue..Said low should be over Southern IA..By 00z Wed..Low should be over Southwest WI...Low then moves into Far Northeast WI...Meanwhile a 1042 MB high pressure is waiting to take the stage..High gets a little pushy causing pressure gradients to increase....This system will have lots of wind to work with....As far as where the heavy snow band sets up..As of right now looks like Central MN into far Northern WI,however the foot plus snows should be from Central MN into Northern MN...This area will also see blizzard conditions,with heavy snow and strong winds....Meanwhile over in our Central and Southern areas zones of WI...Precip here should be a mix of rain and snow and more so rain on Tuesday, may see some thunderstorm activity from time to time...This are will change over to snow,however ATTM accumulations look to be much lighter here.....We will have to watch this storm close..The next few computer runs should have this all written in stone....So the track has about 30% chance of changing at this point...

My AFD

Tonight,don't forget to set you clocks ahead one hour before going to bed....

My AFD......
Forecast problems snow chances,Arctic air as NW flows kicks in once again.....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps starting out cooler than yesterday...middle teens to the middle 20s for the most part...SFC OBS...Some stations are reporting some flurries....Skies range from fair to cloudy across the FA...As a cold front drifts through...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

Cold front now pushing through the FA ...One deck of clouds that did mange to produce some light snow/flurries..A 1024 MB high pressure over Southern parts of ND...We find a 1001 MB low pressure system over Western KS this morning.....Clouds and some light precip has made it's way Northward into Southern and Central WI..This area should remain South of the FA...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT......

For the most High pressure will stay in control of our weather today..Temps will be cooler today as cold front is forecasted to clear the FA...By 18Z today we find our FA under control of a 1020 MB high pressure wind will be light under partly to mostly cloudy skies..Tonight the high moves away form the area,this will allow the storm system to the South west to start blanking the area with clouds.....Temps are forecaster to fall into the upper teens to lower 20s...

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....

Here is where a few problems creep into the forecast,though models seem to have a better handle on this system....
06Z SUNDAY 1004 MB low pressure is forecasted to lift out of SE KS..By 12Z Sun...Low should be in the Northern parts of MO...BY 00Z Monday said low should be in Southern MI.....This spread snow into our far Southern areas of MN,and through out much of our WI FA...Best chance at seeing a few inches of snow will be in our far Southern zones of WI...In my Northern areas of WI should see light snow with a dusting to as much as an inch....System takes the snow and clouds out of the areas late Sun night...

MONDAY...

FA will be under a weak area of high pressure......

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT....

More headaches for forecasters through the upper Mid West....
Both GFS and ECMWF models are starting to eye to eye with this storm system...One big difference is the track...
We see a 1002 MB low pressure take form in TX/OK panhandle area...This system is forecast to race Northeast towards Northeast WI and deepen to around 994 MBS...This system is forecasted to drag warm air North into the Southern areas of WI...This would keep a mixed bag of snow,rain,sleet..Before changing to all snow.For those areas...While a snow event for the rest of our FA.Right now looks like most of our MN and far Northern WI zones have the best shot at seeing a big snow event...Looks like some thunderstorm activity in the card in the warm sector over our Southern WI Zones as lapse rates increase through out the day Tue...Strong 1038 -1040 MB Arctic high pressure will try to build into the area at the same time this will increase pressure gradients,so this system will have to watched closely for blizzard conditions to form over our MN zones...Our WI zones should see some blowing snow also though with lower amounts here should not be to much of a problem....
This is way out in time so this could all change...Will mainly talk about this system in tomorrow's update...One thing is for sure Arctic air will plow back into the area after this storm system pulls away...I may have temps to warm still...Temps should easy fall to the single to teens below zero,with highs barely making it out of the lower teens above.....Did use old reliable ECMWF for most of the details...As this model as been the model of choice for most forecasters this winter.....However did blend in some blend in some details from GFS....
No long term forecast today,and tomorrow...As we are watching this major snowstorm unfold...

Check it out

Check this out....I love it,still not the best like the radar programs I run...
http://radar.srh.noaa.gov/

Forecast based on what models show right now!

Before we start this..We will say models are having a very hard time with this whole forecast period...We will be saying through out the forecast to remind you things can change..This has to rank in the top 5 hardest forecasts so far this winter....

Forecast headaches,and there are many this go around..Short term,middle term and then the long term are all prove to have their problems...First off will be the temps,fog/low clouds,snow chances for the weekend,and once again on Monday night into Tuesday night...Arctic air in the long term....This whole forecast can change as models are having a hard time through this whole time frame.....

CURRENT CONDITIONS......

Temps this morning starting out rather mild...Low 30s to middle 30s are common...Also fog still remains a problem through out the area..For satellite imagery showing this very well...Dewpoints close to the air temps along with melting snows has brought the for into the area...We still see areas of drizzle/mist showing up in the SFC OBS this morning...

SFC ANALYSIS......

We avoided the precip last night as a short wave moved through our Northern areas of MN and WI...Mainly rain and rain with sleet has been reported through that area,however in our Southern zones we still had our share of problems with fog and drizzle.Winds have picked up some so any dense fog still around should be improving by the late morning...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...............

Temps today will be a problem...If we keep the low clouds/fog/moisture trapped along with added moisture from the melting snow pack..Temps will be held down into the 30s instead of the lower to middle 40s,Just like yesterday we had a chance at getting close to 50,however clouds moved in and kept temps in the low 40s for the most part...I will bank on scouring out the clouds/fog as somewhat drier air is working into the area from upstream where dewpoints are in the lower to middle 20 across ND,and Canada...Northwesterly wind should bring this drier air into the area...By 18Z today we find a 1017MB high pressure over Southwestern MN,also noted was a cold front reaching into far Northwestern MN..This cold front is forecasted to move into Northeastern MN and reach Southwest towards Northeastern SD...By 06Z cold front is forecasted to start to move into far sections of Northwestern WI..By 12Z Saturday said front should just about clear Northwestern WI..Front should come through dry,as moisture will be limited to the far Northern areas of MN,with only a few clouds up there...Also we see a stronger high pressure building into the Northwestern part of MN 1024 MBS this high will get shunted off to the Northeast but still will have an impact on far Northern areas of MN,and WI...More on that in a bit.....Highs today should reach the low to middle 40s across much of my forecast area..Once again that will depend on if we can rid our self's off the low level moisture,and low clouds....
Lows tonight should throttle back into the middle to upper 20s.....Saturday highs will be cooler with middle to upper 30s prevailing....

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.....

More problems and bigger problems...We will talk about each of the models first...Nam is the starting gates.....We see a 999MB low pressure over Western KS Sat night....This low is forecasted to move into Northeast IA on Sunday and weaken to around 1001 MBS...Low is than forecasted to head into Eastern WI,around the Door County areas by Sunday night,With said track of low on would think most of our forecast area would be in line for accumulating snows..Thermal profiles on Nam would favor this....Next to take the track is the GFS model....GFS has the low pressure more South than NAM....By 12Z Sunday GFS shows the low over Northern MO/Southern IA Then pushes the low just to the Northeast of the windy city..This would keep the heavier snows just to the Southern areas of my FA....Next model to take the stage is old reliable...ECMWF.....This model has the low pressure tracking more South....This would keep the snows well to our South......Since this model has been right on target through the winter along with the SREF model...I will slide with that thinking....The track of the low would keep the best area of heavy snow through Southern MN into Central WI 4 plus inches through the axis area...This would leave my Western and Northern WI areas with dry up North to maybe as much as 3 inches of snow in my Central areas,Barron Rusk,and up into a small part of Sawyer County,and points South to around Central Dunn and Chippewa Counties..Point South of that should see 4 plus inches...While most of Polk,ST.Croix Counties will be asking where is the snow...Look South and East,as the track will only brush these areas with maybe an inch...Snow should end by Sunday night as the system pulls away....Temps Sat night will drop to the low 20s,Sunday temps low 30s,Sunday night temps drop into the upper teens to lower 20s as a push of cold air move through....

MONDAY....

A break in the action as an area of high pressure moves through the FA,should see mostly sunny skies with temps in the upper 30s....

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.....

Here we go again...This event here should be a snow event also...Lets talk about old reliable first...ECMWF...Model show a 1000 MB low pressure over NE CO this low is forecasted to track Northeast into SE WI on Tuesday,as it does said low is forecasted to weaken to around 1004 MB...Really doesn't matter that much...Thermal profile suggest all snow with this system,as the way it stands right now most of my FA should see snow with this system....Strong 1041 MB high pressure will also be trying to take control of the weather at the same time.The pressure gradients will be tight,so this system has the possibility of being a windy one.....We will have to watch this system more close than this meeker system coming in this weekend....

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

Arctic high pressure take the center stage,this will bring us colder than norms temps once again....Highs in the middle to upper 20s with lows dropping back into the single digits...

LONGER TERM..(.Mar 14 THROUGH Mar 22)

First off the bat lets talk about temps.....We start the 14 with temps around -4C By 12z Sun we warm back up close to +4C to close to +8C...That will be short lived as we see temps by temps fall back to -4 to -8C by 12Z Tue..Temps remain cold through the rest of the period,with a slight warm up by the 22 of Mar..Still not as cold that was advertised by the models a few day ago...
Ok let talk about storm systems....We will find one system moving through on Sun this may very well be a light rain event as temps should be warm enough at most level to support it...My Mon into Tue we see another fast moving system...This one should be over SW WI,by 00Z Tue...Colder air does get pulled South into the system so rain should be mixing and changing over to all snow on Tue....Back into the Northwest flow we go...We see a clipper like system moving South out of Canada Wed....By Wed night and into Thur more snow on it's way for the area..By Sun we find another stronger system taking shape over the Southern plains...This one could produce a severe weather event for AR,TX OK,and KS....While up here we shall be high and dry that day..Problems have also been showing up in the long term forecast...
Once again all models are having such a hard time with every thing,,This whole forecast could change big time...Keep that in mind....

Fast update

Sorry about no forecast last night,I could not get onto my blog.....
It's March and the weather maps are showing that rather well,with large temps swings....Along with rain/snow events...One set for this weekend....Will be a close call for all snow,will all depend on where that nasty 540 MB line sets up..Thermal profiles as of right would suggest rain/snow mixed...However models slowly leading to more snow event for the area...if that pans out right 2 to 4 inches of snow could be possible this weekend...Will try to have a very detailed forecast tonight.....Longer range models showing what could become a major snow storm arounf Tuesday night/Wednesday's time frame...Arctic air set to move back into the area with 850 MB temps ranging from -8c to as cold as -24c....After this possible snowstormTemi will remain cold through much of middle to end of next week and remain below norms up to around March 20-21st when see temps rebound back to to above oc.........Once again will try to do a very detailed forecast tonight after work...There will be two of us forecasters on this...This could be a very tech. forecast,as we are pulling out all of our big guns on this........

Fast look at the forecast/Moving ahead 1 hour this weekend

Well have more of a detailed forecast tonight when I get home from work....
Warm weather that is in place should hold strong through the rest of the work week....Temps this weekend do cool off a little....Still close to or slightly above norms....Though a few models still want to bring in more Arctic air into the area,feel that is being over done attm....Warm weather holds till around Tuesday.....After that looks like more Arctic air on the way for the longer term forecast....Weather pattern does get to be more active starting this weekend...We should see rain/snow events...Looks like a few good sized snow events coming together in the longer term forecast...Winter is not over yet,and Spring temps are only going to be a tease as we shall find out..So enjoy the warm temps over the five days......Again a very detailed forecast forth coming tonight after I get home from work....

Also this is the weekend we will lose an hour of sleep.....That is right Saturday night.Sunday Morning at 2 AM is when move the clocks ahead 1 hour...Better yet just do that before hitting the hay Saturday night...Also is a good time to change batteries in the fire detectors and the NOAA all hazardous radios....So spring is SLOWLY getting here!

Still below norm temps today.

Well it never got as warm as everyone was yelling for today..High here was 26.5..Rice Lake came in with 28...Winds made it feel even colder than that...

Still cold.

Cold,cold go away and don't come another day!..Cold mroning here -16 for a low while Rice Lake came in at -14.....Temps have not warmed yet still in the teens below zero..We are up to -14 while Rice Lake is up to -12....Temps should warm to the upper teens to around 20 to 22...Tonight either side of zero that up to around 30 for Tuesday..Into the middle to upper 30s to around the lower 40s through the resr of the work week into the weekend..

Arctic air update

Cold weather still hanging on tight...Last night low was -7 that came in @ 6:45 Am this morning...The high today was 13 that came in @ 2:15.....Right now @ 8:03 temp is setting at a lonely 4.1° above .....Arctic high will still be camping out tonight....Lows shall fall to -15 to -10...If we didn't have the clouds the temps would be much colder than that,though it won't be cloudy just partly cloudy,nevertheless the clouds will help some.....Temps do start the upward trend through the work week....

FEB STATS

Feb was colder than norm....No shock there....Feb we saw 16.00 inches of snow,this was way above norms.....What is interesting if we don't pick up any more snow...We will be well above normal in the snowfall dept for this winter....
We had two thunderstorm days...The first one was Feb 9th....The second one on Feb 26th....
This info is for BARRON COUNTY ONLY.......Data complied here at the Weather Center....

Rant/than forecast

Where is spring that everyone keep yelling about,I sure don't see it....Sure we will see few warm days here and there,by the mid to late week...Longer term as you will see pusts us back below norms again...Before warming back up late in the long term forecast....One to 4 days of warm temps does not mean spring is here!...I'm sure we will all be hearing that late this in this upcoming week...Don't believe it folks..Spring will not be here,it will only be a tease!!...By the end of the longer term things start to look a little better for temps to warm and may remain warm...We shall see....

My AFD below....

Rather dull forecast in the short term,How long to hold on to the cold temps....Precip chances mid week...

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps through the FA are very cold for this time of year,as Arctic high pressure remains in control...Temps in our MN areas any where from the single digits below to as cold as middle 20s below.....In our WI zones temps range from the single digits below to the upper teens below...Here in Rice Lake -6.2

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning we find a large 1046 MB Arctic high pressure over far ND....This high has been responsible for the very cold temps the FA has been seeing over the last few days.....We see a storm system in the deep South and another system off the Coast line of the NJ...Out on the West Coast we find a strong 992 MB low pressure spinning West of WA,and OR.....

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.....

High pressure is forecast to move East across the area,hence we will hang on to the much below norm temps...Will for the most part remain dry,however we may see some light snow/flurries Tuesday night as WAA starts to kick in..LES will be possible this morning through out our snow belts of WI...As the high pressure slowly moves of to the East winds will become South this will aid in LES along our North shore for tonight and Monday...Will keep highs in the teens today,did cut computer guidance temps by a few degrees,as they really haven't had the best handle on this Arctic blast...As morning lows have proven once again...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....

Main story here will be temps...We will see a rather nice warm up,temps will be slightly above norms,close to 40 for Friday and may go into the lower 40s on Saturday...Lows will range from the upper teens to lower 20s through this frame,as we remain in a zonal flow through much of the upper mid-west...However ECMWF model shows an Arctic cold front moving into the area,while other models don't show this...We will have to watch this as the ECWMF as been the model of choice through this whole winter,as it has done really great with cold snaps,and winter storms...So we may very well have to drop the temps back to below norms in the next few forecasts...We are getting to that time of year when we will see the GFS,and NAM models take over the show,could this be the start....Time will tell soon enough....

LONGER TERM FORECAST ( SUNDAY MAR 8 THROUGH TUESDAY MAR 17)

We start the period out with a chance of some snow, and temps do cool off from -2 to -4...Temps will remain below norms through much of this time frame....By Mar 14 models do show temps getting back to the normal mark,by Mar 15 temps get close to +4C also looks like a storm system will be centered over Central MN mostly rain for our WI ,and most of our MN zones,part of our Western MN zones could see a mix or just all snow from this system on Mar 16,Later Monday/Monday night the rest of the FA should change over to a mix or all snow...Tuesday low pressure pulls off to the East temps should remain on either side on the norms....
Side note ...Could this be the signs of spring at the end of this preriod ?.....I can only hope...