Before we start this..We will say models are having a very hard time with this whole forecast period...We will be saying through out the forecast to remind you things can change..This has to rank in the top 5 hardest forecasts so far this winter....
Forecast headaches,and there are many this go around..Short term,middle term and then the long term are all prove to have their problems...First off will be the temps,fog/low clouds,snow chances for the weekend,and once again on Monday night into Tuesday night...Arctic air in the long term....This whole forecast can change as models are having a hard time through this whole time frame.....
CURRENT CONDITIONS......
Temps this morning starting out rather mild...Low 30s to middle 30s are common...Also fog still remains a problem through out the area..For satellite imagery showing this very well...Dewpoints close to the air temps along with melting snows has brought the for into the area...We still see areas of drizzle/mist showing up in the SFC OBS this morning...
SFC ANALYSIS......
We avoided the precip last night as a short wave moved through our Northern areas of MN and WI...Mainly rain and rain with sleet has been reported through that area,however in our Southern zones we still had our share of problems with fog and drizzle.Winds have picked up some so any dense fog still around should be improving by the late morning...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...............
Temps today will be a problem...If we keep the low clouds/fog/moisture trapped along with added moisture from the melting snow pack..Temps will be held down into the 30s instead of the lower to middle 40s,Just like yesterday we had a chance at getting close to 50,however clouds moved in and kept temps in the low 40s for the most part...I will bank on scouring out the clouds/fog as somewhat drier air is working into the area from upstream where dewpoints are in the lower to middle 20 across ND,and Canada...Northwesterly wind should bring this drier air into the area...By 18Z today we find a 1017MB high pressure over Southwestern MN,also noted was a cold front reaching into far Northwestern MN..This cold front is forecasted to move into Northeastern MN and reach Southwest towards Northeastern SD...By 06Z cold front is forecasted to start to move into far sections of Northwestern WI..By 12Z Saturday said front should just about clear Northwestern WI..Front should come through dry,as moisture will be limited to the far Northern areas of MN,with only a few clouds up there...Also we see a stronger high pressure building into the Northwestern part of MN 1024 MBS this high will get shunted off to the Northeast but still will have an impact on far Northern areas of MN,and WI...More on that in a bit.....Highs today should reach the low to middle 40s across much of my forecast area..Once again that will depend on if we can rid our self's off the low level moisture,and low clouds....
Lows tonight should throttle back into the middle to upper 20s.....Saturday highs will be cooler with middle to upper 30s prevailing....
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.....
More problems and bigger problems...We will talk about each of the models first...Nam is the starting gates.....We see a 999MB low pressure over Western KS Sat night....This low is forecasted to move into Northeast IA on Sunday and weaken to around 1001 MBS...Low is than forecasted to head into Eastern WI,around the Door County areas by Sunday night,With said track of low on would think most of our forecast area would be in line for accumulating snows..Thermal profiles on Nam would favor this....Next to take the track is the GFS model....GFS has the low pressure more South than NAM....By 12Z Sunday GFS shows the low over Northern MO/Southern IA Then pushes the low just to the Northeast of the windy city..This would keep the heavier snows just to the Southern areas of my FA....Next model to take the stage is old reliable...ECMWF.....This model has the low pressure tracking more South....This would keep the snows well to our South......Since this model has been right on target through the winter along with the SREF model...I will slide with that thinking....The track of the low would keep the best area of heavy snow through Southern MN into Central WI 4 plus inches through the axis area...This would leave my Western and Northern WI areas with dry up North to maybe as much as 3 inches of snow in my Central areas,Barron Rusk,and up into a small part of Sawyer County,and points South to around Central Dunn and Chippewa Counties..Point South of that should see 4 plus inches...While most of Polk,ST.Croix Counties will be asking where is the snow...Look South and East,as the track will only brush these areas with maybe an inch...Snow should end by Sunday night as the system pulls away....Temps Sat night will drop to the low 20s,Sunday temps low 30s,Sunday night temps drop into the upper teens to lower 20s as a push of cold air move through....
MONDAY....
A break in the action as an area of high pressure moves through the FA,should see mostly sunny skies with temps in the upper 30s....
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.....
Here we go again...This event here should be a snow event also...Lets talk about old reliable first...ECMWF...Model show a 1000 MB low pressure over NE CO this low is forecasted to track Northeast into SE WI on Tuesday,as it does said low is forecasted to weaken to around 1004 MB...Really doesn't matter that much...Thermal profile suggest all snow with this system,as the way it stands right now most of my FA should see snow with this system....Strong 1041 MB high pressure will also be trying to take control of the weather at the same time.The pressure gradients will be tight,so this system has the possibility of being a windy one.....We will have to watch this system more close than this meeker system coming in this weekend....
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....
Arctic high pressure take the center stage,this will bring us colder than norms temps once again....Highs in the middle to upper 20s with lows dropping back into the single digits...
LONGER TERM..(.Mar 14 THROUGH Mar 22)
First off the bat lets talk about temps.....We start the 14 with temps around -4C By 12z Sun we warm back up close to +4C to close to +8C...That will be short lived as we see temps by temps fall back to -4 to -8C by 12Z Tue..Temps remain cold through the rest of the period,with a slight warm up by the 22 of Mar..Still not as cold that was advertised by the models a few day ago...
Ok let talk about storm systems....We will find one system moving through on Sun this may very well be a light rain event as temps should be warm enough at most level to support it...My Mon into Tue we see another fast moving system...This one should be over SW WI,by 00Z Tue...Colder air does get pulled South into the system so rain should be mixing and changing over to all snow on Tue....Back into the Northwest flow we go...We see a clipper like system moving South out of Canada Wed....By Wed night and into Thur more snow on it's way for the area..By Sun we find another stronger system taking shape over the Southern plains...This one could produce a severe weather event for AR,TX OK,and KS....While up here we shall be high and dry that day..Problems have also been showing up in the long term forecast...
Once again all models are having such a hard time with every thing,,This whole forecast could change big time...Keep that in mind....
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