Thursday, March 26, 2009

Email fixed..Forecast...

SIDE NOTE BEFORE FORECAST....

I see my email system is working now...I did get emails from the last two days...So whatever was wrong is fixed now...
Now on to the forecast discussion....

Forecast concerns....Arctic air...Snow chances........Below norm temps keep a coming...

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps in the middle 20s at this hour with some upper 20s found through out the FA...SFC OBS and radar showing some light snow/flurries across the FA..Winds have become more West as a cold front pushed through the last few hours,wind should become Northwest by mid afternoon...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

The power house storm system that has been effecting the area is now North of Lake Superior..Cold front reaches down from said low into Southeastern WI that back through IA into NE then out into WY...Meanwhile we find a developing storm system over the Southwestern states...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

Some of us have awoke to a dusting of snow on the ground this morning...
Low pressure North of Lake Superior and it's associated trof will keep skies cloudy along with a chance at some light snow/flurries going through out much of the FA.....No snow accumulation is forecasted....Temps will remain below norms...With highs today and Friday in the lower to middle 30s...Lows for tonight and Friday night upper teens to lower 20s should work out fine....One good thing is winds today will be lighter than they have been..

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT....

The snow storm that could have been won't be as upper level flow will keep the system well to our South and Southeast....
Latest ECMWF shows a 994 MB low pressure moving into TX on Friday...Low is forecasted to move into Southeast OK by Saturday....What is interesting about this thermal profiles show a rain/snow mix over Northern TX into OK. By 00z Saturday..Unreal for this time of year for folks in the South...Anyway back to the matter at hand....Low is forecasted to eject Northeast into Central IL by Sunday...System to far South to give my FA any amount of snow.GFS is on the same page,as far as the track of this winter storm.Some light snow/flurries will be possible though....High on Saturday still below norms..Middle 30s ...Lows Saturday night in the lower 20s seem to be plausible...

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....

Not much to talk this day...Mostly clear skies are on the table with warmer temps..Upper 30s..Sunday night the FA will still be dominated by weak high pressure...So partly to clear skies shall rule...Lows still on the cold side with lower 20s a good bet...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.....

Things get more interesting for my FA during this time frame...Monday we see a 991 MB low pressure getting it's act going over Eastern CO/Western KS..Low is forecasted to move to the Northeast and be centered Northern MO by Tuesday....Said low tracks to Southeastern WI on Tuesday night/Wednesday per ECMWF,Meanwhile GFS keeps this system more North and west,as low right over my FA...So still lots of quotations that will need to be answered over the next few days..This does have the possibility of becoming a major snow storm for the area.....

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

FA should be under a high pressure system so a break in the action,though it may very well be shorted lived..Details below...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.....

We will be watching yet another storm system moving into the area.....ECMWF model show a 982 MB low pressure over KS...Though I think that may be overdone.....Said low is forecasted to lift Northeast towards SW IA by Sunday...Than through Central WI Sunday night into Monday....GFS model is also showing the same track..System has penalty of cold air to work with..So another possible winter storm on it's way.....

To sum it all up...Cold and wet period through out the forecast area...Everyone will still be asking where is spring.....