My AFD

Short term through middle term sure not a lot to talk about...Long term into the longer term a little more to hash out...
Main story will be the above norms temps through mid-week than cooling of by the upcoming weekend into early next week...Did pull the mix precip from tonight's forecast over our far Northern zones of MN...Also pulled out rain/thunder from Saturday's forecast...And went with a mix of snow,rain for Saturday night and Sunday....Longer term looks to be an active one with a more Arctic air will rear it's ugly head once again,along with some snow events...So enjoy the warm air over the next few days as it won't last much longer...Looks like after this week and the upcoming weekend we drop back to below norms until April..Lets hope the models are way wrong on this...

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps rather mild for this time of year..This is where our highs should be at for the most part...Temps range from the lower to middle 30s...With some upper 20s being reported in our colder spots..Here in Rice Lake the temps at the office is 28.6..Areas of fog also showing up in the SFC OBS this morning across much of my MN zones,mainly do to the melting of the deeper snow pack in them areas.Rest of the FA is showing clear skies...Winds are light out of the South at this hour..



SFC ANALYSIS....

Pesky frontal boundary still hung up over Southern Canada this morning..This has kept off and on clouds through far Northern zones of MN over night..Other than that most of the FA has been controlled by high pressure.This morning's fog should burn off rather fast...However look for fog once again in the same areas...As this is where the deep snow pack remains and is melting slowly away..We do find an area of a 998 MB low pressure over Central MT..This will end up being a player in our weather by Tuesday/Tuesday night's time frame...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY....

Frontal boundary over Southern Canada is forecasted to slowly lift Northwards as a warm front...Southerly winds today through Monday will bring the FA mild temps upper 40s to middle 50s seem plausible...With lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s...
On Mon we see a thro starting to work towards the area..Won't make it as is forecasted to wash out...by 12z Tue we find a low pressure over SW MN with a one cold front/Wind shift line moving through our MN zones..The second cold front is forecast to move through and catch up to the first one..This will allow for temps to cool back off to either side of norms..I have kept forecast dry as moisture seems rather scant for system to work with....Temps drop back off into the 30s by upcoming weekend....

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY....

Did run with a mixed precip for this time frame as a 1001 MB low pressure drops South out of Southern Canada/NE ND..by 00z Tuesday low should be over Central WI....We may have to change this to an all rain event....

LONGER TERM ( TUE MAR 24 THROUGH TUE MAR 31)

We start this period near norms however by the middle and end of this time frame temps drop back to below norms..Everyone will be asking where is spring....We will have off and on chances at some snow events...Some which could bring us some accumulating snows..More on that through out this upcoming week and next weekend as we head towards that time frame....