AFD

Forecast problems...Fog this morning...Temps through the short and middle term...Thunderstorm chances,heavy rain threat,than rain/snow chances....

CURRENT CONDITIONS......

Fog is the main story this morning,some which is dense with less than 1/4 mile VIS...Temps starting off in the lower 30s over the fresh snow...Middle 30s elsewhere's.Winds are rather light this morning..

SFC ANALYSIS.....

Low pressure over Central MN this morning..We see our next trouble maker along the Western States this morning....
Let get to the details of this troubled forecast...

Today Through Monday.....

Low over MN is forecasted to wash out into a weak trof and slide Southeast,than is forecasted to become a warm front by Sunday night and works it's way back Northeast...Meanwhile a 1004 MB low pressure is forecasted to move Southeast out of Canada into MT by 00z Sunday Than low is forecasted to track back into Canada,mean time we find 998 MB low pressure taken shape over Eastern CO..By 12z Monday said low should not make to much of a travel..Only moving into far Western KS...That area looks to be primed for severe thunderstorms.....Southerly winds up in our neck of the woods will usher in warmer air,however today temps are going to be a problem...If we can burn off the fog soon enough temps should get close to 50 mark...Though with 1 to 3 inches of snow that feel yesterday afternoon that will also hold the temps down some..So if we can burn this fog off and get some sunshine to melt the snow pack before prim time heating sets in..Temps may have to upped in forecast...If not temps may have to be bumped down some..Will keep forecast dry until Sunday night,though will have a chance of some FRN drizzle up in out Northern areas of MN....Sunday night System pulls moisture from the GOM...So will have widespread rain....P_water increase to almost 2 inches through out much of the FA..Will toes some thunder into the mix in our Southern zones as LIS increase to -1 - to -2....

Tuesday through Friday....

This period gets interesting....Heavy rainfall is a possibility...Will keep thunder alive for Tuesday over our Central and Southern Zones..990 Mb low pressure is forecasted to eject out of CO/Ks and move towards North Central NE by Tuesday morning...By later Tuesday afternoon early evening said low is forecasted to move into far Eastern SD/far Western MN ..By Wed afternoon said low is forecast to be in far Northern MN..Should mainly be a rain event,however colder air does get pulled into the area so rain should mix and change over to all snow...This could bring accumulating snows to the area....To early to say how much or where...Though looks like a winter storm is possible on Tuesday night and Wednesday....

Longer term (SAT 28 th through Mon APR 6th)....

Low pressure is forecasted by GS to move Northeast into Windy city by 12z Sat...We will have to watch this system as if the track goes more West we could be dealing with another rain/snow storm event for the upcoming weekend...Another interesting system showing up over NE on 12z Mon..This is forecasted to move East into SW WI by 00z Tue...Winter Critical thickness values would indicate snow for the area 850 MB temps also pointing that way...700 MB temps show all snow...System pulls away from the area Tuesday night.....Then after that a chance of off and on rain and snow...Temps start this period on the cold side as Arctic air is hold strong..Temps ranging from -4c to -12c through April 6th...So the way it looks now this period should see below norms in the temp dept,along with at least one good snow event...We shall see...