My AFD

Tonight,don't forget to set you clocks ahead one hour before going to bed....

My AFD......
Forecast problems snow chances,Arctic air as NW flows kicks in once again.....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps starting out cooler than yesterday...middle teens to the middle 20s for the most part...SFC OBS...Some stations are reporting some flurries....Skies range from fair to cloudy across the FA...As a cold front drifts through...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

Cold front now pushing through the FA ...One deck of clouds that did mange to produce some light snow/flurries..A 1024 MB high pressure over Southern parts of ND...We find a 1001 MB low pressure system over Western KS this morning.....Clouds and some light precip has made it's way Northward into Southern and Central WI..This area should remain South of the FA...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT......

For the most High pressure will stay in control of our weather today..Temps will be cooler today as cold front is forecasted to clear the FA...By 18Z today we find our FA under control of a 1020 MB high pressure wind will be light under partly to mostly cloudy skies..Tonight the high moves away form the area,this will allow the storm system to the South west to start blanking the area with clouds.....Temps are forecaster to fall into the upper teens to lower 20s...

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....

Here is where a few problems creep into the forecast,though models seem to have a better handle on this system....
06Z SUNDAY 1004 MB low pressure is forecasted to lift out of SE KS..By 12Z Sun...Low should be in the Northern parts of MO...BY 00Z Monday said low should be in Southern MI.....This spread snow into our far Southern areas of MN,and through out much of our WI FA...Best chance at seeing a few inches of snow will be in our far Southern zones of WI...In my Northern areas of WI should see light snow with a dusting to as much as an inch....System takes the snow and clouds out of the areas late Sun night...

MONDAY...

FA will be under a weak area of high pressure......

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT....

More headaches for forecasters through the upper Mid West....
Both GFS and ECMWF models are starting to eye to eye with this storm system...One big difference is the track...
We see a 1002 MB low pressure take form in TX/OK panhandle area...This system is forecast to race Northeast towards Northeast WI and deepen to around 994 MBS...This system is forecasted to drag warm air North into the Southern areas of WI...This would keep a mixed bag of snow,rain,sleet..Before changing to all snow.For those areas...While a snow event for the rest of our FA.Right now looks like most of our MN and far Northern WI zones have the best shot at seeing a big snow event...Looks like some thunderstorm activity in the card in the warm sector over our Southern WI Zones as lapse rates increase through out the day Tue...Strong 1038 -1040 MB Arctic high pressure will try to build into the area at the same time this will increase pressure gradients,so this system will have to watched closely for blizzard conditions to form over our MN zones...Our WI zones should see some blowing snow also though with lower amounts here should not be to much of a problem....
This is way out in time so this could all change...Will mainly talk about this system in tomorrow's update...One thing is for sure Arctic air will plow back into the area after this storm system pulls away...I may have temps to warm still...Temps should easy fall to the single to teens below zero,with highs barely making it out of the lower teens above.....Did use old reliable ECMWF for most of the details...As this model as been the model of choice for most forecasters this winter.....However did blend in some blend in some details from GFS....
No long term forecast today,and tomorrow...As we are watching this major snowstorm unfold...