The Forecast(AFD)

Not a lot to talk about in this forecast package...Short term through the long term Fri Mar 20 For the most part peaceful weather on tap with a nice big warm up..Just what everyone needs right about as cabin fever has set in big time in most people....How long will the warm air last? Lets find out shall we?

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps this morning start out rather warm with temps in the middle to upper 20 across much of the FA,,Some teen showing up over the deeper snow pack areas....Here at the office 21 right now...Satellite is showing an area of Clouds through our Central areas of MN into our WI zones,,Those clouds have been decreasing in coverage over the last few hours,do except that trend to continue...Winds for the most part are light out of the South...Radar is picking up on some returns up in Canada,That area may brush our extreme areas of Northern MN this morning,Though the area is moving Northeast there may be some back building to it over the hour or so per meso scale model...


SFC ANALYSIS....

This morning we find a large area of 1025 MB high pressure centered over Northern MO..Meanwhile we find a cold front just North of our MN Border...

TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY....

Cold front to our North is forecasted to drop to the South through out the day,However this front shall remain North of the area,Will have some mixed precip up in our Northern Zones MN whereas the best moisture is pooling,though not a lot...For the part this should just be a cloud maker up there....By Sunday afternoon the whole FA should be basking under mostly sunny skies and warmer temps....Lower to middle 50s seem plausible...With lows in the 30s.....Temps do cool back down to norms by mid week as that pesky upper level Northwest flow kicks back in...Will run with a dry forecast through this period....

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Did run with some rain/thunder as a system dives Southeast into the area..Temps will rebound back to above norms,however that should be short lived as we see in the longer term forecast below....

Longer term ( Mar 23 through Mar 30)......

Mon we start the new work week with temps near norms..Temps cool back off to slightly below norms Wed through Thu as more Arctic air tries to battle for control of the FA..850 MB temps do cool off to around the -8c to -4c by Friday and hold through Mon..Looks like the Arctic air will win this battle through this time frame as we head right back to below norms for this time of year once again...Which seems to be a broken record through out this winter/early spring....As far as precip goes,well lets take a look at it...Mon through Tue will have to hold on to rain chances as low pressure moves South of the area..Thermal profiles attm would suggest mainly rain with a switch over to some snow before ending..Next system moves in for Thu Thermal profiles indicate rain in our Southern zones of MN and WI,while our Northern areas of MN would see all snow,however with 850 MB temps colder than 0c that would suggest all snow through out the whole FA as one low pressure moves North of the areas and another one moves South of the area and inverted trof should be setting up over the FA between the two areas of low pressure systems...My confidence levels are low in this period do to the fact of the factors above...Sat we find another low pressure dropping South out of Canada..This 1014 MB low has all the makings of a clipper like system with cold air at the SFC and upper levels looks like a snow producer for the FA QPF increases to around 0.25 inches..The winter critical line sets up to our South over IA...We will have to watch this to see how it really unfolds when we get closer to that time frame..A weaker system right its heals for Sun night into Mon once again should be all snow per thermal profiles....
My confidence level is really low in this longer term forecast attm..