Cold and snowy forecast

Forecast concerns...Very cold air mass,two possible snow storms for the area...Everyone in the Northwood have been asking me over the past week now...Where is spring ? People in the Southern plains Will also be asking the same question...Weather pattern through out much of the CONUS sure does look like a winter one,sure not a spring one...This has been forecasted by my staff,and myself through out late Feb into early Mar,so it should really come as no big shock...Everyone is starting to get grumpy as we all await for warmer temps...When will that happen...We shall see here soon......Lots to hash out so let dive right into it....

CURRENT CONDITIONS......

Looking at the SFC OBS this morning we see temps are starting of in middle teens with a few areas hitting the lower 20s...Here at the office we are at 14.3° Skies range from clear to mostly cloudy..Some spotty light flurries being reported at a few of the stations....

SFC ANALYSIS......

This morning's weather map we find a few areas of interest...First off we find a 1031 MB high pressure reaching from just West of Hudson Bay Canada down into Northern WY...Cold front that dived through the are over night is now Reaching from the windy City back through Central MO then reaching into the TX panhandle where we run into a 994 MB low pressure system...What is interesting is this storm system is forecasted to bring snow to much of Northern TX and through out OK,then through out the OH and TN Valleys,along with parts of the Great Lakes area....

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.....

TROF sliding through my FA will keep clouds alive through out the day may still see a flurries off and on mainly this morning before drier air moves into the FA...Cloud cover will hold temps down in the low 30s once again today....Tonight 1022 MB high pressure builds into the area....Still should see mostly cloudy skies,however skies should slowly start clear out as we move into the morning hours...Temps fall back into the middle to upper teens...Saturday the FA should be enjoying lots of sunshine with temps in the middle to upper 30s..Lows in the lower 20s..Both highs and lows are still below norms for this time of year..Sunday FA still under the high pressure system so mostly sunny skies temps do warm to the upper 30s to low 40s...Still not where they should be yet...Low Sunday night fall back into the lower 20s....Lets talk about the major winter storm that had our name all over last weekend,but now will stay well to the South....
997 MB low is forecasted to move from North Central TX into Northern AR then push Northeast into far SW IN,from there the low is forecasted to move Northeast into South Central MI then into Northeast MI right through the thumb area...This system has enough clod air to lay down a good solid snow pack just North and Northwest of the track..This will also be a very windy system...Anyone with travel plans into and through that area should listen to more updates on this forming major winter storm..This system should effect Southeastern WI whereas much as 8 inches or more of snow could fall.....Ok back to my FA...This system may spread some high to mid level clouds into the area,nothing more than that.....

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.....

Lets start off with temps since that will be easy...Temps still forecasted to be colder than norms through out this time frame..Highs in the 30s to lower 40s with lows in the lower to middle 20s...Ok now on to the hard part.....What I find very remarkable is that GFS and ECMWF models are for the most part agreeing on the track of another major winter storm.Though I feel GFS is more West than it should be,So I have decide to blend the two models.Leaned more in line with the thinking of the ECMWF model,as this has been the model of choice all winter and so far into this early spring..This one has it's eyes set on my FA...Finer details....We find a 987 MB low pressure taking shape over the Northeastern part of CO...Though ECMWF has been very bullhead in the strength from the get go,I still feel the start of this system is to strong...Nevertheless this won't matter much in our forecast....The low is forecasted to move into Southeastern part of NE then into Southern WI,as it moves into WI this low should be around 994 MBS....System has enough cold air to produce heavy snow through out my FA Tuesday into Wednesday's time frame...No April fools day joke I may add.....May be dealing with thundersnow also has LIS increase to around the 0c mark and Cape increases to around 250 to 400 J/KG..Over my Central and Southern forecast areas...System still close enough to the area on Thurs to give us some backwash light snow/flurries ....

LONGER TERM (FRIDAY APR 3 THROUGH SUN APR 12).....

Temps start this period below climatologically norms...No shock there is it?....Will it warm up we shall find out later...
By Sat we will be watching a clipper like system moving into the area for late Sat into Sun...This system has enough cold air to produce all snow...By 00z Tue we see a deep area of low pressure over Northern MO We will have to keep an eye on this system...SFC temps showing around the 32 while the 700 MBS temp around -9c If this is the case we may be dealing with an ice storm before switching over to all snow on Tuesday as colder air gets pulled back into the area...Still some problems this far out,nonetheless something we will need to watch...Ok so the big question is...Well spring shows it's face ?.....Well no it won't temps are forecasted to remain well below norms for this time of year through this time frame......

So temps remain below norms through this entire forecast cycle with above precip,which looks like it will fall in the form of snow for the most part.....